NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 12 - Page 2
Jacksonville at Houston
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Houston Texans | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Reliant Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 10 | 43.5 | 16.75 | -10 | 43.5 | 26.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 12.9 | 32 | 22 | 32 | Offense | 19.3 | 27 | 9 | 12 | |
| Defense | 31.8 | 31 | 24 | 32 | Defense | 27.6 | 28 | 1 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Houston | 11 | 14 | 5 | 18 | Jacksonville | 31 | 26 | 17 | 31 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Shorts | 95 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | Johnson | 113 | 11.3 | 14.0 | 17.0 | |
| Brown | 30 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 3.0 | Hopkins | 61 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | |
| Sanders | 42 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 10.0 | Martin | 19 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 5.0 | |
| Lewis | 19 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 7.0 | Graham | 54 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 13.0 | |
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags returned to their losing ways last weekend at home against the Cardinals. They managed just 14 points and a strong first half for Chad Henne after a long connection to Danny Noble turned into a disaster by the 3rd quarter. The Jaguars rank dead last on PFF’s offensive ratings for both rushing and passing offense. The passing game will likely be without one of their better receivers since Justin Blackmon was sent home for the year, as Mike Brown hasn’t practiced all week and could sit this one out. Brown’s targets had been dropping anyways but it does look like Ace Sanders, who was targeted 10 times in Week 11, will see a more pronounced role. The matchup is tough though, as they travel to Houston to face a defense that has yet to allow a 300 yard passer while only one WR has gone over 100 yards against their secondary all season. They’ve lost a ton of close games, but their pass defense doesn’t seem to be as vulnerable as some of their rankings would indicate.
On the ground it’s been no picnic for Jacksonville either, although Maurice Jones-Drew has been able to post double digit fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games, and posted over 15 FP in 2 of those 5. Houston is coming off a week where they allowed their first 100+ yard rusher, but most of that came on one huge run from Rashad Jennings of the Raiders. The Jags have also tried to feature MJD more in the passing game of late, and he’s now been targeted 16 times over the past 3 games.
Houston Texans
It’s a dream matchup for a struggling team but we can start with the news that Case Keenum will draw the start on Sunday. After being pulled a week ago, Keenum will start over Schaub and for the first time since Keenum has been put in that role that means good things for Garrett Graham. Graham had caught just 9 balls in Keenum’s previous 3 starts on 17 targets. Last week, in the first 2.5 quarters when Keenum was still on the field, Case repeatedly went to Graham. He targeted him 10 times despite Graham losing a fumble on his first reception, and Keenum throwing an INT while targeting Graham on their third possession. Graham draws a Jacksonville defense that has allowed 3 TDs and 184 yards to opposing TE #1’s so far this season. The other matchup to watch is Andre Johnson, who surprisingly only allowed their 2nd 100+ yard receiver of 2013 in Week 11. But in case you forgot, here was the stat line from Andre in Week 11 of the 2012-13 Season:
Andre Johnson vs. JAX – Week 11 (2012): 19 targets, 14 receptions, 273 yards, 1 TD
That line speaks for itself, so we’ll move onto Houston’s rushing attack. Ben Tate lead all running backs in Week 11 in total snaps, as he was on the field for 68 offensive plays. There is no other threat to his job with Foster on IR, so Tate should continue to be the every down back in Houston with an occasional breather mixed in here and there. As far as matchup goes, the Jags defense has been sneaky solid over the past two weeks. They held Chris Johnson and Shonn Greene to 52 total yards on 21 carries and then last week held Ellington and Mendenhall to 17 yards on 21 carries.
JAX @ HOU – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Case Keenum – Looking at the 10-point spread, it’s a safe bet that Keenum will be protecting a lead in this game which should limit his upside for tournaments. But the matchup is too good to ignore and it’s possible that the Texans let Keenum chuck it regardless of score, as their season is already all but over and they want to see if he’s a viable long term option. His price also dropped on every site except FantasyFeud this week, so you’ll be able to get him significantly cheaper than in Week 11.
