NFL Week 7 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy (2024)
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 7 NFL survivor pool strategy, previewing his favorite survivor picks of the week as well as teams to watch out for.
Week 7 NFL Survivor Revival
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NFL Week 7 Survivor Strategy and Picks
If you have already been eliminated from your NFL Survivor pool this year, you are not alone. This has been among the worst seasons in the history of football for “big favorites” of 6+ points. According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, NFL underdogs of 6+ points are 11-8 SU and 16-2-1 ATS through 5 weeks. This is the first time since 1960 that dogs of 6+ points are over .500 SU this late into the season.
Our teams to trust are 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS since the beginning of 2023. Our teams on upset alert are 5-10 ATS in that same time period, with 5 of those teams losing outright as greater than a touchdown favorite
This weekly article will primarily focus on NFL Survivor Revival contests going forward. If you are looking for any advice on games not mentioned in this article, don’t hesitate to reach out to CommishFilmRoom on Twitter or @nickgalaida in the RotoGrinders Discord! Our goal is to continue providing high-quality research and survivor options for the remainder of this NFL season.
Below, we have our list of red flags, in no particular order of importance, to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when choosing your team:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
My Week 7 NFL Survivor Pick: Buffalo Bills
In Week 6, Buffalo’s offense led the entire NFL in success rate, proving that their struggles from the previous 2 weeks had more to do with injuries than anything else. Josh Allen looked every bit like an MVP candidate, completing 19-of-25 passes and accounting for 3 total touchdowns. The Bills defense was excellent as well, finishing the week ranked 7th in success rates allowed.
Meanwhile, Will Levis was busy posting one of the worst quarterback performances of the 2024 season. Facing an underwhelming Indianapolis defense, Levis completed only 16-of-27 pass attempts for 95 yards. He finished the week ranked 26th out of 28 starting quarterbacks in EPA/play and 28th in success rate against a defense that posted the 4th-worst EPA/play in the entire NFL the week prior – against Jacksonville, no less.
Simply, this is one of the most lopsided matchups of the Week 7 slate. This is a good spot to burn the Bills in second-chance survivor leagues since they have very few remaining easy games left on their schedule.
Week 7 Survivor Fade: Los Angeles Rams
The Raiders appeared to have been run off of their home field in Week 6, losing 32-13 to the Steelers. However, a closer look at the numbers indicates that Las Vegas was much more competitive in that contest than the final score suggests. Pittsburgh only had two more first downs and only 18 more yards of total offense than Las Vegas. The Raiders offense actually had a higher success rate for the afternoon, but they lost the turnover battle 3-0, which led to their demise.
Matthew Stafford and the Rams are coming off of a much-needed bye week, but it’s still unclear why oddsmakers have priced them as a touchdown favorite given the overall state of their roster. Through 6 weeks, the Rams defense ranks 31st in EPA/play and 30th in success rate. They have been hit hard by the injury bug on both sides of the ball, which doesn’t help their case here either. The potential return of Cooper Kupp is leading to a lot of interest in Los Angeles against a seemingly irredeemable opponent, but this game has all the makings of a contest that could go down to the wire. Proceed with caution.
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