NFL Week 8 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy (2023)
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 8 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as possible upsets.
NFL Week 8 Survivor Strategy and Picks
In traditional survivor pools, participants are required to select a winner of one NFL game straight-up each week. In eliminator tournaments, the rules are more challenging – allowing participants to use a team only one time throughout the course of the regular season. In 2023, this means that participants will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season. Consequently, there will be weeks when you will not be able to select an elite roster with a favorable matchup.
Each week in this RotoGrinders article, we will identify one trustworthy favorite and pick one favorite that is on upset alert. During the first nine weeks of last season, four of our teams that were on upset alert lost outright, despite all of those teams being favored by at least one score at the time of writing.
Below, we have our list of red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when choosing your team:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Trust this team in Week 8: Detroit Lions
Week 1 Trust this team: Baltimore Ravens (Result: Won 25-9 against the Houston Texans)
Week 2 Trust this team: Dallas Cowboys (Result: Won 30-10 against the New York Jets)
Week 3 Trust this team: San Francisco 49ers (Result: Won 30-12 against the New York Giants)
Week 4 Trust this team: Los Angeles Chargers (Result: Won 24-17 against the Las Vegas Raiders)
Week 5 Trust this team: Miami Dolphins (Result: Won 31-16 against the New York Giants)
Week 6 Trust this team: Kansas City Chiefs (Result: Won 19-8 against the Denver Broncos)
Week 7 Trust this team: Seattle Seahawks (Result: Won 20-10 against the Arizona Cardinals)
This is not a betting article, but it is worth noting that each of our first seven survivor recommendations have covered the spread this season. During the early portion of the season, we have done a great job avoiding tightly-contested games, which is where the most variance and the toughest heartbreaks tend to occur. In Week 8, we hope to have another easy winner with the Detroit Lions – a team that we have been saving for this exact moment.
In Week 7, the Lions were embarrassed, but at least they were embarrassed by a quality opponent. Their Week 8 matchup features the Las Vegas Raiders, a team that was embarrassed by Tyson Bagent and the rest of the Chicago B-Team Bears. In the loss, Brian Hoyer and Aidan O’Connell each threw an interception and neither averaged more than 5.8 passing yards per attempt, despite playing one of the worst secondary units in the NFL. The running game was non-existent, totaling 39 rushing yards on 14 carries for the afternoon. The Raiders allowed the second-string Chicago offense to go 8-for-13 on third-down and out-gain them by 88 yards of total offense.
The primary problem for Detroit this past Sunday was the fact that they had seemingly no idea how to defend the dual-threat ability of Lamar Jackson, allowing him to throw for three touchdowns and add another score on the ground with his legs. At one point during the game, Jackson held on to the ball for an incredulous 9.8 seconds before tossing an easy completion into the back of the end zone for six points. Detroit could not get pressure on Jackson when they blitzed and they could not defend receivers long enough when they only sent a standard rush after the quarterback, which led to an abysmal defensive showing for their defensive unit.
Nevertheless, their task should be much easier this upcoming week against a Las Vegas team that is lacking talent at nearly every position on their roster. The Raiders are 3-10 on the road since the beginning of last season while the Lions are 7-5 at home in that same stretch, with each of their losses coming by four points or less against the Eagles, Seahawks (twice), Dolphins, and Bills. The Raiders are nowhere near as talented as any of those teams, and they are nowhere near as talented as the 2023 Lions, even with their flaws.
Per Clevanalytics, home favorites of between 7-14 points won 82.1% of their games straight up from 2018 to 2022. Looking at our available options for Week 8, this is a no-brainer for those who have been tailing since the beginning of the year.
Week 8 Survivor Fade: Buffalo Bills
Week 1 Fade: Kansas City Chiefs (Result: Lost 21-20 against the Detroit Lions)
Week 2 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Won 38-10 against the Detroit Lions)
Week 3 Fade: Philadelphia Eagles (Result: Won 25-11 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Week 4 Fade: Dallas Cowboys (Result: Won 38-3 against the New England Patriots)
Week 5 Fade: Washington Commanders (Result: Lost 40-20 against the Chicago Bears)
Week 6 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Won 14-9 against the New York Giants)
Week 7 Fade: San Francisco 49ers (Result: Lost 22-17 against the Minnesota Vikings)
To qualify as a “Survivor Fade,” a team must be at least a 6-point favorite at the time of writing. Through seven weeks, three of our seven ‘teams to fade’ have lost outright and four have failed to cover the spread. In Week 7, we warned the community about the 16.5-point favorite Buffalo Bills, which needed a goal-line stand on the final play of the game to escape with a narrow 14-9 victory. In Week 7, we encouraged everyone to avoid the San Francisco 49ers, which lost 22-17 to the 2-4 Minnesota Vikings.
In Week 8, we are once again raising the red flag for Josh Allen and the Bills.
Coming back from London, we warned that Buffalo had lost two of their best defensive players to injury – linebacker Matt Milano and defensive lineman DaQuan Jones. This was in addition to already having lost cornerback Tre’Davious White for the season due to injury. According to Rich Hribar, the Bills have now played 209 snaps this fall on defense without all of Milano, Jones, and White. On those snaps, they rank 24th in yards allowed per play, 30th in opponent quarterback rating, 29th in defensive success rate, and 32nd in third-down rate.
Entering play in Week 7, Mac Jones and the New England Patriots had averaged 12.0 points per game on offense. The Bills allowed the Patriots to score 29 points this past weekend, with Jones completing 25-of-30 pass attempts for 272 passing yards.
Buffalo has been out-gained in three consecutive contests, facing the Jaguars, Giants, and Patriots. At a minimum, they have no business being an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday Night Football – even against Baker Mayfield and the underwhelming Tampa Bay Buccaneers.