- Ben Tate – Get ready because I’m going to list every major Houston player. Tate is next up and my biggest concern with him is upside. I haven’t seen him show the ability to post a 25 point fantasy game that you may need to win a tournament. He’s likely a H2H and 50/50 play, but also has a site-specific caveat. He’s the 8th and 7th highest priced running back on DS and DD respectively. That compares to between 13th-17th on all other sites. Pick him up where he’s cheap.
- Andre Johnson – Jacksonville’s secondary seems slightly underrated to me but Johnson’s upside with Keenum can’t be denied. The last 4 weeks he has 5 touchdowns on 28 catches and 471 yards receiving. Let me repeat that. 471 yards receiving. He’s in play in all formats, and has great value on FanDuel at $7700.
- Garrett Graham – I broke Graham down at length in the Houston write-up, so I won’t go into too much more detail here, except to say he’s a GPP play only. He had one huge game following 5 duds, so don’t overpay and don’t be disappointed if he has another bust. I’d avoid him on FanDuel and Feud, where he’s the 8th highest priced TE this week (as compared to DK/DS where he’s 15th).
NY Jets at Baltimore
| New York Jets | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | M&T Bank Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 4 | 40 | 18 | -4 | 40 | 22 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.3 | 31 | 29 | 8 | Offense | 20.8 | 25 | 19 | 27 | |
| Defense | 26.8 | 27 | 23 | 1 | Defense | 21.2 | 8 | 13 | 11 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore | 17 | 2 | 18 | 17 | NY Jets | 20 | 1 | 25 | 26 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Hill | 54 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 7.0 | Smith | 92 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 8.0 | |
| Nelson | 28 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | Brown | 46 | 5.8 | 6.0 | ||
| Holmes | 32 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 8.0 | Doss | 33 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 5.0 | |
| Cumberland | 26 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | Clark | 46 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 4.0 | |
NY Jets
Win one, lose one, win one, lose one, win one, lose one. If the trend continues, they should go into Baltimore and knock off the Ravens right? They’ll have to beat that 4 point spread that’s going in their opponent’s favor. This game pits two of the best rush defenses in the NFL and should be fun to watch for old-timey football fanatics. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean a whole lot for daily-fantasy value. Worth noting for the Jets is that they’re 6th in the NFL in terms of rush play percentage, running on 47% of downs. Chris Ivory has emerged in the past couple of weeks to go for 120 and 93 yards respectively. But this might not be the best spot for Ivory, as he doesn’t do much in the passing game and that seems to be Baltimore’s most vulnerable area defensively. Last week they allowed Forte to catch 5 balls for 40+ yards and a TD. The week before, Bernard was able to catch 8 balls for 37 yards and 1 TD. That may open the door for Bilal Powell to see more opportunities, but neither are overly exciting options.
In the passing game, Geno Smith hasn’t topped 200 yards passing in any of his last 3 games. The return of Santonio Holmes is intriguing though, as he was targeted 8 teams in Week 11 and is expected to play again this weekend. His style of play would seem to fit well against the physical Ravens. The Ravens secondary has been really exploitable for daily fantasy purposes in recent weeks also. They’ve allowed a 100+ yard receiver in 4 of their last 6. Predicting that in this Jets offense though would be a reach.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens got back to their ground and pound style of play against the Bears in a surreal scene in Week 11. Ray Rice finally got it going and broke free for over 100 yards for the first time all season. He did so against a soft Bears front 7 though, and that is something he won’t see again against these Jets. The Jets defensive line is the best in football. They’re young, talented and play with a chip on their shoulder that makes them downright nasty to play against. Only 2 running backs have topped 50 yards against them all season, and neither of those two went over 75 yards. Since I won’t list him further down, I’ll clarify here. Avoid Rice this weekend. Statistically, he’s a bad play.
The Ravens best angle against the Jets will be through the air. Last week New York allowed Marquise Goodwin and T.J. Graham to total 150 receiving yards and 2 scores. Goodwin and Graham were able to get over the top of the Jets secondary for a couple of big plays, much like Torrey Smith will try to do in Week 12. According to ProFootballFocus, Torrey Smith average depth of passes where he’s targeted is over 15 yards. That’s the most of any WR1 in the NFL. A fair comparison of that depth of target rating is Nate Washington, who also averaged 15 yards per target and was able to grab four balls for 105 yards and a score in an earlier matchup vs. NYJ. The Ravens passing game overall remains muddled. Flacco targeted 8 different players in Week 11 and Smith was most targeted at 8.
