NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 14 - Page 2
Buffalo at Tampa Bay
| Buffalo Bills | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Raymond James Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 2.5 | 43 | 20.25 | -2.5 | 43 | 22.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.2 | 20 | 29 | 4 | Offense | 18.1 | 30 | 30 | 22 | |
| Defense | 25.6 | 24 | 15 | 24 | Defense | 23.8 | 17 | 18 | 12 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tampa Bay | 30 | 8 | 18 | 19 | Buffalo | 15 | 11 | 31 | 5 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Johnson | 8.7 | 8.0 | 8.0 | Jackson | 121 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 5.0 | ||
| Goodwin | 30 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 4.0 | Underwood | 26 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | |
| Woods | 64 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | Owusu | 10 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | |
| Chandler | 66 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 6.0 | Wright | |||||
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo lost on yet another questionable decision by an NFL referee in Week 13. EJ Manuel played well for the Bills as he threw for 210 yards with a touchdown and ran one in as well. He’s now started three straight with a Bills receiving corps that looks a little different than the one he was working with earlier in the year, so we can get a pretty good idea of who he feels comfortable targeting. Stevie Johnson again lead all receivers with 8 targets in Week 13 and Scott Chandler was 2nd with 6. No other Bills receiving option saw more than 4 looks in a run-heavy offensive scheme. Buffalo ran on 49% of downs last weekend although that might be expected a team with some of the biggest home/road pass to run differentials in football. In home games this season, Buffalo is rushing on over 53% of their plays, but on the road that number drops down to just 38%. A 15% swing in the rushing rate is pretty significant for a Bills offense that hits the road as they head to Tampa this weekend. Assuming they do pass more, Tampa is extremely vulnerable against 2nd WR options. With Revis probable, Stevie Johnson should be locked down for the majority of this game. That leaves Woods, T.J. Graham and Goodwin. Woods played on 80% of snaps a week ago, while Graham saw 66% and Goodwin was only on the field for 36% of snaps. Woods has had some strong games with Manuel at the helm and could be the best option on Sunday.
A big day for both CJ Spiller and FJax last weekend highlighted the Bills rushing attack. Spiller racked up nearly 150 rushing yards and a touchdown, while Jackson was able to find the end zone both on the ground and through the air. Jackson had 15 touches to Spiller’s 17, and the true timeshare in Buffalo continues on. They’ll draw a Tampa front seven that has been pretty mediocre on the season. They’ve done well in terms of rush TDs allowed, giving up just one in their last 5 games. But they have been susceptible to giving up yards on the ground, and have allowed 90+ yards rushing in each of their last three. PFF has their rush defense rated as the 7th worst in the NFL so the lack of rush touchdowns allowed may be more based on luck than skill.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa returned to its losing ways on Sunday with a 27-6 defeat at the hands of Carolina. But in Week 14 they head into a matchup against the Bills as 2.5 point favorites. We’ll start in the passing game for Tampa, as they have a pretty favorable matchup against a Bills defense that ranks 31st against WRs on the year and 15th against QBs. The biggest concern for Tampa will be a strong Bills pass rush that leads the NFL over their past three games while averaging 4.7 sacks. Tampa’s pass blocking unit ranks below average on PFF, so their hands should be full while trying to stop the likes of Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus and Jerry Hughes. A strong pass rush has spelled trouble for Glennon all season so there are definitely some concerns when it comes to rostering him this week. According to ProFootballFocus, Glennon is completing just 46% of passes when under pressure compared to 74% with no pressure. Similarly, he’s completed just 53% of passes when blitzed. Look for Buffalo to go after him early and often and try to rattle the rookie. Also worth watching for Tampa is the status of Vincent Jackson on Sunday. He has missed practice each of the past two days and there are some concerns about his availability for Week 14. If he sits, Tiquan Underwood and Chris Owusu would play a ton of snaps at wideout for Tampa against a Bills secondary that allowed Roddy White to become the 8th receiver to cross 100+ yards against them.
Bobby Rainey quietly had a decent day on the ground against the Panthers in Week 13. He got 17 touches and managed 73 yards for a 4.56 YPC average. His matchup this weekend is much more favorable as the Bills have allowed 5 rush TDs over their last three games to go along with 100+ yards on the ground from each of those three opponents. In fact, Buffalo ranks 5th worst in the NFL against running backs over that 3 week span. The issue with Rainey is an expectation for him to see 30 touches like he did in Week 11 against Atlanta. It looks like the more likely scenario is that he gets 16-20 touches, but against a relatively soft rush defense that could yield 100 yards and a score if he’s able to break one or two big gains.
