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NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 16

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-12-22 17:42:24

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Weekly NFL Grind Down Article. There’s no better place to start your research for NFL action in the week ahead than the Grind Down. Each week, we break down every game in an effort to better prepare you when building your daily fantasy lineups.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

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WEEK 16 NOTE: BE SURE TO CHECK ALL INJURY NEWS THIS WEEK. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SITUATIONS THAT ARE CHANGING BASED ON PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS.

Minnesota at Cincinnati

Minnesota Vikings Cincinnati Bengals
Vikings Bengals
Sun – 1:00PM ET Paul Brown Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
7.5 48 20.25 -7.5 48 27.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 25.9 8 22 10 Offense 25.3 11 12 19
Defense 30.4 31 30 20 Defense 19.6 6 7 5
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Cincinnati 7 7 10 6 Minnesota 31 27 31 30
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Jennings 94 7.2 10.7 13.0 Green 157 11.1 11.0 18.0
Patterson 66 4.6 5.7 6.0 Jones 66 4.8 5.3 9.0
Simpson 90 6.3 6.7 3.0 Sanu 70 4.9 3.3 4.0
Carlson 48 3.7 5.0 Gresham 64 4.8 3.7 5.0

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota will look to bounce back from a tough loss to the Eagles in Week 15, despite strong play in their passing game from Matt Cassel and company. Cassel again targeted Greg Jennings more than any other receiver, throwing at him 13 more times and connecting for 11 receptions, 163 yards and a TD. Jennings and Cassel have been a match made in heaven, and in games where Cassel plays the majority of reps his numbers are astounding. In five games with Cassel this season, here are Jennings stats:

The duo combined with Cordarrelle Patterson is an even bigger challenge for opposing defenses, but they have a tough matchup with the Bengals on Sunday. Just one week after being thrown on for 356 yards and 4 scores by Andrew Luck, the Bengals secondary held Pittsburgh to 191 passing yards and 1 TD. PIT was playing with a lead in the majority of that game though, something that is unlikely in Week 15 with the Bengals being 7.5 point favorites at home and playing for their postseason lives. Looking further at the passing game matchup, the Bengals are middle of the pack over the last 3 weeks vs. both QBs and RBs, and slightly above average in their last five weeks splits. Jennings will likely see a heavy dose of Adam Pacman Jones on the outside, and the Pacman received his first positive pass coverage grade on PFF in the last 4 weeks in Week 15. In Weeks 13 and 14, Jones was thrown at 16 times and allowed 11 receptions for 161 yards and 2 TDs. He’s beatable, and the Bengals are badly banged up in the secondary but the best bet for all of the Vikings receiving options should come in garbage time while playing catch up.

On the ground, Coach Leslie Frazier indicated that he thinks Adrian Peterson will be back in time for the Week 16 game against Cincy. Minnesota could really use a premiere running back, and despite the big fantasy numbers for Matt Asiata, he was terribly inefficient in Week 15. He rushed the ball a whopping 30 times and managed only 51 yards. It’s great that he found the end zone 3 times, but expecting that from him on a week-to-week basis is unrealistic. Whoever starts will need to try and find success in the screen game, as that might be the weakest part of the Bengals defense right now. 5 straight RB1’s have had 5 or more receptions against the Bengals for 214 receiving yards in that span.

