NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 15 - Page 2
Buffalo at Jacksonville
Buffalo Bills | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
Sun – 1:00PM ET | EverBank Field | |||||||||
Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
-2 | 43 | 22.5 | 2 | 43 | 20.5 | |||||
Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
Offense | 21.0 | 25 | 28 | 5 | Offense | 15.5 | 32 | 25 | 32 | |
Defense | 25.7 | 21 | 6 | 26 | Defense | 28.6 | 30 | 26 | 27 | |
Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
Jacksonville | 30 | 21 | 20 | 31 | Buffalo | 11 | 10 | 30 | 5 | |
Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
Johnson | 8.9 | 9.5 | 11.0 | Shorts | 125 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 6.0 | ||
Goodwin | 30 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | Brown | 39 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 7.0 | |
Woods | 69 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 5.0 | Sanders | 63 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 6.0 | |
Chandler | 69 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | Lewis | 28 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 |
Buffalo Bills
The Bills offense looked absolutely awful in Week 14 and they totaled just 214 net yards. 184 came from Manuel and the passing game, but he showed many signs of being a rookie as he was picked off on 4 different occasions by the Tampa defense. After last weekend, the Bills passing game fell to dead last in offensive pass ratings on PFF. They dropped behind this weekend’s opponent, Jacksonville, who is equally bad in defending the pass as they are in throwing it themselves. They’ve allowed the 5th most FPPG to opposing QBs over their last 5 games and have now allowed 3 straight QBs (or pair of QBs in the Keenum/Schaub case) throw for 300+ yards. They’ve allowed multiple touchdown passes in three of their last four efforts and their opponent’s have had a 100+ yard receiver in three of their last four as well. That bodes well for the only viable receiving option that Buffalo has in Stevie Johnson. Johnson saw 11 targets in Week 14 and seems to be the only guy that Manuel trusts enough to target consistently. Josh Gordon and Andre Johnson, admittedly in two better situations than Johnson, totaled 400+ yards and 3 TDs against the Jags over the last two weeks and if Buffalo’s smart they’ll throw at LCB Dwayne Gratz as often as possible. Last week Gratz was thrown at 12 times and allowed 7 receptions for 72 yards.
The ground game has a slightly deceiving matchup against Jacksonville. The Jags are in the bottom quarter of defenses vs. RB’s on the year, but they are actually allowing the 2nd fewest FPPG to opposing backs over the past five weeks. It’s no secret that JAX is playing much better, and a big part of that has come with their ability to slow the run. It’s also worth noting though, that in those 5 weeks they haven’t exactly faced the toughest offenses on the ground. They slowed Houston twice, but also got to take on the Cardinals, Browns and Titans. The fact that no RB has gone over 75 yards is nice, but has to come with perspective. The Bills will throw a mixture of Spiller and Jackson at the Jags and the workload seems to be shifting in Spiller’s favor as he gets healthier. For the 2nd straight week, Spiller saw more touches than Jackson and while he did absolutely nothing with them in Week 14, his big play ability still makes him a noteworthy option. It’s also worth noting that Jackson saw 7 targets as the Bills fell behind in Week 14, which dwarfs the 1 target seen by Spiller. Seeing as the Bills are favored in this one, it’s more likely that Spiller gets a few added touches than Jackson would in the event the Bills are chasing.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Things are goooood in Jacksonville. After their third consecutive win, the Jags fans must be a little confused how they come into this contest as 2 point home underdogs against a horrible Bills team. Jacksonville has ridden back to back multi-TD games from Chad Henne for the first time all season in their passing game. Henne hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards in either, but he’s a game manager not a game changer. The JAX receivers have a terrific matchup against Buffalo on Sunday, as the Bills rank 3rd worst in terms of FPPG allowed to WRs. On the outside, Cecil Shorts should see mostly Stephon Gilmore as he lines up to the left of Henne on the majority of snaps and Gilmore is the RCB on most plays for Buffalo. Leodis McKelvin is the LCB for Buffalo and should see a lot of Ace Sanders on the opposite side of the field. Both McKelvin and Gilmore have been extremely hit or miss this season and Gilmore had his first strong game in coverage, according to PFF, last weekend for the first time in his last 6 games. He was thrown at 5 times and allowed just 1 catch for 10 yards. It’s tough to put too much into last weekend’s game though, seeing as the Bills offense just handed the ball to Tampa’s defense repeatedly so the overall flow of the game was a nightmare. In the last 5 games, Gilmore has been thrown at over 10 times in 3 different contests. He’s allowed 72, 93 and 95 receiving yards in those three games. He’s far from tremendous in coverage and Shorts should be able to exploit him much like Antonio Brown did in Week 10.