BUF @ TB – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- EJ Manuel – The Bills rank 30th against QBs on the year so Manuel has to be in consideration for tournaments. I like him as a QB2 on DraftStreet $10K, but also think he’s viable at $5.8K on DraftKings given the high scores needed from wideouts and backs to win tournaments over there.
- CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson – Both have good upside, but I’d lean towards Jackson in full point PPR formats and Spiller in half point PPR formats. Jackson has been more involved in the passing game than Spiller in recent weeks, but Spiller is coming off a huge week on the ground and is priced reasonably at $8K on DS and $6K on DK.
- Bobby Rainey – Rainey is really underpriced on a number of sites this week after two relatively poor performances. $65K on Feud is the best value I’ve been able to find but he may not be worth the $9.8K tag on DS and $5.9K tag on DK.
- Vincent Jackson – Jackson is a constant threat to post a huge game and if he goes on Sunday he’ll face a Bills secondary that has been torched by WR1’s in recent weeks. He’s a shade over $10K on DS which is a nice value, but his best value is on DraftKings where he’s just $6.5K. He seems pretty fairly priced on FD this weekend at $7.4K. As always, Jackson is a likely GPP option only. If he sits, Tiquan Underwood becomes a dirt cheap deep sleeper option on all sites.
Minnesota at Baltimore
| Minnesota Vikings | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | M&T Bank Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 7 | 43 | 18 | -7 | 43 | 25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.1 | 13 | 25 | 6 | Offense | 20.8 | 25 | 19 | 29 | |
| Defense | 30.5 | 32 | 30 | 23 | Defense | 19.6 | 7 | 12 | 6 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore | 11 | 4 | 15 | 15 | Minnesota | 32 | 31 | 28 | 26 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Patterson | 52 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 4.0 | Smith | 106 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 10.0 | |
| Jennings | 71 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 9.0 | Jones | 38 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 7.0 | |
| Simpson | 78 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 9.0 | Brown | 49 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | |
| Carlson | 44 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 6.0 | Clark | 52 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 2.0 | |
Minnesota Vikings
Matt Cassel will take the reigns in the Vikings offense after Christian Ponder was unable to clear concussion protocol on Thursday. Cassel came on early in Week 13 and his targets tend to differ greatly from Ponder’s. Let’s take a look at the 3 full games Cassel has played this season, including last week:
Jennings (23 TGT), Simpson (27 TGT), Patterson (8 TGT), Tight Ends 1 (19 targets)
1 – Included Rudolph’s targets for Cassel’s Week 4 and 6 targets, and Carlson’s Week 13 targets.
It’s really too bad that Cassel doesn’t look to Patterson more often, as he seemed to be carving out a nice role for himself in Ponder’s offense. Jennings and Simpson saw 7 targets combined, to Patterson’s 11, in Week 12. But last week Patterson was thrown at just 4 times compared to 9 each for Jennings/Simpson. The matchup against Baltimore doesn’t stand out, but they have allowed 19 FPPG to QBs over the last 5 weeks and have been exposed at times throughout the year.
The rushing attack for Minnesota is lead by Adrian Peterson who will undoubtedly have one of his toughest tasks of the season against this Ravens front seven. Baltimore’s rush defense ranks 3rd on PFF but they did struggle with Le’Veon Bell last weekend, specifically in the screen game where Bell was able to tally 63 receiving yards on 7 catches (to go along with 70+ rush yards). In fact, over the last 5 games Baltimore has allowed 31 receptions on 37 targets, 218 receiving yards and 2 receiving scores to opposing backs. Peterson isn’t heavily involved in the passing game, but he may have to find a way to get involved through the air to find success against Baltimore.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens come into Sunday’s tilt fresh off a big win over divisional rival Pittsburgh and in good shape to make a move in both the AFC North and AFC Wild Card. This is a game they should win at home, and as 7 point favorites, Vegas clearly agrees. Minnesota’s defense has been one of the worst in all of football this season and Baltimore’s skill position players have some of the best matchups this weekend. We’ll start with Flacco, who gets the 3rd worst defense vs. Quarterbacks over the past three weeks. The Vikings have allowed multiple passing touchdowns and 275+ yards passing in five of their last six. Flacco is trending up as well, and now has back to back 250+ yard games with a pass TD in each. A big key to the recent improvements in Baltimore’s passing game has been the return of Jacoby Jones who has 154 receiving yards and a score over his last two games (and might have had a return TD last week if someone hadn’t gotten in the way.) Both Jones and Smith are constant deep threats, and in week’s past I’ve outlined how they both see the majority of their targets 15+ yards downfield. But deciding between the two is a bit of a challenge, since both can be risky. Last week, it was Alshon Jeffery who exposed the Minnesota secondary for 250+ receiving yards. Jeffery lined up for the majority of his snaps as the receiver set wide right, which is where Jacoby Jones started last game as well according to PFF. That RWR slot could be the best place for Flacco and company to expose the Minnesota secondary.
