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NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 17

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-12-29 00:48:14

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Weekly NFL Grind Down Article. There’s no better place to start your research for NFL action in the week ahead than the Grind Down. Each week, we break down every game in an effort to better prepare you when building your daily fantasy lineups.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

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Carolina at Atlanta

Carolina Panthers Atlanta Falcons
Panthers Falcons
Sun – 1:00PM ET Georgia Dome
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
-6 45.5 25.75 6 45.5 19.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 23.0 19 28 11 Offense 22.2 21 6 32
Defense 14.7 1 7 2 Defense 28.1 29 25 31
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Atlanta 28 25 24 18 Carolina 2 4 3 20
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Smith 109 7.3 5.0 2.0 White 84 6.4 10.7 15.0
Lafell 83 5.3 3.3 2.0 Douglas 124 8.2 7.7 9.0
Ginn Jr. 4.2 3.3 4.0 Davis 17 1.1 1.3 3.0
Olsen 101 6.9 9.0 7.0 Gonzalez 115 7.8 8.0 11.0

Carolina Panthers

First things first, I’ll try and break down game relevance as we approach these Week 17 matchups. For the Panthers, their big home win over NO last weekend put them in position to guarantee the 2 seed in the NFC and clinch the NFC South with a WIN on Sunday (or a Saints loss, but the Saints don’t play until 4). This will be all systems go for the Panthers against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in Atlanta. Carolina is 6 point road favorites with a moderate O/U of 45, but there are a lot of defensive issues for the Falcons that could lead to some big games from Panthers players. We’ll start on the ground, since Carolina runs on the 4th highest percentage of downs for the season. DeAngelo Williams has been the featured back for 2 consecutive weeks and is thriving in that role with Stewart out. Stewart hasn’t practiced this week so we can assume he won’t go again in Week 17, but if he does then avoid this entire situation as the timeshare eliminates all value for these backs. In the last two weeks, Williams has received 27 carries for 148 rush yards and a rush TD to go with 4 catches for 87 yards and a receiving TD. As is usually the case with DeAngelo, most of his value comes with his ability to break one big play. In Week 15, it was a 72 yard receiving TD that Williams broke to provide him with 13+ fantasy points in just one play. In Week 16, Williams broke a 43 yard scoring run to give him 10+ of his 13.2 FP for the game. Those big play lanes should be open against the Falcons, who have allowed over 100 total rushing yards to opposing RBs in 9 of their last 10 games. In fact, since Week 7 the Falcons are allowing an average of 5.07 Yards Per Carry and 1405 total rushing yards to RBs on 277 rushes.

Through the air, the matchup looks pretty solid for Cam Newton as well and the Falcons rank 26th over the last 5 weeks in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs and 25th over the last 3 weeks. Atlanta also sent DL Corey Peters to IR this week along with defensive back Zeke Motta, and that’s on top of potentially missing Sean Witherspoon at LB this week as he’s yet to practice and missed the Week 15 Monday night game vs. SF. Where Cam may be able to do the bulk of his damage is on the run though, as Colin Kaepernick demonstrated in Week 15 that the Falcons have some serious holes against rushing QBs. Kaep took off just 6 times in the game, but managed 51 rushing yards and a score. In the earlier matchup this season, Newton rushed for 22 yards and a TD while throwing for 249 and another score. The one thing to note in the passing game for Carolina is that Steve Smith exited Week 16’s game early on and will miss this contest as well. That leaves a big opening for Ted Ginn Jr. to fill, and he reeled in 2 balls for 66 yards after Smith went down in that game. Greg Olsen should also see an uptick in targets this weekend with Smith sidelined.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have nothing left to play for, but that didn’t stop them from giving San Francisco a run for their money on Monday night football last week. Matt Ryan looked extremely impressive while throwing for 348 yards, 2 scores and 2 INTs against the league’s 2nd best secondary in terms of coverage ratings on PFF. Roddy White again posted his 2nd huge stat line in his last 4 games by hauling in 12 balls for 141 yards and a score. Even Tony Gonzalez sipped from the fountain of youth in his last MNF game of his career, catching 8 balls for 63 yards and a score. The trio should have a decent matchup this weekend, as the Panthers have allowed 4 of the last 6 QBs they’ve faced to throw for over 280 yards. Over the last three weeks, CAR actually is the 23rd ranked defense in terms of FP-allowed to opposing QBs and even though 2 of those games came against Drew Brees, they still have had struggles dating back to big games allowed to Tom Brady and Ryan Tannehill in the last couple of months. This secondary locked Matty Ice down in the earlier matchup this year, picking him three times while allowing just 219 yards passing and a score, but they’re trending downwards a bit and Ryan could find some holes to exploit with White on the outside and Gonzalez over the middle. Gonzalez could be especially tempting, considering the last three game logs for TE1’s vs. the Panthers:

An argument could be made that facing Jimmy Graham twice skews those numbers but the struggles vs. Cumberland mixed in, paired with the 6 rec, 81 yards and 1 TD line that Gonzalez posted on them in the matchup earlier this year give you good reason to like Tony G in his last career game.