NYJ @ BAL – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Joe Flacco – The Jets rank 20th against opposing quarterbacks and Flacco can be had at an extreme bargain on DraftStreet and DraftDay this week, where he’s the 23rd and 24th most expensive QB. He’s a GPP play on all sites though, as his salary is reasonable across the board.
- Torrey Smith – I broke it down above, but Smith is a tremendous tournament play this weekend. The Jets rank 25th against opposing WRs and the two prices that jump out at me are $6200 on FanDuel and $5400 on DraftKings this weekend.
Minnesota at Green Bay
| Minnesota Vikings | Green Bay Packers | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Lambeau Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 4.5 | 44 | 19.75 | -4.5 | 44 | 24.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.0 | 14 | 25 | 16 | Offense | 25.8 | 7 | 5 | 6 | |
| Defense | 32.0 | 32 | 29 | 14 | Defense | 23.9 | 18 | 21 | 12 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Green Bay | 21 | 17 | 21 | 22 | Minnesota | 30 | 28 | 24 | 30 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Jennings | 59 | 6.6 | 6.5 | Nelson | 81 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 9.0 | ||
| Simpson | 65 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 | Jones | 45 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 6.0 | |
| Patterson | 37 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 9.0 | Boykin | 44 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 8.0 | |
| Carlson | 33 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 7.0 | Bostick | 4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | |
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings look to bounce back from a 41-20 drumming at the hands of the Seahawks in Green Bay this weekend. For Minnesota, their offense goes as Adrian Peterson does. When these two teams met earlier in the year, Peterson managed just 60 yards on 13 carries with a TD. The Packers have struggled this season against premiere running backs, so the possibility of an AP explosion is definitely there, but his ceiling has been reduced drastically this year. Since Week 4, he’s only broke 100 yards once. Still their offense ranks 6th in the NFL in rush rating on PFF and the Vikings have been more focused on keeping the ball on the ground in recent weeks. They’ve run on 45% of plays over their past 3 games, compared to their 40% season average.
Through the air, Ponder will look to exploit a good matchup that he struggled with at home in Week 8. In that game, Ponder had just 145 passing yards. He also didn’t target a single receiver more than 4 times. The difference now is that the Vikings finally seem ready to unleash Cordarrelle Patterson, which could spell trouble for the Packers secondary. Patterson had just 3 catches for 32 yards last weekend, but he did see a season high 9 targets as well as a season high 58% snap count. He’s ultra talented and is Minnesota’s best option in the passing game.
Green Bay Packers
The Rodgers-less Packers will head into Sunday’s game against the rival Vikings needing a win to stay afloat in the NFC North. Rodgers could return as early as next week, so a win without him in uniform would go a long way for this team’s shrinking confidence. It’ll be Scott Tolzien to the rescue again, and he showed some positive signs in Week 11 against the Giants. His biggest struggle has been turnovers, but luckily this week he faces a Minnesota defense that is averaging just 0.8 interceptions per game on the season and has 1 total INT in their last 6 games. Also worth noting is Tolzien’s target breakdown through 2 games:
Nelson (18 targets), Boykin (21 targets), Jones (13 targets), Quarless (7 targets), Bostick (4 targets), Lacy (4 targets), Kuhn (5 targets)
On the ground, the Vikings are stronger than the defense vs. position stats would indicate. They’re allowing opposing backs to just 88 rush yards per game on the season. Where they’ve been killed is in the screen game. They allow the 2nd most receiving yards to opposing backs, at 55.3 yards per game. In their Week 8 matchup, Lacy caught the 2nd most balls of his year with 4 receptions (although for just 18 total yards). Lacy doesn’t provide a whole lot of value as a receiver in general, but in that Week 8 game he did find pay dirt while tallying 94 yards rushing.
