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NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 17 - Page 2

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-12-28 18:25:54

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Buffalo at New England

Buffalo Bills New England Patriots
Bills Patriots
Sun – 4:30PM ET Gillette Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
9 47 19 -9 47 28
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 21.3 23 29 2 Offense 27.3 5 7 12
Defense 23.6 15 5 23 Defense 21.2 9 18 29
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
New England 22 18 10 22 Buffalo 9 10 27 9
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Johnson 8.4 7.0 Edelman 140 9.3 13.0 11.0
Goodwin 31 2.8 0.3 1.0 Dobson 71 6.3 4.0 4.0
Woods 80 6.1 5.3 5.0 Amendola 80 7.3 8.3 3.0
Chandler 77 5.1 3.7 3.0 Hoomanawanui 18 1.5 2.0 1.0

Buffalo Bills

The Bills travel to Foxboro in a game pitting two teams that absolutely smoked their opponents last weekend. The two defenses allowed a combined 7 points in Week 15, which is somewhat surprising considering we’re talking about the Bills and Patriots. For Buffalo’s offense, the passing game is a murky situation where it’s extremely unclear whether Thad Lewis or E.J. Manuel will draw the start on Sunday. It’s safe to say that fantasy-wise, DFS players would rather see Manuel who has some upside than Lewis who is an extremely safe but boring player. The one player in this passing game worth discussing though is Robert Woods. Woods caught 3 balls for 70 yards against the Dolphins last weekend, bringing his last 2 weeks total to 5 catches for 151 yards and 1 TD. He’s been targeted 6 and 5 times in those games, with both Manuel and Lewis playing 1 each. With Stevie Johnson missing practice for a personal matter, and Marquise Goodwin highly questionable in a meaningless game for the Bills, then look for Woods to be the main target for whichever QB takes the field on Sunday. With that said, pay attention to Johnson’s status over the course of the week. He’s not injured, so he may be ready to suit up and play as soon as he’s back with the team and he has fared well against the Patriots in his career. Over the last 3 years, Johnson has faced the Pats 5 times and has 3 receiving touchdowns to go with 282 receiving yards. The Pats will also potentially be without Devin McCourty in their secondary, which would be a big blow as McCourty has really emerged as a trustworthy safety in this New England defensive scheme. With McCourty out in Week 15, the Ravens had multiple chances to torch the Patriots over the top and Flacco underthrew a number of his receivers. The Bills like to run the ball and throw deep, so Steve Gregory (who, sidenote, is the most frustrating player to have on a team you root for), could be hung out to dry if McCourty has to sit.

The rushing game is the real focus for the Bills and they’re coming off a game where FJax tallied 100+ yards and a touchdown with Spiller also gathering 77 yards of his own. Spiller continues to be more active in passing down situations, which you figure to be a need for Buffalo as they’re 9 point road underdogs in New England on Sunday. If the Bills are forced to play a lot of catchup, look for Spiller to see a ton of playing time as he tries to end a disappointing season with an exclamation point. The Patriots run defense has held back-to-back-to-back running backs under 70 yards on the ground, which is great after they allowed 326 yards to Ben Tate and Knowshon Moreno in the span of two weeks. But in their last two games, both Lamar Miller and Ray Rice averaged right around 4 yards per carry and the personnel in New England’s front seven still isn’t strong enough to consistently stop the run. Jackson and Spiller could take advantage on a Bills offense that runs the ball on 55.5% of downs over their last three.