On the ground, Steven Jackson found the end zone for the 6th time in his last 5 games against SF in Week 15. He managed just 53 yards rushing, but that’s not surprising seeing as he hasn’t gone above 85 rushing yards in any of those last 5 games. He doesn’t net a ton of yards, but he has a nose for the end zone that has driven his value up in daily fantasy. Carolina’s rush defense ranks in the middle of the pack on PFF, but they did allow Mark Ingram to power through them for 83 yards on just 13 carries a week ago, as well as allowing Chris Ivory to average 6 yards per carry on 11 rushes in Week 14. Bottom line being, power running backs can have success between the tackles against the Panthers. Jackson fits that mold and could have a decent game on the ground for the Falcons.

CAR @ ATL – Daily Fantasy Relevant

NY Jets at Miami

New York Jets Miami Dolphins
Jets Dolphins
Sun – 1:00PM ET Sun Life Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
5.5 41 17.75 -5.5 41 23.25
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 18.0 30 30 6 Offense 20.7 24 20 26
Defense 25.3 21 23 3 Defense 21.0 8 17 25
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Miami 6 23 5 23 NY Jets 19 2 25 25
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Kerley 64 5.8 7.0 11.0 Wallace 130 8.4 8.3 11.0
Holmes 55 5.5 6.3 6.0 Hartline 129 8.3 8.7 10.0
Nelson 54 4.9 4.3 5.0 Matthews 57 4.0 4.3 2.0
Cumberland 38 2.7 2.3 3.0 Clay 97 6.1 6.3 7.0

New York Jets

Rex Ryan might be coaching for his job and while the Jets are out of the playoff hunt, there are enough young pieces there that they will certainly be coming out hungry as they try and eliminate a divisional foe from a chance at the playoffs on Sunday. At the helm of their offense is Geno Smith who has really turned it around in the last 3 weeks, totaling 6 touchdowns to go with 500 passing yards and 142 rushing yards. He’s had over 40 rushing yards in each of the last three games as well and his last dud effort came against these Dolphins in Week 13, where Geno was pulled. Since that game, the Dolphins have trended downward, getting torched by Ben Roethlisberger for 349 and 3 scores, then Tom Brady for 364 and 2 scores. Thaddeus Lewis didn’t have as much success, throwing just 25 times for 193 yards but the Bills were in control of that game throughout which meant Thad could play it relatively safe. After that Week 13 win over the Jets, the Dolphins put Dimitri Patterson on IR and the secondary has gone downhill since. Patterson was a cog defensively, and without him their pass coverage is far from the same. Geno should be able to find some spots to throw, and run, against an MIA team allowing the 12th most FPPG to opposing QBs over the last 3 weeks.

The rushing attack for the Jets is baffling, because everytime you want to get excited about Chris Ivory, Rex will make the switch and start using backup RB Bilal Powell more. Last weekend, NYJ ran it down Cleveland’s throats with the lead and Ivory got 20 touches for 100+ rushing yards. It looks like Ivory will be most heavily used when protecting a lead, but that doesn’t necessarily clarify the situation since the Jets have won some of the most improbable matchups they’ve had this season while dropping a number of cupcake games where they were favored. They’re underdogs again this weekend, so Vegas would say stay away from Ivory. If you do want to roll the dice, it’s worth noting that Miami just let Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller combine for 188 rushing yards on 39 carries with a rush TD in Week 16.

Miami Dolphins

This is a must-win game for the Dolphins who get to host a non-playoff contender in their final tilt of the regular season. The Dolphins have to win and catch a couple of breaks to keep their season alive, but the key word there is that they have to win. This team has been up and down all season and after an embarrassing Week 16 loss to Buffalo, there are some concerns again about the offensive line and the offense in general. My response to that would be to not overreact. Winning road games in your own division is one of the hardest things to do in football, and the Dolphins were coming off an emotional win against the Patriots. They should be locked back in to earning a Week 17 victory and that will need to come on the shoulders of Ryan Tannehill. Those shoulders threw for 322 and 2 scores with an INT against the Jets a few weeks back, and before last week’s nightmare he was averaging 22.6 FPPG over his prior 4 games. The Jets meanwhile have improved a bit since Tannehill got to them in Week 13, but there are no real structural changes to their secondary that would indicate that they’re a better unit than the one that faced the Dolphins in that game in NY. Instead, it’s been three consecutive solid performances from rookie Dee Millner. He’s graded out with a positive rating in each of his last 3 games and has filled in well at the LCB slot across from Cromartie. Millner will likely move around a bit this week as Cromartie shadows Mike Wallace, which is great news for Wallace since Millner has been the significantly better corner over the past few weeks. Millner will see a heavy dose of Brian Hartline, which should downgrade his matchup in this one.