Cincinnati Bengals

At this part in the season, targeting teams that are desperate for wins is a huge key to daily fantasy success. The Bengals are at a 9 out of 10 right now on the desperation meter and the loss last week dropped them to 9-6 with the Ravens closing quickly, yet the door for a bye week in the opening round is still open. Being 7.5 home favorites against a non-playoff team means the Bengals need to be able to win this game. We’ll start in the passing game, where Andy Dalton inability to throw the long ball consistently continues to plague A.J. Green. Both Dalton and Green have elite level matchups this week as the Vikings rank dead last in the NFL in terms of fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks over the last 3 and 5 weeks. Last weekend, the Vikings allowed their fourth consecutive opposing WR1 to have at least 80 yards receiving and 1 TD. Their secondary is extremely banged up and Green can have a field day if Dalton is able to find him consistently. Dalton’s noodle arm has been the reason that Green hasn’t gone over 20 fantasy points since Week 10, but if there were ever a time to break out it would be in Week 16. There are a couple of other storylines in the Bengals passing game though, as Marvin Jones returned to being a primary target in Week 15. He was thrown at 9 times and hauled in 5 balls for 48 yards and a score. The other storyline is the injury to Jermaine Gresham. Gresham left the game in the third quarter of Week 15 and Tyler Eifert stepped in and reeled in a TD and has huge upside if Gresham is unable to suit up on Sunday.

On the ground, the matchup is equally as enticing and both Giovani Bernard and BJGE should be able to find space against the Vikes front seven. I give the edge to Bernard for a few reasons here, but mostly due to the fact that Minnesota is allowing the 4th most receiving yards to opposing running backs. The interior defense for MIN is arguably the best part of a porous defense, but on the edge and in their linebacking corps they are badly banged up. Gio should be able to play a huge role in the screen game and provide big PPR value. As we saw last week, LeSean McCoy was able to stay relevant despite only managing 38 rushing yards on 8 attempts. Also worth considering is that despite the #27 ranking vs. running backs on the season, the Vikings defense has been a top-16 team in terms of fantasy points allowed to RBs over both the last 5 and 3 week splits.

MIN @ CIN – Daily Fantasy Relevant

1) FanDuel: Salary Cap = $60,000 – Dalton ($8,400), Green ($8,600), Total ($17,000)
2) DraftKings: Salary Cap = $50,000 – Dalton ($7,400), Green ($7500), Total ($14,900)
3) FanThrowDown: Salary Cap = $100,000 – Dalton ($11,800), Green ($12,500), Total ($24,300)

Miami at Buffalo

Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills
Dolphins Bills
Sun – 1:00PM ET Ralph Wilson Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
-2.5 43 22.75 2.5 43 20.25
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 22.1 21 17 24 Offense 21.4 24 29 4
Defense 21.1 9 16 22 Defense 25.3 18 6 26
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Buffalo 12 13 29 12 Miami 6 22 7 23
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Wallace 119 8.2 7.7 9.0 Johnson 8.4 7.3 3.0
Hartline 120 8.2 10.3 8.0 Goodwin 30 3.0 1.3 0.0
Matthews 55 4.1 4.7 9.0 Woods 75 6.2 4.7 6.0
Clay 90 6.0 7.3 2.0 Chandler 74 5.3 4.7 5.0

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are winners of 3 straight games and have allowed themselves an outside shot at winning the AFC East and are in a strong position to make the playoffs. They need to be able to win at Buffalo though, but at the very least you can guarantee that this team won’t be resting anyone this weekend. It was another good weekend for Ryan Tannehill in Week 15, as he threw for 323 yards and 3 scores to go along with 0 INT. He targeted Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline and Rishard Matthews 8 or 9 times each and really did a good job of spreading the ball around with Charles Clay being put in the Bill Belichick dog house. Earlier in the year, Tannehill was able to throw for 3 scores and 2 INT against this Bills secondary, including 2 TD passes to the now injured Brandon Gibson and the other to Clay. The Bills defense can be tough to predict, and after surrendering 10 catches and 143 yards to Roddy White alone in Week 13 they’ve allowed a total of just 14 catches for 162 yards combined over their last two games. In the earlier matchup this year, Leodis McKelvin locked down Mike Wallace and held him to just 12 receiving yards on 6 targets with McKelvin in coverage. When Wallace was covered by anyone else, he had 3 receptions on 4 targets for 64 yards. McKelvin now has a positive game rating on PFF in 5 of his last 6 games and should take Wallace pretty much out of the equation in this one. The best weapon for Tannehill in this one should be Charles Clay, since the Bills rank 4th worst vs. Tight Ends over the last 5 weeks and have allowed a receiving touchdown to each of the last 4 tight ends they’ve faced. They haven’t been facing the cream of the crop either, getting scored on by Jeff Cumberland, Tony Gonzalez, Tim Wright and Marcedes Lewis. The last note here is the struggling Dolphins offensive line going up against one of the better pass rush units in football. The Bills rank 10th in pass rushing on PFF and lead the NFL in sacks for both the season and over the last three games. In the earlier matchup this year, Tannehill was hurried 11 times, hit 5 times and brought down twice.