The rushing attack for JAX will likely be without MJD this weekend and with Justin Forsett hitting the IR last weekend, it leaves Jordan Todman as the man for the job. The UCONN grad has been getting more touches in the last three weeks, but has just 76 rush yards on 23 carries. He found the end zone for the third time last week on a 21 yard reception. He will face a Bills rush defense that was just ravaged for 127 yards by Bobby Rainey and has now allowed a rushing TD in each of their last four games to go along with 100+ total rush yards in all of those games. In fact, Buffalo is 5th worst in terms of FPPG allowed to RB’s over the last 5 weeks and 2nd worst over the last 3 weeks. Todman has a terrific matchup and could flourish in an offense that has ran the ball on 44% of their plays over the last three weeks.
BUF @ JAX – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson – Spiller remains a cheap upside play on most sites and is just $5.9K on FD and all 7’s on DS at $7777. Jackson might be a better play on the PPR sites like DK, DD and SS.
- Stevie Johnson – He’s another GPP option only but could be a great tournament play at $4.9K on FanDuel or $5.1K on DraftKings.
- Jordan Todman – I really like Todman in large field tournaments this weekend for some salary relief to your lineup. The matchup is terrific and if he’s the sole back for Jacksonville he could easily get 18-20 touches and a couple of receptions. He’s $5.8K on DS, $4.6K on FD and $3.8K on DK. He might be a touch overpriced at $9K on SS, but still has moderate value there.
- Cecil Shorts – Shorts is tough because his upside is limited but he should be a lock for 6 catches and 70-80 yards. On full point PPR sites, that might make him a solid head to head or 50/50 play that can relieve some cap space.
Washington at Atlanta
Washington Redskins | Atlanta Falcons | |||||||||
Sun – 1:00PM ET | Georgia Dome | |||||||||
Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
6 | 51 | 22.5 | -6 | 51 | 28.5 | |||||
Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
Offense | 21.5 | 23 | 17 | 2 | Offense | 21.7 | 22 | 6 | 30 | |
Defense | 31.3 | 32 | 27 | 18 | Defense | 27.8 | 29 | 20 | 30 | |
Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
Atlanta | 26 | 27 | 19 | 21 | Washington | 28 | 30 | 23 | 24 | |
Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
Garcon | 145 | 11.1 | 11.7 | 12.0 | White | 62 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 10.0 | |
Morgan | Douglas | 108 | 8.2 | 11.0 | 7.0 | |||||
Robinson | 25 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 6.0 | Davis | 14 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | |
Reed | 59 | 6.6 | Gonzalez | 97 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 6.0 |
Washington Redskins
Did you get a chance to watch Mike Shanahan’s press conference to announce Kirk Cousins as his starter? It was must-watch TV and this entire Redskins franchise is circling the drain. Their 2013 season is over and as I mentioned, Cousins is being given the keys to the castle for at least Week 15. We have to go back to Week 15 a year ago to find the last time Kirk was the starter for Washington, and he had a dandy of a game while throwing for 329 yards and 2 scores. It’s not wholly valuable but here’s who he targeted most in that game.