On the ground, the Ravens really don’t have much going for them. On PFF’s rush ratings, the Ravens rank dead last in the NFL. The Vikings on the other hand rank 5th worst against the run on those ratings, so it’s going to be an interesting matchup of bad vs. bad. MIN has now allowed 3 of their last 4 opposing RB1’s to go over 100 yards, granted each of those backs saw 20+ carries. Rice has just 2 games all season where he’s been allotted 20 carries, but has managed to eclipse 20 fantasy points in each of those games. Rice might not be what he used to, but if Baltimore gets a lead at home they might get Rice some extra touches and he’s shown he is still a viable option in good matchups.
MIN @ BAL – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Adrian Peterson – AP is coming off a huge week against a soft Bears rush defense, and will have a significantly more difficult matchup on Sunday. I’m personally not going to be targeting him, but he has big play appeal and could be considered a GPP option, especially after back to back 100+ yard efforts. The best spot to take a chance on AP might be DraftStreet where his price dropped nearly $2500 and stands at just over $12.5K this week.
- John Carlson – Another GPP play, Carlson is cheap across the board and the Ravens have struggled at times this season covering the tight end position, which is similar to their issue with RB’s catching the ball out of the backfield. If AP can’t get involved in the screen game, Carlson should see some breathing room. His $4.5K tag on FD and $3.6K tag on DraftKings stand out as good values, but $4K on DraftStreet is far and away his best value this week.
- Joe Flacco – Flacco is definitely heating up and if you believe in year-to-year trends, it was around Week 12 last season where Flacco’s fantasy output started really skyrocketing. He’s in a great spot, and can be in consideration as a QB2 for cash games and QB1 for tournaments. He’s the 25th highest priced QB on DraftStreet this week at under $10K and would be a nice cash game or tournament play there.
- Ray Rice – As I mentioned above, Rice isn’t talented enough anymore to beat good defenses. But he’s still talented enough to beat bad defenses and that’s what the Vikings bring to the table. If Rice can get 20 touches, he could find the end zone and cross the 100 yard mark. At $6.4K on FD he’s a little overpriced, but he’s just $10K on DD and $9K on DS which are pretty solid values. At $5.9K on DK he’s right where he should be.
- Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones – I’m personally going to favor Jones in this matchup because I see it as a similar situation to what Jeffery/Marshall brought to the Vikings defense last week. Smith and Jones aren’t quite as talented as those two but both are strong deep threats and Smith should draw the bulk of the attention which could leave Jacoby with some great opportunities down the field.
Miami at Pittsburgh
| Miami Dolphins | Pittsburgh Steelers | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Heinz Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 3 | 40.5 | 18.75 | -3 | 40.5 | 21.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.0 | 24 | 17 | 25 | Offense | 21.9 | 22 | 8 | 31 | |
| Defense | 20.7 | 9 | 9 | 25 | Defense | 23.2 | 14 | 11 | 18 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Pittsburgh | 9 | 18 | 13 | 8 | Miami | 5 | 25 | 2 | 28 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Wallace | 105 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 9.0 | Brown | 123 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 8.0 | |
| Hartline | 104 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 15.0 | Sanders | 94 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 11.0 | |
| Matthews | 44 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.0 | Wheaton | 12 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.0 | |
| Clay | 78 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | Miller | 64 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 9.0 | |
Miami Dolphins
Miami took care of business vs. the Jets last weekend by shutting down a pretty miserable offense and is still in the thick of the AFC Wild Card hunt. Tannehill and the passing game were stellar, as the 2nd year quarterback threw for over 300 yards and two scores while both Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline had 20+ fantasy point efforts. The matchup to watch for from that side of the ball will be Mike Wallace against Ike Taylor for PIT. Taylor is currently the 110th worst coverage corner in the NFL, out of 112 qualifiers on ProFootballFocus. Taylor has been in charge of covering, for the majority of plays, a number of top tier wideouts this season and has been repeatedly torched. 4 of the last 5 receivers he’s been in coverage against have posted 20+ fantasy point games. Wallace is heating up as well so the time to target him might be right now. He has a score in each of his last two games, to go along with 18 targets and 209 receiving yards. The other play to consider is Brian Hartline who has become a PPR monster in recent weeks. He’s been targeted 13, 5 and 15 times over the last three games for 270 yards and a score. Wallace has the better matchup, but Hartline is likely to have a better value across the industry this weekend so both are worth looking into. One last note on the Dolphins passing game; their offensive line struggles are no big secret but they did look better last week against a strong front seven in NYJ and the Steelers pass rush has been mediocre all season.