The rushing game for Miami should be able to find space as the Bills defense allows the 9th most FPPG to opposing backs over their last 3 games and 10th most over their last 5. In those last 3 weeks, 2 opposing RBs have totaled over 100 rushing yards and they’ve allowed 3 TD’s to RB1s. PFF has their rush defense rated as the third best in the NFL, but struggles vs. the likes of Jordan Todman and Bobby Rainey could create an opening for the Miami running game. Last weekend, Lamar Miller returned to taking the bulk of snaps and was on the field for 59% of downs compared to just 32% for Thomas. Thomas found the end zone on a two yard pass, but Miller was handed the ball 15 times for just over 4 YPC.

Buffalo Bills

For Buffalo, they’ll have chances to throw the ball on a defense that has now allowed 300+ yards passing and 2+ TDs to each of the last two QBs they’ve faced. EJ Manuel is expected to be out in this one, leaving QB duties to Thaddeus Lewis once again. He may be without his best target, as Stevie Johnson could sit with personal issues. In that event, look for Robert Woods and Scott Chandler to step up as the primary targets for Manuel. Woods snagged 5 balls for 82 yards and a score and Chandler caught 5 for 54 yards in Week 15. Beyond that, consider the target breakdown for Thaddeus in his starts this year:

The Dolphins are certainly vulnerable against wideouts as well, with two Patriot receivers crossing the 100+ receiving yard mark in Week 15 and all three of Pittsburgh’s wide receivers catching a touchdown in Week 14. There could be openings but with Johnson and Manuel out it’s unclear who will be shouldering the workload in the passing game.

On the ground, I’ll try and keep it short and simple. CJ Spiller broke out in Week 13, then followed it with a dud in Week 14 where he was a holding penalty shy of picking up another 80 yards and a score. In Week 15 he touched the ball just 13 times to Jackson’s 17 and managed 67 yards rushing. The stats aren’t fully there, but he’s increasingly healthy and the biggest factor slowing him down is Marrone’s inability to switch the workload over to CJ. The Dolphins are good against running backs, having held opposing RBs to the 4th fewest FPPG over the last 5 weeks. It’s not an ideal matchup, but Spiller has the ability to torch anyone and has shown that by torching the Chiefs and Panthers rush defenses for over 100 yards each this season.

MIA @ BUF – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Indianapolis at Kansas City

Indianapolis Colts Kansas City Chiefs
Colts Chiefs
Sun – 1:00PM ET Arrowhead Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
6.5 44 18.75 -6.5 44 25.25
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 24.1 16 18 21 Offense 28.5 3 23 11
Defense 22.8 12 14 27 Defense 18.2 4 20 18
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Kansas City 17 15 18 1 Indianapolis 14 11 21 7
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Hilton 116 8.1 8.0 12.0 Bowe 95 6.6 5.3 4.0
Rogers 15 5.0 5.0 6.0 Avery 68 4.8 3.7 3.0
Brazill 25 3.1 6.0 McCluster 72 5.7 5.5
Fleener 81 5.6 5.0 1.0 Fasano 30 3.8 5.0