Garcon (12 targets), Moss (6 targets), Paulsen (5 targets)
Washington’s receivers haven’t changed much since then and it was actually the highest target total Garcon had all season. Shanny won’t be afraid to let Cousins throw the ball around and Garcon could be in a great position against an Atlanta secondary that could be without Thomas Decoud this weekend. The overall Atlanta secondary unit has been better in the last three weeks, but when they’ve struggled it’s been against deep threats like Vincent Jackson, Golden Tate and Jordy Nelson. Garcon isn’t necessarily a deep threat, and has an average depth of target on PFF of just 9.8 yards. Regardless, he is the only real receiver this offense has and should be thrown at a ton in this game.
The run game for Washington has been non-existent over the past few weeks, and Alfred Morris has 109 net rush yards in his last three games to go along with only 37 touches. With Cousins at the helm, the Skins should try to establish the run at least in the beginning of this game. Morris has about as good of a matchup as you can, and the Falcons have been a sieve against the run all season. Spiller broke them down for 150 yards two weeks back and Eddie Lacy was on his way to a monster game last week before tweaking an injury and he clearly wasn’t himself in the 2nd half. 4 opposing RB1’s have rushed for 140 or more yards in the Falcons last 7 games and while Morris has struggled, the matchup for him to bounce back with is here. Over the last 5 weeks, ATL is 2nd worst in terms of FPPG-allowed to RBs.
Atlanta Falcons
It’s hard to believe a 3-10 team could be 6 point favorites, but such is the case with the Falcons as they head into Week 15. The Atlanta offense has finally found some punch in recent weeks and Roddy White has reemerged as a legitimate threat in the passing game. Over the last two weeks, Ryan has thrown at White 24 times and has hauled in 18 of them for 218 yards. Harry Douglas has also been solid, although his 2 catches for 20 yards a week ago were certainly a disappointment. He was still targeted 7 times though and is likely to see about 8-10 more targets in Week 15. The matchup for this passing attack is solid, as the Redskins are 26th against opposing QBs and 19th against WRs. The Redskins secondary ranks dead last in pass coverage on PFF as well. Ryan, White and Douglas all have great matchups but the best matchup may go to Tony Gonzalez. The Skins are 5th worst against TE’s over the last 5 weeks and 7th worst over the last three. Last week marked the first time since Week 9 that the Redskins didn’t allow opposing TE’s over 60 yards total receiving (and that was mostly because KC’s 1st string TE was out and the game got out of hand).
Things aren’t much prettier in terms of stopping the run in Washington. Last week Jamaal Charles rushed for 150+ yards and a TD, and Knile Davis added a rushing touchdown of his own. It was the 4th time in 5 weeks that Washington allowed multiple rushing touchdowns for a rush D that ranks 2nd to last in rush stop ratings on PFF. Steven Jackson has been much improved over recent weeks, with 60+ yards on the ground in each of his last 3 games and 3 TDs in that span. Most inspiring is that he’s received at least 15 carries in each of those games as the Falcons recommit to the run.
WAS @ ATL – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Kirk Cousins – Cousins is a dirt cheap GPP option at quarterback in Week 15. At $5.1K on FD and $5.4K on DK, he has a ton of value. I wouldn’t overpay for him on DS though at $11K, there are better options in that price range.
- Alfred Morris – His price has plummeted and he’s now just $6400 on FanDuel and $5900 on DraftKings. The value on FD is a little better between the two, as I’d rather have a pass-catching back on the full point PPR sites but still his low tag and great matchup makes him intriguing on every site this week and in all formats.
- Pierre Garcon – Garcon has added value on full-point PPR sites, which makes his $6K tag on DK extra appealing for tournaments this weekend. He’s a solid pair with Cousins on most sites and the duo can be had for a relative bargain.
