NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week One - Page 3

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-05 21:06:44

Atlanta at New Orleans

Atlanta Falcons						New Orleans Saints
Sun – 1:00PM ET						Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	54	25.5				-3	54	28.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	26.2	7	6	29		Off.	28.8	3	1	25
Def.	18.7	5	23	21		Def.	28.4	31	31	32
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Ryan	19.93	22.33	32	20.55		Brees	22.79	29.99	10	14.89
Jackson	11.33	15.33	32	26.89		Sproles	13.74	16.50	23	21.44
Jones	13.89	15.73	32	34.37		Colston	13.31	15.83	5	24.18
Gonzalez	11.72	7.30	25	10.93		Graham	12.98	14.57	15	9.59

New Orleans

• This game is the game to watch this weekend. Well, it’s Week 1 so all of the games are the ones to watch, but this one especially. Drew Brees is one of the best QB’s in the league and he puts up huge numbers at home. I have Brees ranked as my top QB this week.
• I’m never a big fan of taking any of the Saints RB’s not names Darren Sproles and he only gets the nod because he is basically a WR for Brees. The Saints have too many names in the backfield and pass the ball too much for there to be a reliable fantasy RB.
• From everything that I have read, most experts think of Lance Moore as a WR3 or WR4. Being the second best receiver on a Drew Brees led team should garner a little more respect than that. I think Lance Moore has another big year and actually finishes the season with more grabs than Marques Colston. Both are good options this week.
• While Colston and Moore are good options, Jimmy Graham is a great option. He is head and shoulders above the other TE’s this week and is fully healthy.

Atlanta

• The Saints have their head coach back, but there is only so much you can do for a defense that ranked dead last against QB’s, RB’s, and WR’s last year. Love the matchup for Matt Ryan this week. I think that you should be taking at least one of the QB’s in this game and maybe both if you are playing on a multi-QB site.
• If Steven Jackson can stay healthy, I think this will be his best season in a long time. He is not going to have to carry the ball as much and will see much bigger holes than he did in St. Louis. The Saints are bad against all positions and I expect Jackson to compile a good amount of yards and hopefully find the endzone.
• Now to my favorite play of the week: Julio Jones. The Saints gave up more big plays than anyone last season and Julio made more big plays on offense than anyone not named Adrian Peterson. I think Julio should be ranked 2nd behind Calvin Johnson in the WR rankings. Roddy White is also in play, but I like the upside of Julio more.
• Tony Gonzalez is back for another year. Expect another consistent season from him, starting Week 1 against the Saints.

Seattle at Carolina

Seattle Seahawks						Carolina Panthers
Sun – 1:00PM ET						Bank of America Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	45	24				3	45	21
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	25.8	9	27	3		Off.	22.3	18	16	9
Def.	15.3	1	6	10		Def.	22.7	18	13	14
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Wilson	17.85	29.98	12	15.84		Newton	21.05	17.35	2	12.62
Lynch	16.13	19.20	27	22.33		Williams	8.56	19.67	6	16.58
Tate	8.89	7.87	8	24.68		Smith	11.16	12.50	1	21.95
Miller	4.66	5.30	24	10.68		Olsen	9.30	7.57	20	9.97

Carolina

• Remember all that talk last season about Cam Newton not being a good QB and how overrated he was? That assessment sure seems a bit rushed doesn’t it? I think Newton is going to have a great season and get back to being one of the highest scoring QB’s in the game. Don’t love the Week 1 matchup against the Seahawks though when you can take Brees, Brady, or Ryan who all have better matchups.
• Even though DeAngelo Williams is going to get the lion’s share of the carries with Stewart out, I just don’t see him being even an average fantasy RB. This is Cam’s offense and DeAngelo is going to be an afterthought.
• The Seahawks have some great corners so it’s going to be hard for these Panther’s WR’s to beat the Seahawks deep. I’m expecting a lot of short passes from Cam this week which doesn’t bode well for the WR’s.

Seattle

• Russell Wilson didn’t look great in the preseason, but I’m not concerned at all. He is still a top-10 fantasy QB with the potential to be top 5 when he has a good matchup. The Panthers weren’t great against the pass last year and were really bad against the run. He’s not being talked about all that much this week which makes him a good under the radar play.
• Marshawn Lynch is a workhorse back that is going to continue to see a ton of carries. His matchup couldn’t get much better as he takes on the Panthers who were ranked 27th against opposing RB’s. I think he is a safe bet for 80+ yards and a TD.
• With so many good receivers out there, it’s hard for me to use one of my roster spots on either Sidney Rich or Golden Tate.