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts go to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs who have flipped their gameplan on its head and gone from being a defensive stalwart to a run and gun type squad. After allowing 300+ passing yards in Week 15, the Chiefs secondary has now been torched for that amount or more in 4 of their last 5 games. When it’s Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers doing the torching, it’s a little more acceptable but last weekend it was Matt McGloin who did the damage. It should be a busy week for Andrew Luck and company, as they will have ample opportunities to take advantage of this defense. The good news for KC is that Brandon Flowers had his first positively rated week in over two months on PFF. The bad news is that Sean Smith and Marcus Cooper were both subpar and Oakland was able to find a matchup advantage with TE Mychal Rivera against the KC linebackers. This week, it looks like Sean Smith, Brandon Flowers and Marcus Cooper will all cover Hilton at different points, based on scheme. More likely though is that Smith sees a heavy dose of Hilton on the outside. T.Y. finally returned to being an important part of this offense in Week 15 and was targeted 12 times for 8 grabs and 78 yards. Over the last 4 weeks the Chiefs have allowed 4 receiving touchdowns of 25 yards or more and Hilton is the type of deep threat that could find success over the top. The biggest concern here is that Eric Berry will shadow Hilton’s side of the field, and in that event it’s likely that slot receiver Griff Whalen, coming off a 4 catch, 45 yard game with a score, would have ample room to work with as well as TE Coby Fleener. Check on the status of LaVon Brazill though, as he would take a number of snaps from the slot if he’s healthy enough to play.

The run game might be back for Indy, and Trent Richardson is finally fantasy relevant again. He ran 19 times for 64 yards in Week 15 and also hauled in 4 receptions for 38 yards and a score. Over the last two weeks, T-Rich has 100+ yards receiving with a TD on 9 receptions and his commitment to working on third downs has opened up the window for him to be the RB1 once again (as seen by his 19 carries in Week 15). The Chiefs are tough up front, but did allow Rashad Jennings to rush for 91 yards and 2 scores in Wk15 and Montee Ball to go for 107 in Week 13. Overall, the Chiefs are 8th worst in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to running backs over their last five weeks and it seems as if their secondary isn’t the only part of their defense floundering.

Kansas City Chiefs

As referenced above, the Chiefs have flipped their playing style on it’s head in recent weeks and are scoring at will and allowing points in the same fashion. Their points for and against splits between Weeks 1-11 (Wk11 being their first loss to Denver), and after that game are remarkable:

Last weekend they tallied 56 against the Raiders on the back of Jamaal Charles who set all kinds of records and posted one of the highest fantasy totals of all time by scoring 5 touchdowns. Maybe most impressive is that he ran the ball just 8 times for 20 yards and 1 of his 5 TDs. He caught 8 passes for 195 yards and 4 touchdowns in that game and faces an Indy defense allowing the 12th most FPPG to opposing RBs over the last three weeks. The biggest concern for the Chiefs would be the need to use Charles, as this game has minor playoff implications and they’ve shown over the last two weeks that they are willing to pull him and play Knile Davis in heavy doses with a lead. This game should be close and I wouldn’t expect KC to just roll over and let the Colts have it, but it is definitely something to monitor in the news as the week goes on.

Through the air, Alex Smith again had a big day, throwing 5 touchdowns and accounting for 287 yards passing. But we can’t really sugarcoat the fact that if not for Charles breaking long TDs on screen passes, Smith’s day may not have been so stellar. Charles accounted for 195 of those 287 passing yards and 4 of the 5 passing touchdowns. The only other PaTD went to Sean McGrath and that’s worth noting since KC tight ends have now pulled down a receiving touchdown in 4 of the Chiefs last 5 games. Also worth noting is that Dwayne Bowe had his worst game in a number of weeks as he reeled in just 3 catches for 24 yards. The Colts are vulnerable in their secondary, especially against WR2’s though and that could open up some gaps for Donnie Avery although the Chiefs don’t really have any clear cut 2nd receiving option.

IND @ KC – Daily Fantasy Relevant

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About the Author

Ethan
Ethan Haskell (Ethan)