The ground game for the Dolphins officially belongs to Lamar Miller and while I was personally scared off of him against NYJ last weekend, it seems like a good time to hop aboard and target him against this Steelers defense which has been boom or bust. Miller took 80% of snaps last week and with no Daniel Thomas, he’s a safe bet to continue to see 80% snap counts for the remainder of the season. Maybe more important than the snap counts were the 22 carries he saw while protecting the lead for the Dolphins. Miami is a slight underdog in this one, so he may not see quite as many carries but he’s still involved in the passing game and could find added value there if the Dolphins are trailing late.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh can’t be pleased with their loss to Baltimore on Thanksgiving last week and will now need some help to get into the playoffs. At the very least, the NFL didn’t suspend head coach Mike Tomlin for one of the most blatantly disrespectful moves I’ve ever seen pulled by a coach on the Jones kick return. Anyways, we’ll start by looking at the Steelers passing game which is lead by Roethlisberger who’s riding a three game multiple TD streak. One of the biggest reasons for his recent success has been reincorporating Heath Miller into the offense. Miller has been targeted 25 times over the past three games and has caught 23 of those for 192 yards. He hasn’t found the end zone but fell a few inches short last week and could break through this weekend against a MIA defense that ranks 5th worst in the NFL vs. tight ends over their last three games. The other thing to watch for in this one will be the passing game vs. a healthy Dolphins secondary. The cog in that secondary is Dimitri Patterson who’s missed back-to-back games. He’s the 16th best coverage corner on PFF and quarterbacks are averaging just 10.5 FPPG in the five games Patterson has played this season. If he’s able to go, it could hamper Antonio Brown on the outside a bit.
Le’Veon Bell was perhaps the Steelers best offensive player in the Week 13 loss to Baltimore. He totaled 130 yards both on the ground and in the receiving game and is quietly one of the better PPR backs in the NFL. He has 4 or more receptions with 50 receiving yards in 3 of his last five games and is 8th in the NFL in terms of RB targets per game. Miami’s defense is allowing the 9th most receiving yards to opposing backs this year so Bell may be able to do some serious damage in the screen game. Bell’s listed as probable for this game after getting knocked out cold last weekend, so just make sure to double check that he’s in the lineup.
MIA @ PIT – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Ryan Tannehill – Tanny now has 19 and 22.4 FP in his last two games and the Steelers have been middle of the pack all year long in terms of FP-allowed to quarterbacks. He’s a GPP option only, but I do like the pairing with Wallace or Hartline in tournaments. His price jumped on nearly every site this week, but it actually dropped $800 on DraftStreet where he’s now sitting under $10K.
- Lamar Miller – It’s a boom or bust play in a boom or bust matchup, so like all of the Dolphins, he’s probably best left for tournament play only. But he’s, on average, the 27th highest priced starting running back this weekend across the industry and there aren’t many players in that price range who have the talent that Miller boasts.
- Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline – Hartline is a bit cheaper than Wallace on every site, but lacks the upside that Wallace does. Hartline may be an option on full-point PPR sites for cash games this week, since he seems to be a lock for 5 catches and 80 yards right now. Wallace on the other hand, is a GPP special and has terrific value at $9K on DS and $5.8K on DK as well as $87K on Feud (the only site he’s cheaper than Hartline).
- Le’Veon Bell – Love the matchup for Bell this weekend and really like his upside on full point PPR sites. Most people will be targeting Shane Vereen and Gio Bernard for PPR value but Bell has been just a step below them in terms of catching the ball out of the backfield. His best value is at $12.4K on DD and $6.4K on DK, and both sites reward a full point per reception.
- Emmanuel Sanders – The Dolphins rank 23rd in the NFL vs. WR2’s so I think Sanders could be the best bet in the Steelers passing game. At $5.8K on DS and $4.8K on DK, he’s a bargain.
- Heath Miller – Mentioned it above, but Miller has been increasingly involved in the Steelers passing game and draws a Miami defense that’s in the bottom 10 vs. tight ends on the season. He’s $4900 on FD and $8K on FTD, both of which stand out as strong values.