NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 14 - Page 3

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-12-07 03:18:03

Oakland at NY Jets

Oakland Raiders						New York Jets
Sun – 1:00PM ET						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	40.5	19				-2.5	40.5	21.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.8	26	28	5		Offense	15.8	31	32	10
Defense	25.0	21	24	10		Defense	25.8	25	25	1
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
NY Jets	21	1	26	23		Oakland	23	19	27	14
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Moore	74	7.4	6.0			Hill	59	4.9	4.0	4.0
Streater	66	5.5	7.0	4.0		Holmes	36	5.1	4.0	0.0
Holmes	22	3.7	6.3	11.0		Nelson	41	5.1	5.3	8.0
Rivera	40	3.3	3.7	3.0		Cumberland	31	2.8	3.0	3.0

Oakland Raiders

This game could easily be the ugliest of the weekend as the Raiders head to the MetLife to take on the lifeless Jets. The Raiders will rely heavily on Rashad Jennings again (check his status though, as of Friday even he hadn’t been cleared to play) as Darren McFadden is listed as unlikely to play on Sunday. Jennings has one of the toughest matchups of the week, facing a Jets front seven that is easily one of the NFL’s best, despite a substandard showing against Miami a week ago. ProFootballFocus still has the Jets rush defense as the best in football, and 2nd place isn’t really all that close. The 72 yards allowed to Lamar Miller last week were the most the Jets have allowed any rusher to have in 2013 and marked just the 3rd time that any RB managed more than 60 yards. As much as I love the upside of Jennings, it’s just not the place to use him.

The passing game however may be able to find success here, as Matt McGloin has actually looked decent in his first few starts. His best game came with the fewest passing yards in Houston as he threw for 196 with three scores. Last week was the first game he’s started and not thrown a TD pass. This Jets secondary is extremely vulnerable and is coming off a miserable performance where the Dolphins had a QB throw for 300+ yards and multiple receivers have 90 yards receiving or more with a TD. Oakland will likely be without Denarius Moore again this week which creates an interesting dynamic for the Raiders passing game. In the 2 weeks with McGloin starting and Moore out, here’s how the targets have been broken down:

Streater (14 TGT), Holmes (16 TGT), Ford (6 TGT), Rivera (5 TGT), Jennings (6 TGT)

Last week was huge for Andre Holmes as he surpassed 100 yards receiving on Turkey day and saw a whopping 11 targets from McGloin. His average depth of target, according to PFF, is 18.6 yards which is relatively similar to the type of threat Mike Wallace represented in last week’s game. Streater is more along the lines of a Brian Hartline or possession receiver. Now both are obviously JV versions of the Dolphins wideouts but both could still have big games against this secondary.

New York Jets

There are a lot of issues with Geno Smith right now, and there’s absolutely no excuse that can account for his cumulative QB Rating of 40.7 over the last three weeks (yes, that’s an average of about 13.5 QBR per game). But the one glimmer of hope this week comes with a matchup against the Raiders who are 8th worst in the NFL against QBs over the last 5 weeks, and with the return of Jeremy Kerley. Kerley isn’t Megatron or Gordon or any of the top wideouts in the league, but Geno did play well with Kerley on the field. He’s thrown for no more than 127 passing yards in the four games Kerley has missed (including Week 9 where he was injured after just 13 offensive snaps). In fact, with Santonio Holmes expected to play it will be the first time since Week 4 where Geno has both Holmes and Kerley as receiving weapons. Here’s his game log for 2013, including whether or not Holmes/Kerley were on the field:

Basically, in the three games both Kerley and Holmes have played, Geno’s averaging 19 FPPG. He’s also averaging 16 FPPG in games where at least Kerley has played this season. I won’t sit here and make an argument that he should be a guy that jumps off the page for you, but against the Raiders defense that has allowed a passing touchdown in each of their last 6 games to go along with 300+ pass yards in 4 of those 6 games, you could do worse than Smith.

OAK @ NYJ – Daily Fantasy Relevant

• Matt McGloin – He’s dirt cheap nearly everywhere and at $6K on FD, $8.8K on DS and $5.5K on DK you can save at the QB position in a GPP and target some of the high priced running backs and receivers. It’s a huge risk, but the reward possibility is there.

• Andre Holmes – If you’re going to target someone in the Raiders offense you might as well go with a guy who has some upside. Holmes showed he was that guy by grabbing 7 balls for 134 yards in Week 13. He has great value at $5K on SS, $3.6K on DK and $7.4K on FTD

• Geno Smith – You knew this was coming after the writeup above. I can’t guarantee I’ll even put him on a roster but you have to consider him against a bad Oakland secondary. He is either the cheapest or 2nd cheapest quarterback on every single DFS site this week except SS. At $7K on DraftStreet you have a guy with proven 20 fantasy point upside.

• Santonio Holmes – Much like targeting the Raiders, if you’re going to use Jets players you might as well look for big upside. Holmes has that kind of upside for a near min-price on most sites.