Minnesota at Detroit

Minnesota Vikings						Detroit Lions
Sun – 1:00PM ET						Ford Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4.5	46.5	21				-4.5	46.5	25.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	23.7	14	31	2		Off.	23.2	17	2	23
Def.	21.8	14	24	11		Def.	27.3	27	14	16
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Ponder	12.92	16.19	21	17.72		Stafford	18.27	14.18	29	19.75
Peterson	20.46	23.10	12	19.57		Bush	11.83	15.67	7	18.18
Jennings	9.83	16.33	26	30.61		Johnson	17.59	17.60	27	31.05
Rudolph	8.24	6.03	23	10.33		Pettigrew	7.16	2.10	18	9.86

Detroit

• Matthew Stafford loves playing at home. Last year he averaged almost 80 yards more per game at home and had 4 more TD’s than he did on the road. He has a favorable matchup against the Vikings who were ranked 29th against opposing QB’s last season.
• Reggie Bush is now a Detroit Lion, hopefully he will have better luck than all of the other Lions running backs over the last couple seasons. It’s his first game though and the Vikings were good against the run last season, I don’t think he is a great option.
• There are going to be a lot of Stafford/Johnson combo’s this week and for good reason. Stafford is great at home and Megatron is great everywhere. Throw in a bad secondary and you have yourself a recipe for success. Calvin Johnson is the number 1 WR this week and will probably top that list every week.
• Brandon Pettigrew carries some value this week, but I really think the TE spot should come down to either Graham or Sudfeld.

Minnesota

• I’m not all that high on Christian Ponder and neither is anyone else. He just doesn’t put up great numbers and he often sees 1 on 1 coverage thanks to AP. I think he may have to throw the ball a few extra times this week and he may get some garbage time stats, so there are worse options.
• Adrian Peterson averaged close to 150 yards from scrimmage in his two games against the Lions last season. That number is about what I would project for him again this week. He is going to want to start the season off right and the Lions are his first victim.
• With Ponder at the helm, it really doesn’t make me excited to take any Vikings receivers. They now have Greg Jennings and I could see him catching a good number of balls on short routes. I just don’t think the big play potential is there.

Green Bay at San Francisco

Green Bay Packers						San Francisco 49ers
Sun – 4:25PM ET						Candlestick Park
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4.5	48.5	22				-4.5	48.5	26.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	27.1	5	9	20		Off.	24.8	11	23	4
Def.	21.0	11	11	17		Def.	17.1	2	4	4
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Rodgers	21.98	28.81	8	14.27		Kaepernick	13.62	20.68	13	16.06
Lacy			1	14.57		Gore	13.18	10.63	15	20.00
Cobb	12.97	13.10	9	25.38		Boldin	10.06	6.40	17	27.81
Finley	6.70	9.77	12	9.05		Davis	6.58	1.90	2	8.08

San Francisco

• Colin Kaepernick scored 40 something fantasy points against the Packers in the playoffs last year. While I don’t expect him to score that many this week, Kaep is just too good to not like the matchup. Kaep is a threat both running and throwing the football. I wouldn’t put him up with the top 5 QB’s, but he is somewhere in the 6-10 ranking for QB’s.
• Frank Gore is getting up there in age, he has hit the magical age of 30 where running backs seem to just fall off the face of the Earth. I don’t think that is going to happen to Gore, but it is worth taking note of. He’s a decent middle-tier option Week 1.
• Anquan Boldin value took a big jump when Crabtree went down with his injury. The 49ers now have Marlon Moore listed as the number two WR. I think Boldin and Vernon Davis will get the majority of the targets this week and are both good options.

Green Bay

• This 49ers defense really confused Aaron Rodgers last season. And not only once, but twice. Can they make it three times in a row? Rodgers is priced up there with Brady and Brees and there is no reason to take him this week.
• Eddie Lacy was named the starter today, but he draws a tough first matchup against the Niners who were ranked number 1 against opposing RB’s last season. However, if Lacy is minimum salary, he could make a decent play.
• There usually aren’t many offensive players that you want to take against the 49ers, but I’m really excited to see what the Packers have up their sleeve when it comes to Randall Cobb. He was already a great player last year and should get even more touches with Jennings gone. I think we could see Cobb grabbing 6-8 catches and scoring a TD this week. He’s the only Packers player I’m really considering.

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