MIN @ GB – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Scott Tolzien – Tolzien is in play on a number of sites this weekend, including FD, DD, FF, SS and FTD. He’s priced in the bottom fourth of quarterbacks on those sites and could be a nice bargain bin value. Where I’d avoid Tolzien is on DraftKings where he’s somehow the 15th most expensive QB at $6700. On all sites he’s a GPP play only. The matchup is really strong here and as mentioned above, MIN doesn’t force many turnovers so he should be able to avoid increasing the 5 interceptions through 2 games rate he has going now.
- Eddie Lacy – Minnesota’s rush defense might be a bit underrated, but Lacy should see a heavy dose of touches as the Packers are 4.5 point favorites and will take no chances on losing a potential lead. Starks should be back and healthy, which will bite into his workload slightly, but overall he’s a very safe play for cash games with decent upside for tournaments.
- Jordy Nelson and Jarrett Boykin – These two are dominating targets with Tolzien and both are right around 200 yards receiving over the past 2 weeks. Boykin’s price has risen a little above what I’d want to pay on the majority of sites, but he’s included here because he’s $4400 on DraftKings which is an extreme value for his recent production. Jordy is pretty similarly priced across the board as a Top-10 WR.
- Adrian Peterson – There are two ways this game can go. The first is that Minnesota continues to struggle to force turnovers and Tolzien is able to post a solid game, leaving AP irrelevant in the rushing game. The second is that Tolzien continues to turn the ball over, leaving cheap short yard situations for Peterson to pick up yards and scores. I’m not a fortune-teller, but if it goes the 2nd way then AP can have a huge day.
- John Carlson – I almost forgot about Carlson, who comes in as an extreme value option against a Packers defense that ranks 22nd against opposing tight ends. In the two games since Rudolph went down, Carlson’s stat lines have been:
Week 10 vs. WAS: – 7 targets, 7 receptions, 98 yards, 1 TD
Week 11 vs. SEA: – 7 targets, 5 receptions, 69 yards
Considering he’s $5K on FanDuel and DraftStreet, and just $3.3K on DraftKings, he makes for one of the better ‘punt’ options at the tight end position on Sunday.
Tampa Bay at Detroit
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Ford Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 9 | 48.5 | 19.75 | -9 | 48.5 | 28.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.7 | 30 | 30 | 13 | Offense | 26.5 | 6 | 3 | 21 | |
| Defense | 23.7 | 16 | 18 | 9 | Defense | 25.3 | 22 | 30 | 5 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Detroit | 23 | 13 | 31 | 11 | Tampa Bay | 27 | 11 | 19 | 14 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Jackson | 113 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 12.0 | Johnson | 109 | 12.1 | 15.0 | 13.0 | |
| Underwood | 17 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | Durham | 56 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 9.0 | |
| Owusu | 7 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Broyles | 14 | 2.3 | |||
| Wright | Pettigrew | 51 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |||||
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Back-to-back wins for the Bucs and they sit just 6 games below .500! Well that’s still not very close but there are some positive signs coming from Tampa in recent weeks at the very least. Mike Glennon has taken control of this passing game and Bobby Rainey was the headline story in Week 11 as he lead all running backs in fantasy production. Rainey played 66% of snaps and saw 30 carries for 164 yards and 2 scores, to go along with a cheap receiving TD (that everyone who owned Brian Leonard probably screamed about). Tampa was able to establish the tempo they wanted in that game and maintain a lead behind Glennon’s ball-security and Rainey’s rushing. That might not be the case in Week 12 though, as they face a Lions team that can score points in bunches, especially at home. Detroit pushes the tempo, running nearly 70 plays per game and as a result, only 1 running back has seen over 20 carries in a game against them all season (Lacy in Week 5). Tampa is also 9 point road underdogs, so the 30 carries from Week 11 might be a one time pipe-dream. Rainey wasn’t used much in the passing game, outside of his receiving touchdown, and Brian Leonard could emerge as the snap count leader in Week 12 if Tampa is playing from behind.