Kansas City at Washington

Kansas City Chiefs						Washington Redskins
Sun – 1:00PM ET						FedExField
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	44.5	23.75				3	44.5	20.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.8	9	24	11		Offense	22.4	19	16	1
Defense	17.8	4	21	21		Defense	30.2	31	27	14
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Washington	27	27	23	29		Kansas City	18	16	20	2
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Bowe	86	7.0	9.0	7.0		Garcon	133	11.0	11.0	12.0
Avery	63	5.2	4.7	6.0		Morgan
McCluster	67	5.8	8.0	6.0		Robinson	19	1.6	2.7	2.0
Fasano	30	3.8	4.7	5.0		Reed	59	6.6	1.0

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have now dropped three straight games and their once prolific defense is falling apart. We’ll discuss that more when we focus on the Redskins, but for the Chiefs offense it’s actually been drastically better than when they were winning. Alex Smith has multiple touchdowns and 230+ passing yards in each of those three games and Anthony Fasano has a three game touchdown streak in tact as well. Fasano will miss this weekend’s game though and Sean McGrath will play the majority of snaps at tight end. They’ll head to Washington to face a defense that ranks at or near the bottom of nearly every defensive stat. Their defense is allowing the 6th most FPPG to opposing quarterbacks over the last three weeks and in that span, every WR1 they’ve faced has 80 or more receiving yards. Their total pass coverage rating on PFF is 2nd worst in the NFL so Smith and company should be able to move the ball efficiently in this game.

The run game is likely to become the focal point of this offense again though, as the Chiefs are favored slightly and should be nurturing a lead late in the game again. The key word there is ‘should’, as they haven’t looked great over the last three weeks and even with how bad Washington has been, the talent is still there for them to play well, especially at home. Jamaal Charles has over 100 net yards with a score in each of his last two games and will again be one of the premiere options in this weekend’s games. The Skins red zone defense has been one of the worst in the league and they’ve allowed the opposing RB1 to score 2 touchdowns in three of their last four contests. That Redskins front seven could also be even worse on Sunday, as London Fletcher is listed as questionable for this game. Be sure to keep an eye on that injury news and if Fletcher isn’t able to lace up, then Charles should see an even bigger spike in fantasy relevancy.

Washington Redskins

The Redskins season continues to fall apart and they’ve now lost four consecutive games dating back to the Thursday night football loss vs. the Vikings. During that losing streak, RG3 has actually been a valuable fantasy option. As is often the case with Quarterbacks, losing games leads to throwing the ball a lot more and higher fantasy output. RG3 is no different and has 3 20+ fantasy point performances in those 4 losses. He’ll have a golden opportunity against a Chiefs defense that has now allowed 103 points over their last three games. This defense has been exposed and they’re free falling right now. They should see Tamba Hali on the field which is a boost but Justin Houston seems unlikely right now and he’s a valuable piece of their front seven. In coverage last week, Manning picked on Marcus Cooper who was covering Decker on the majority of snaps. PFF shows that Cooper had Decker in coverage on 8 targets. Decker reeled in 5 of those for 79 yards and 2 of his 4 touchdowns. He was also burnt my Demaryius Thomas for 91 yards on 2 receptions in just 3 targets. Brandon Flowers wasn’t much better in coverage, and the only two times he was thrown at while covering Decker he allowed Decker to find the end zone. The typical layout for the Chiefs secondary has Cooper covering the LWR, Sean Smith taking the RWR and Flowers covering the slot receiver. Pierre Garcon has started each of the last two games on the left side of the offense and Shanahan should place him there again to ensure a slightly better matchup against Cooper. If that’s the case, Garcon could have a field day.

KC @ WAS – Daily Fantasy Relevant

• Alex Smith – It’s hard to deny how relevant he’s been fantasy-wise anymore. With the Chiefs defense struggling, Smith has been forced to throw more. His price has risen with it though and the only site I’d roster him on is FanDuel (tournaments only) at $7700.

• Jamaal Charles – You pay top dollar for Charles but he’s been superb all season long and he’s as safe as it gets for H2H or cash games. He’s scored under 15 FP just 3 times all year and under 10 FP just once.

• Robert Griffin III – I’m really buying into the idea that the Chiefs secondary has been exposed. They’ve faced good competition but even before the DEN/SD/DEN stretch, they were getting thrown on a lot by bad quarterbacks. Griffin has been playing well and is worth consideration in any format. I also love his $13.5K tag on DraftDay as well as the $8K price point on DraftKings.

• Pierre Garcon – Outlined the matchup above and think the RG3/Garcon pairing could be a terrific tournament play this weekend. I love his $10K price point on DS and like the added upside with the full-point PPR on Draftkings at $7.1K. I’d avoid on SS though, unless pairing with Griffin, as there are a number of guys in his price range that seem more appealing.