- Matt Ryan – Ryan has over 16 FP in 2 of his last 4 games and over 12 in each of those. His ceiling has been lowered without Julio on the outside, but given the matchup he’s worth consideration in every format. His $11.2K price tag on StarStreet is really solid as a QB2 option.
- Steven Jackson – He’s not worth paying up for but on a few sites he can be had for a bargain and should be a lock for 12-15 fantasy points. $6.3K on FanDuel is a solid value, as is under $10K on StarStreet.
- Roddy White and Harry Douglas – Roddy is the pricier, but also the option I’d prefer to handcuff to Ryan this weekend. At $9.8K on SS, he can be teamed up with Ryan for just $20K total, or 20% of your salary cap. If he continues his pace of recent weeks, he should post 15-20 FP at least in full point PPR.
New England at Miami
New England Patriots | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
Sun – 1:00PM ET | Sun Life Stadium | |||||||||
Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
-2.5 | 45.5 | 24 | 2.5 | 45.5 | 21.5 | |||||
Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
Offense | 26.8 | 5 | 8 | 13 | Offense | 22.0 | 21 | 19 | 23 | |
Defense | 22.1 | 10 | 16 | 31 | Defense | 21.2 | 9 | 13 | 22 | |
Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
Miami | 6 | 25 | 3 | 26 | New England | 19 | 19 | 13 | 27 | |
Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
Amendola | 63 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 8.0 | Wallace | 110 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 5.0 | |
Edelman | 110 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 9.0 | Hartline | 112 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 8.0 | |
Dobson | 67 | 6.5 | 0.0 | Matthews | 46 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.0 | ||
Hoomanawanui | 14 | 1.4 | Clay | 88 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 10.0 |
New England Patriots
Life without Gronk begins and that could spell disaster for this offense. The best way to look at this offense is “life with Gronk” and “life without Gronk” as he’s that much of a game changer. Of course, much of life without Gronk also was life without Vereen, so there’s at least a slight bump in the overall passing game’s performance but here’s the breakdown:
NE Offense | w/o Gronk | w/ Gronk |
---|---|---|
Points | 20.83 | 27.15 |
Pass Yards | 246.67 | 315 |
Pass TD | 1.33 | 1.85 |
Comp. % | 57.00% | 64.08% |
RZ TD% | 56% | 75% |
Brady FPPG | 14.41 | 19.12 |
Edelman Tgt | 10.17 | 7 |
Amendola Tgt | 9 | 6 |
Dobson Tgt | 7.4 | 7 |
Thompkins Tgt | 8 | 4 |
The only bright spot is the option of Vereen in the passing game, and when Gronk went down last weekend, Shane saw a heavy uptick in the passing game. He contributed all of the yards for NE on one drive that lasted just 3 plays and ended in a Vereen rush TD. He ended the day with 150+ yards receiving as well. He’s a wide receiver who you can put in a RB slot and has made himself a near must-own in full point PPR formats. It’s also worth noting that both Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins are questionable for this matchup and if both sit, Josh Boyce will see a good amount of reps and actually played a small number of snaps at TE last weekend with Gronkowski down. Matchup wise, things got a lot easier for New England when the Dolphins announced they will shut down Dimitri Patterson for the season. In the Week 8 game between these teams, Patterson picked Brady off on the first pass of the game and was a nuisance to the Patriots offense until he was forced from the game for the 3rd quarter and part of the 4th. In that time, Brady did nearly all his damage and tore the Dolphins secondary apart. Without Patterson, this secondary is nowhere near as talented.
The Patriots rushing attack has been a mystery since Stevan Ridley started having fumbleitis again. But with Gronkowski out, Ridley needs to be a reliable part of this offense and even Bill Belichick has to realize that. New England will need to establish the run and Ridley is their best back. Ridley got 14 touches for 79 yards and a score in the Week 8 matchup with Miami and this Dolphins defense has been more than vulnerable on the ground. They’re in the bottom quarter of the NFL in terms of defense vs. RB stats, so the holes will be there if Belichick decides to attack them with his most talented back.