For the passing game, it seems like another good week to roll Glennon. The Lions have allowed 200+ passing yards in every game this season, multiple passing TDs in each of their past 5 games, and 300+ pass yards in 5 of 10 games. His job is made a lot easier when he can throw at Vincent Jackson repeatedly as well. VJax has 100+ yards receiving in 3 of Glennon’s 7 starts and will draw a Detroit secondary that just allowed Antonio Brown to tally 147 yards and 2 scores. In fact, Detroit’s defense has allowed a 100+ yard receiver in six of their last 7 games, including allowing both Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery to go over the 100 yard mark 2 weekends ago. One last note here, Tim Wright has completely fallen off the radar and has been targeted just 3 total times in the last 2 weeks.
Detroit Lions
A tough loss in Pittsburgh put the Lions in the middle of a tight divisional race with the Bears and potentially the Packers down the road. Last week, Reggie Bush fumbled early and was essentially benched for a couple of quarters before returning late in the game. He was a huge disappointment, but could bounce back against a Tampa Bay team allowing nearly 40 receiving yards per game to opposing backs. The Buccs have also allowed over 100 yards on the ground in 3 of their last 5 games. TB ranks 6th worst on PFF’s rushing ratings, so don’t shy away from Bush because of one bad week. In fact, he’s had 3 games before Week 11 this season where he posted under 11 fantasy points. The following game, he went over 20 fantasy points every time.
Through the air, we get to arguably the most interesting matchup of the entire weekend. Calvin Johnson will see a heavy dose of Darrelle Revis as the best of their respective positions (sorry Sherman) square off. They’ve only played once before, when Darrelle was in New York in 2010. Calvin was targeted only 4 times and caught one ball for 13 yards. Revis is finally starting to look like his former self in Tampa, and he’s skyrocketed in recent weeks and now stands as the top coverage corner in the NFL according to ProFootballFocus. Considering the price tag, I’m going to get it out of the way now and say that Calvin isn’t in play for daily fantasy this weekend. He’s the highest priced wideout across the board and you need him to be a Top-3 receiver to pay off that tag. I don’t see that happening.
It does however open the door for other guys to have huge games. Last week, it was Harry Douglas who torched the Buccs for over 100 yards receiving. The week before it was Rishard Matthews. This week it could be Nate Burleson who is expected to return and slide into the WR2 slot across from Johnson.
TB @ DET – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Mike Glennon – Glennon might actually come in as a cash game/single entry play who you should avoid in the major qualifiers. So far in his starts, he’s produced a ‘consistent’ score of 16 or more fantasy points in over 50% of games, but has yet to go over 20 fantasy points into the ceiling range you want for a tournament QB1.
- Brian Leonard – Here’s my contrarian thought process of the weekend. With the entire DFS world focused on Rainey, you can get Leonard at an absolute steal. He’s 4.5K on FD, 4K on DS and 3.4K on DK. There’s no way Rainey sees 30 carries again and the most likely possibility is that Tampa is playing from behind in this game which would mean the better pass-catching back, Leonard, sees more opportunities.
- Vincent Jackson – Glennon might be a H2H play, but Jackson is a GPP play. He’s been up and down all season but when he’s up, he’s dominant. He was a top-3 receiver a week ago and Detroit has been so inept against wideouts that you have to find a place for him on tournament teams if you’re pushing in multiple entries.
- Matthew Stafford – We might learn a lot about Stafford’s progression as a quarterback this weekend. If Revis is able to cloak Calvin, Stafford will need to prove he can survive without his safety net. He has Burleson back along with Bush, Durham and Pettigrew. Plus Calvin will have a size advantage in the red zone over Revis for Stafford to work with. The Falcons are 27th against opposing QBs and Stafford, who has thrown a TD in every game this season, is definitely in play in all formats.
- Reggie Bush – As I mentioned above, Bush has responded well to bad games all season long. He should be able to gash Tampa in the passing game, giving him great value on full point PPR sites. His price also dropped on every DFS site this week, including a $700 drop on FanDuel, so you can get him at a lower range than usual.
- Nate Burleson – He’s expected to play and to return to the WR2 role. It was referenced above but Tampa has allowed 100+ yards to a non-#1 wideout in back-to-back games so Burleson will need to be ready to jump right back into action. Before his injury, he had been targeted 23 times in 3 games as well. He probably presents the most value on FanDuel at 4.5K and DraftStreet at 5.8K.