Atlanta at Green Bay

Atlanta Falcons						Green Bay Packers
Sun – 1:00PM ET						Lambeau Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	47.5	20.25				-7	47.5	27.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.8	23	5	29		Offense	24.5	11	7	8
Defense	28.3	29	20	30		Defense	25.4	23	22	26
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Green Bay	22	21	22	20		Atlanta	24	29	21	18
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
White	52	5.1	8.3	14.0		Nelson	92	7.8	6.7	4.0
Douglas	101	8.3	11.7	15.0		Jones	62	6.2	7.7	5.0
Davis	13	1.0	0.3	0.0		Boykin	56	4.8	7.0	3.0
Gonzalez	91	7.8	7.3	7.0		Quarless	30	2.5	2.7	2.0

Atlanta Falcons

This is one of my favorite games to target this weekend as the Falcons head to Green Bay. With a 47.5 over/under and the Falcons as 7 point dogs (although that line may change with news that Rodgers is out), it looks like Matty Ice will be playing catch up against a horrid Green Bay Secondary. Ryan threw for 311 yards last weekend and finally hooked up with Roddy White for a huge game. White looked really impressive, and appeared to have close to full mobility. Green Bay’s defense ranks 8th worst on PFF’s coverage ratings so there should be ample opportunities for Ryan to connect with both White and Harry Douglas who again played well for the Falcons. You would think that White’s return would have knocked off Douglas’ production, but over the last four games, Douglas had 28 receptions. He’s been a tremendous possession receiver, with his average depth of target coming in around 8.8 yards. But the biggest struggle for Green Bay over the past few weeks has been against the deep ball. Victor Cruz, Riley Cooper and Calvin Johnson have all torched them downfield and while Ryan doesn’t tend to go downfield too often, Roddy is the more likely candidate to play outside the numbers.

The ground game has also been improved and Steven Jackson got 22 carries last weekend and managed 84 yards with two scores. He’ll have a juicy matchup on Sunday as Green Bay has now allowed the 2nd most FPPG to opposing running backs over the last three weeks. In fact, in the last two weeks, GB has allowed the opposing RB1 to rush for 100+ yards while the RB2 was able to get at least 90 yards of his own. That’s absurd. They have absolutely no ability to stop the run right now and Jackson should see a decent workload again for Atlanta.

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay’s season is essentially over, but the glimmer of hope is still there so they’ll do everything in their power to take down the Falcons this weekend and tread water waiting for Rodgers to get healthy. We’ll start on the ground, where Green Bay will have to control the tempo to keep the Falcons off the field and the ball out of the hands of Flynn. Eddie Lacy has a tremendous matchup this weekend against the Falcons who have been obliterated by the run in recent weeks. The Packers defense was 2nd worst in terms of FPPG-allowed to RBs over the last 3, and the Falcons defense is dead last in that category. They’ve now allowed 100+ yards rushing in every game dating back to Week 7. CJ Spiller became the 4th back to have 140+ rushing yards against them over their last 6 games as well. Lacy has to get more than the 10 touches he saw on Thanksgiving and he makes for an intriguing play as most people will jump off the bandwagon following that performance.

The passing game for Green Bay will rely on Matt Flynn to carry them and boy was that ugly in Week 13. National TV and Flynn shriveled up and died. Adding onto the targets from Week 12, where he played just the 2nd half and OT, here’s who Flynn has looked at most through about 1 and a half games.

T-1. Jones (11 targets)
T-1. Boykin (11 targets)
3. Lacy (10 targets)
4. Nelson (9 targets)

That isn’t pretty and I’d be shocked to see it improve all too much, even against one of the worst secondaries in football. The fact remains that Flynn just isn’t a great quarterback and has no ability to throw the ball downfield which is ruining a great receiver in Jordy Nelson.

ATL @ GB – Daily Fantasy Relevant

• Matt Ryan – Ryan is near the top of my list in terms of tournament plays this weekend. With White looking better and Douglas playing well, Ryan has 3 legitimate options to throw to with Tony G at TE. He’s, on average, dead in the middle of QB pricing and can save you cap space most notably at $7700 on FD and $6900 on DK. I also love him as one of your 2 QBs at $11.2K on SS.

• Steven Jackson – The 20+ carries was really promising last week and he has another good matchup on Sunday. He’s under $9K on DS and just $9.6K on DD, so those two stand out as some of the better values available. He’s a bit overpriced on DK thought at $6.2K

• Roddy White and Harry Douglas – This might sound crazy but I’d consider the trio of Ryan/White/Douglas in a GPP this weekend. Just look at how inexpensive the three Falcons are combined, and consider that they put up 60 combined FP (DK Scoring) last weekend:

• FanDuel – $20600/$60000
• DraftStreet – $29,421/$100,000
• DraftKings – $18700/$50000
• DraftDay – $35550/$100,000
• FantasyFeud – $296,500/$1,000,000
• StarStreet – $31,700/$100,000
• FanThrowDown – $32,900/$100,000

• Eddie Lacy – Lacy stands out to me as a Top-3 running back this weekend, especially after last week’s dud dropped his price on every site except DK. $7,000 on FanDuel looks like the best place to target him, but he’s not overpriced on any site and is a good GPP or H2H play.

• James Jones – It’s just not worth risking targeting Nelson or Boykin at this point with Flynn at the helm. Jones is the go to possession WR so he does have value on full point PPR sites against a weak Atlanta secondary.

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