The focus for Miami will continue to be the passing game, so targeting the Dolphins running backs remains a losing proposition. Outside of a big game here and there in 2013, Miami’s running backs have offered minimal fantasy value and now have to face the #1 ranked rush defense in the NFL on ProFootballFocus. Save yourself some research time and don’t overthink that running situation in an offense that ran the ball just 5 times in the second half of Week 16 and has passed on 66.3% of downs over the last 3 weeks.

NYJ @ MIA – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals
Ravens Bengals
Sun – 1:00PM ET Paul Brown Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
6 44.5 19.25 -6 44.5 25.25
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 20.2 26 19 28 Offense 26.4 7 10 21
Defense 21.2 9 11 9 Defense 19.2 6 6 6
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Cincinnati 7 3 12 4 Baltimore 8 7 15 8
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Smith 131 8.7 8.3 8.0 Green 170 11.2 12.7 12.0
Jones 58 5.4 6.7 4.0 Jones 73 4.9 6.7 7.0
Brown 73 5.6 8.0 7.0 Sanu 76 5.0 4.7 6.0
Clark 52 4.3 Gresham 66 4.7 4.3 3.0

Baltimore Ravens

Yet another team in a must-win situation, the Ravens have to win a divisional road battle to have a chance at making the playoffs and defending their SuperBowl. They’ll face a banged up Bengals defense that might use this opportunity to rest a couple of players, seeing as their chances of earning a first round bye with a win and Patriots loss at home vs. BUF seem slim. I don’t think the Bengals will rest a lot of their guys, but a few guys like Carlos Dunlap and Vontaze Burfict might see a reduced snap count as they recover from recent concussions. Regardless, the Bengals have lost a ton of players on the defensive side of the ball yet have continued to play well in all defensive facets. Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Cassel had a combined 315 passing yards and 2 TDs vs. Cincy over the last two games, while Le’veon Bell and Adrian Peterson combined for 102 rushing yards and 1 score in that span. In fact, only Lamar Miller and Johnathan Franklin have broken the 100 rushing yard plateau against this front seven on the season, which is a very bad sign for Ray Rice who couldn’t even get anything going against the Patriots last weekend. Rice had just 1 more touch than backup RB Bernard Pierce, which is a troubling sign considering all the concerns about Rice’s age and explosiveness of late. This isn’t a great matchup for him and his only big outputs of the season have come against teams who rank in the bottom 10 for defense vs. running back splits.

The passing game will need Joe Flacco to get used to his knee brace pretty quickly to get to this Bengals secondary. Last week I had the pleasure of listening to Phil Simms drag on about Flacco and his knee brace, but no injury or brace should change the mental aspect of the game and Flacco consistently was making bad decisions with the football. He did have 2 passing touchdowns in an earlier win vs. Cincy this season, but threw for just 140 yards and had 2 INTs as well.

Cincinnati Bengals

It’s unclear how much the Bengals will put forth in this game, although there are enough seeding implications that you would expect that Dalton, Green and Bernard should still be on the field for the majority. Dalton is coming off a monster game where he threw for 366 yards and 4 touchdowns, with Green reeling in 7 balls for 97 yards and 2 scores of his own. They were Green’s 9th and 10th receiving touchdowns of the season, and that includes his ridiculous 8 catch, 151 yards and 1 TD performance in Baltimore earlier this season. That game was a thriller where Dalton hooked up with Green on a last second hail mary that happened to land in Green’s hands after bouncing around a couple of Ravens defenders. Even without that, Green had right around 100 yards receiving and the Ravens secondary has had some holes all season. They’ve allowed a passing touchdown in each of their last four games, and 6 total pass TDs in that span. They’ve really struggled slowing down their opponent’s #1 receiving option. Take a look at some of the recent game logs for WR’s vs. BAL since Green’s big game in Week 10:

Green wasn’t the first to have a big stat line against the Ravens and he won’t be the last. It’s also worth noting that Jermaine Gresham could see increased targets this week with Tyler Eifert not having practiced yet and there not being enough importance in Week 17 to force him to play before he’s ready. Baltimore has been stout against the TE position, but Eifert has 60 targets on the season compared to 68 for Gresham and if Eifert can’t suit up, you’d expect that a few of those 4 targets per game on average that go to Eifert will head towards Gresham.

The rushing attack has shifted back towards a focus on the power game with BJGE in recent weeks, and in three of Cincy’s last four games the number of carries has either favored the Law Firm or been within 1 or 2 either way. The Ravens once strong rush defense has shown some major holes since Thanksgiving when Le’Veon Bell exposed them for 136 total yards and a score:

Two of those three backs are backup quality running backs and only the stat line to Bush could be attributed to facing a quality opponent. They also allowed a receiving touchdown to Shane Vereen in his brief stint on the field in Week 16, so they’ve really struggled in all phases of stopping opponents out of the backfield.

BAL @ CIN – Daily Fantasy Relevant

NFL Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

About the Author

Ethan
Ethan Haskell (Ethan)