New England Patriots

The NFL schedulers moved this game to the 4 PM slot so the Patriots and Broncos would be on an even playing field when approaching their Week 17 contests. The Pats have plenty to play for, as a win and a Broncos loss would catapult them into the #1 overall seed in the AFC. They also need to pick up a win to keep their first round bye, but that should be clear after the 1 PM game between the Ravens/Bengals wraps up. Regardless, don’t expect Brady and company to come off the field early and Belichick has proven in years past that he’s not a huge fan of the ‘pack-it-in for the playoffs’ approach. The big question mark for New England is Shane Vereen who exited last week’s contest but has been practicing all week. Vereen started his 2013 campaign off with a bang when he ran for 100+ yards and hauled in 7 catches for 58 more yards against these Bills in Week 1. He then sat out the next 8 games before returning and catching fire once again. He struggled against Miami in Week 15, but was on his way to a nice bounce back game in Week 16 when he found the end zone before leaving early on with a hamstring injury. The running game will also rely heavily on Stevan Ridley, who gets to face a Buffalo team that is allowing the 17th most FPPG to opposing RBs over the last 5 weeks. They don’t stand out as a particularly bad rush defense, but Ridley is a talented back who had one thing going for him in Week 16 that really stood out to me. In the fourth quarter when the game was relatively close, Belichick fed him the ball to run down the clock. The faith in Ridley and his fumble issues is slowly coming back and don’t be surprised if the Patriots hand him the ball 15+ times in Week 17.

Through the passing game, Brady wasn’t all too impressive in Week 16, although the pace of that game didn’t dictate any need for him to post a huge stat line. Since the injury to Rob Gronkowski two weeks back, it has been all about Julian Edelman. Edelman has 30 targets for 20 catches, 216 yards and a receiving touchdown in that span. Edelman will lineup across from RCB Stephon Gilmore for the majority of snaps, which could be a challenge seeing as Gilmore has a positive coverage rating on PFF in each of his last three games and no receiver has more than 70 yards in that span. That leaves Amendola with Leodis McKelvin, who has been a little more up and down but still generally solid in coverage this season. Brady may need to think outside the box a bit to find value in this one, and could really use Gronkowski in a game against the team allowing the 3rd most FPPG to opposing TE’s over the last 3 weeks and the 5th most over the last 5 weeks. If Vereen plays, he could find space over the middle on short routes against the weak-spot in Buffalo’s defense, the linebacking corps. If Vereen sits, Brandon Bolden will play that passing down RB role.

BUF @ NE – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Cleveland Browns Pittsburgh Steelers
Browns Steelers
Sun – 1:00PM ET Heinz Field
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
7 44 18.5 -7 44 25.5
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 20.1 27 12 27 Offense 23.9 16 11 29
Defense 25.7 22 9 16 Defense 24.2 18 8 22
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Pittsburgh 12 16 13 13 Cleveland 20 19 14 15
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Gordon 149 11.5 12.0 16.0 Brown 151 9.9 9.3 13.0
Little 95 6.3 5.0 4.0 Sanders 108 7.2 4.7 2.0
Bess 86 6.1 3.5 Wheaton 13 1.2 0.3 0.0
Cameron 110 7.9 7.5 Miller 76 6.1 4.0 4.0

Cleveland Browns

The Browns head to Pittsburgh with nothing on the line other than pride and bragging rights against a divisional foe. Cleveland would surely love to be the team to officially eliminate the big bad Steelers from playoff contention. For this breakdown, we’ll actually start with the ground game which has been revived in Cleveland thanks to Edwin Baker coming out of nowhere. He came out of nowhere in Week 15 to tally 36 yards on 6 carries with a rush TD plus 4 catches for 46 yards and then last weekend he went up against a tough Jets front 7 and managed 64 yards on 17 carries with another rushing score, adding 2 more grabs and 14 receiving yards to his resume. Baker might not yet be a household name, but he’s shown more talent than any of the backs on Cleveland’s roster and will be the featured back against a Steelers front seven that just allowed Eddie Lacy to rush for 84 yards and 2 scores against them in Week 16. Over the last three weeks, the Steelers now rank 22nd in FPPG-allowed to opposing running backs, and Baker should see the bulk of carries come Sunday. They may continue to struggle after losing Lamar Woodley before Week 15 and then Jarvis Jones to an injury last week so they’re looking at their third string outside linebacker playing serious reps.