Miami Dolphins
For the Dolphins, the back-to-back victories have breathed life into their season and a wild card spot is still within reach. Winning at home against the division rival Patriots is a near must, and that has to come with a big game from Ryan Tannehill. Tanny is riding a 5 game streak with a passing touchdown and will face a NE secondary that just allowed 391 yards and 3 scores to Jason Campbell. On the outside, Aqib Talib will likely match up with Mike Wallace and while Talib slowed him for just 3 grabs and 41 yards in Week 8, Aqib has been clearly slowed by a hamstring injury and back-to-back WR1’s have totaled 100+ yards against him. He’s shadowed both Andre Johnson and Josh Gordon and both were able to gash him at times. New England will also likely be without Alfonso Dennard on the outside, which will put Logan Ryan on Brian Hartline. Ryan has been pretty sound this year, but the Patriots on a whole have struggled against WR2’s and Hartline has been superb of late. He has 175 receiving yards and 2 scores over the last two weeks.
The rush game for Miami got a pleasant surprise when Daniel Thomas decided to play out of nowhere and ran for 100+ yards in Week 14. I’m not quite sure how that one slipped by me, but I had a fair amount of Lamar Miller in a good matchup last weekend and got burnt pretty badly there. Miller is expected to play in Week 15 despite a concussion, which means a muddled backfield for the Dolphins. It would be nice if Miller sat, so we could have a clear cut RB1 to target against a porous Patriot front seven. NE has allowed the 10th most FPPG to opposing running backs over their last three games and that includes last week against Cleveland who had just 47 yards on 22 carries. Quality running offenses can gash the Patriots and while the Dolphins have all sorts of issues on their O-line, they still have a couple of good backs with Miller and Thomas.
NE @ MIA – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Tom Brady – Not having Gronk is tough but he has decent value this weekend against Miami and has 300+ yards passing in each of his last three games. His price dropped all the way to $12.7K on DraftStreet which makes him the most talented option in that price range.
- Stevan Ridley – Chop listed him in his top 10 on DK this weekend and I can’t help but agree. At just $5K there he could be a solid value option, and he also has tremendous value at under $7K on DraftStreet. It’s a boom or bust option but I think he gets incorporated back into the offense this weekend.
- Shane Vereen – On full point PPR sites he needs to be in the majority of your lineups. He’s averaging 8 receptions per game in his 5 games this season, so you’re starting with a baseline of 8 FP right off the bat on those sites. Add in 50-60 receiving yards and you’re already at value. If he scores, he blows his value out of the water, even at $7.5K on DK or $12K on SS.
- Danny Amendola – It looks like Edelman will be shadowed by Brent Grimes and that could prove challenging, but Amendola will have the better matchup on the outside and had an impressive 8 targets in Week 14. I love the $5.5K price point on DK and the sub $8K tag on DS, but at $9.1K on SS and $8.4K on FTD he may have the best value.
- Ryan Tannehill – If Miami falls behind, Tanny can have a monster game as a number of QBs chasing down the Patriots have been able to post big stat lines (and apparently Jason Campbell while protecting a lead). He’s overpriced at $8.6K on FD but is just $11.9K on DS and $11K on FTD for solid value.
- Mike Wallace – Josh Gordon absolutely torched Aqib Talib on his 80 yard touchdown reception last weekend and Talib is a step behind right now. He’s a GPP option only but has as much upside as any receiver and is $9K on DD and $5.6K on DK, to go along with $8.9K on DS.
- Charles Clay – I didn’t mention Clay above but he may be my favorite Dolphin option this weekend. The Patriots linebackers are big and slow, as was evidenced by the Jordan Cameron performance a week ago. In fact, NE is the 2nd worst defense vs. TE’s over the last 5 weeks and Clay has 14 catches for 170 yards and 2 scores over the last two weeks.