Now onto the bread and butter of this far-from-potent Cleveland offense, the passing game. Cleveland has thrown on the 4th highest percentage of plays in the NFL over the last three weeks, so don’t be surprised to see Campbell air it out a bunch on the road Sunday, especially as they sit as 6 point underdogs. That also means fireworks from Josh Gordon, who put together one of the best receiving days in NFL history the last time these teams met. In case you forgot, here was Gordon’s final stat line that day. 17 targets, 14 receptions, 237 receiving yards, 1 RecTD. Since then, things haven’t really gotten better for Pittsburgh, as an opposing WR has torched them in each of the last 4 games:

The only good news to come out of the Week 16 game for PIT’s secondary was that Ike Taylor posted a positive coverage rating on PFF. Even with that, he still ranks 106th out of 110 qualified corners and has been horrible in one-on-one situations all year long. Gordon should be set up for another huge game come Sunday.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are somehow still in the playoff hunt so they’ll be suiting up their best and brightest to take on the Browns in Week 17. Roethlisberger is coming off back-to-back sub 200 yard passing efforts, but the Browns secondary seems ripe for the picking with Joe Haden injured and looking very questionable for this game. Haden is the only Browns corner who has a positive rating in pass coverage on PFF and his absence would likely slide Buster Skrine over to LCB and put Leon McFadden in a starting/majority of plays role at RCB. That should be screaming out “play “Antonio Brown(player-profile)”:/players/Antonio_Brown-12322” to anyone looking at daily fantasy lineups this week, especially considering that Brown has 15+ fantasy points in 4 of his last 6 games. Overall, the Browns have allowed the 4th most FPPG to QBs over the last 5 weeks and 3rd most over the last 3 weeks. They’ve also allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 10 consecutive games. In that span, QBs have totaled 25 pass TDs. Their secondary rates out in the bottom 10 in pass coverage on PFF and the entire Pittsburgh arsenal is in play in this must win game, with an added boost if Haden is unable to go. If Haden does play, he shadowed Brown in the earlier matchup this year and Brown had 5 receptions for 80 yards and a TD with Haden in coverage.

The rushing attack for Pittsburgh has been lead by Le’Veon Bell who has emerged as one of, if not the best rookie RB in a pretty good class of rookie backs. He carried the ball 24 times for 124 yards and a score in Week 16 and has 50 carries in his last two games. The matchup here is good, as the Browns rank 19th in FPPG allowed to RBs over the last 5 weeks and 27th over the last three weeks. That includes back to back 100 yard rushing efforts allowed to Matt Forte and Chris Ivory in the last two games. Bell could also find some action in the passing game, with Cleveland having allowed some monster receiving yards allowed in games past including the 12 reception, 153 yard game to Shane Vereen three weeks ago. Bell was targeted just 3 times last weekend, but had seen 5 or more targets in 5 consecutive games before that and should find himself more involved in the passing game again in the final week of 2013.

CLE @ PIT – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis Colts
Jaguars Colts
Sun – 1:00PM ET Lucas Oil Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
11.5 45.5 17 -11.5 45.5 28.5
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 15.8 32 25 30 Offense 24.1 15 18 20
Defense 27.9 27 19 30 Defense 21.7 12 12 28
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Indianapolis 13 12 20 7 Jacksonville 30 24 18 30
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Sanders 71 5.2 4.7 5.0 Hilton 123 8.0 8.0 7.0
Brown 52 5.1 6.7 6.0 Rogers 21 5.3 7.0 6.0
Ebert 8 1.3 2.0 Brazill 26 2.9 2.5 1.0
Lewis 41 4.1 5.7 6.0 Fleener 84 5.4 4.3 3.0

Jacksonville Jaguars

If you’re expecting the Jags to roll over and die, they just won’t do it as they continue to try and build on a pretty strong finish to their 2013 campaign. Sure they’ve dropped two in a row, but they’ve won 4 of their last 7 which is record setting pace for this franchise. They have some young talent that they want to have on the field, and don’t look now but Chad Henne has 2 TD passes in each of his last 4 games. Those 8 TD passes are twice as many as he had through the first 11 games of the 2013 season. A big reason for that success has been the re-emergence of Marcedes Lewis in the passing game. Lewis found the end zone for the 4th consecutive game in Week 16 and now gets to face an IND that has struggled at times in recent weeks against the TE position. Notably, they allowed a 10 catch, 91 yard and 1 TD game to Delanie Walker; a 5 catch, 41 yard and 1 TD game to Jermaine Gresham and a 6 catch 62 yard game to Ryan Griffin over the last 6 weeks. Their DvP splits are strong against the TE slot, but there have been some holes and if Lewis sees 6 or 7 more targets this week he should be able to find success against IND. Overall, since placing Cecil Shorts on IR, the Jags have had a relatively balanced target breakdown in two games:

Ace Sanders (8 tgt), Mike Brown (13 tgt), Kerry Taylor (12 tgt), Marcedes Lewis (13 tgt)

Mike Brown stands out as the guy who has replaced the highest volume of receiving in this passing game, and his 5 catch, 71 yard and 1 TD game in Week 16 was reflective of that. He’s shown he has upside, with a 5 catch, 120 yard performance earlier in the season as well. Brown fits the mold of what Cecil Shorts did in this offense a lot better as well. According to PFF, Brown has an average depth of target of 10.6 yards, which is just .5 less than Shorts’ 11.1 aDOT statistic. Ace Sanders on the other hand has an aDOT of just 6.7 yards which is 2nd shortest among qualified receivers. Henne feels comfortable throwing the mid-range pass, and has used Brown as his most qualified replacement for Cecil. Both Henne and Brown should have decent games against the Colts who rank 18th in FPPG-allowed to QBs over the last 5 weeks. Although it is worth noting that their secondary hasn’t allowed a passing touchdown in 2 weeks and has 4 INTs in that span.

Indianapolis Colts

Last week the Colts dismantled the Chiefs in Kansas City with a defense that turned KC over early and often. The offense didn’t have to do much, although when called upon they were certainly able to deliver. Starting in the passing game, Andrew Luck spread the ball around a bit, but only targeted T.Y. Hilton (7 tgts) and Griff Whalen (8 tgts) on the outside. He also threw at the RBs a lot, with Donald Brown seeing 5 looks and T-Rich getting 3 of his own. Da’Rick Rogers fell out of the gameplan and was never targeted in that game. The Colts have very little to play for in this game, so it’s pretty unclear which way they will go with their players but my guess would be that a banged up T.Y. Hilton gets a few extra plays off and they rely on working with the younger receivers like Whalen and Rogers to prep them for the playoffs. JAX ranks 22nd in FPPG-allowed to QBs over the last 5 weeks and 24th over the last three weeks, so their secondary is certainly vulnerable. They’ve also really struggled with deep threat WR’s and just let Nate Washington torch them for 6 catches, 117 yards and a TD. Hilton is that premiere deep threat that can get over the top of this secondary, but there are some concerns that he might not get enough snaps to be of value in Week 17.

The rushing attack also has a good matchup and last week the focus shifted back to Donald Brown. Sure, T-Rich might be a little upset that the Jags are preparing mostly for Brown this weekend who apparently looks much more explosive and hard to stop than Richardson on tape. But the Colts know Brown has been the better back and he’ll get the majority of snaps against a Jaguars defense that just allowed 90 yards rushing to both CJ2K and Shonn Greene in Week 16. That might mean there’s potential for both backs to have a good game here, but it definitely indicates that the Jags are soft up front and can be had on the ground. Adding injury to insult, the Jags placed Geno Hayes, Brandon Deaderick and Roy Miller (all cogs of their front 7) on IR this week and will be playing mostly backups as part of their run-stopping corps.

JAX @ IND – Daily Fantasy Relevant

NFL Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3

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Ethan
Ethan Haskell (Ethan)