NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week Three - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-22 14:43:01

Green Bay at Cincinnati

Green Bay Packers						Cincinnati Bengals
Sun – 1:00PM ET						Paul Brown Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-1	48	24.5				1	48	23.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	33.0	2	2	16		Off.	20.5	18	13	17
Def.	27.0	24	30	17		Def.	17.0	8	14	7
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Rodgers	30.26	30.26	14	15.96		Dalton	16.84	16.84	29	27.29
Starks	13.05	13.05	5	12.30		Green-Ellis	8.95	8.95	14	16.50
Cobb	22.10	22.10	16	30.35		Green	19.90	19.90	29	43.00
Finley	14.80	14.80	12	8.40		Gresham	7.80	7.80	31	20.10

Cincinatti

• A quick look at the tables above and you can see that there is a lot of blue next to Andy Dalton. That’s definitely a good sign for him this week as he faces the Packers who are giving up over 27 fantasy points per game to opposing QB’s. The Packers are an explosive offense and Vegas has this as a high scoring game. I love Dalton as an under the radar play. Rating = 7
• Giovani Bernard sure has some speed. He looked great on those two TD’s last week, the problem is that I don’t think he is going to see many more touches. The Bengals like having the combo of Green-Ellis and Bernard and as long as that’s the case, it clouds both of their value. Rating = 4
• A.J. Green should be fairly high on your list each week, but this week there is only one man that is ranked ahead of him and that is one Calvin Johnson. The Packers are currently ranked 29th against opposing WR’s and Green looks like he could be in for a big day. You will see quite a few Dalton/Green combo’s in my lineups.
• Tyler Eifert and Jermaine Gresham have both managed to be productive together, but they do hurt each other’s fantasy appeal. Rating = 4

Green Bay

• Aaron Rodgers put on a clinic against the Redskins last week racking up over 400 yards and throwing 4 TD’s. Rodgers faces a much tougher defense this week, but I will take a great offense over a good defense any day of the week. Vegas expects a fairly high scoring game and I think Rodgers is in for another big game. He has too many weapons at his disposal. Rating = 8
• Eddie Lacy really hurt me last week. If he could have had the production that his backup James Starks came in and had, last week would have been a much different story. But no point in playing the what if game, we have to look forward to this week. It sounds like Lacy may be out again so if you can get James Starks for cheap, I think you can expect around 70-80 yards from scrimmage. Rating = 5
• The WR situation of the Packers is a lot like the Broncos situation. A ton of different weapons but only a certain number of balls to go around. Randall Cobb is used in many ways in this offense and I think his touches are fairly predictable, but Jordy Nelson and James Jones’ production will likely vary week to week.
• Jermichael Finley is questionable right now so monitor his status throughout the week. If he plays, I like him as a solid mid-tier TE option. Rating = 5

Houston at Baltimore

Houston Texans						Baltimore Ravens
Sun – 1:00PM ET						M&T Bank Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-1	45	23				1	45	22
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	30.5	4	9	3		Off.	20.5	18	15	23
Def.	26.0	23	3	18		Def.	27.5	25	25	8
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Schaub	23.38	23.38	30	28.15		Flacco	16.76	16.76	23	19.76
Foster	14.50	14.50	9	14.70		Rice	10.55	10.55	15	16.95
Johnson	16.10	16.10	26	39.80		Smith	11.60	11.60	14	27.80
Daniels	15.30	15.30	27	18.75		Dickson	0.90	0.90	8	6.70

Baltimore

• The Browns made the Ravens look very average last week. They just couldn’t get anything going offensively. Now the Ravens have to face the tough Texans defense. I always seem to avoid taking Joe Flacco even when he has a good matchup. Rating = 4
• Ray Rice has been ruled out for Sunday’s game. Bernard Pierce has a tough matchup against the Texans, but he should easily make value on sites where he is underpriced. Rating = 6
• Houston has a pretty good secondary that will get even better if Ed Reed makes his debut this week. Torrey Smith is always an option in GPP’s thanks to his big play ability, but I don’t like him in H2H’s and 50/50’s.
• Dallas Clark had a decent Week 1 but was very quiet last week. There are better options that are in his same price range. Rating = 3

Houston

• All the talk in the preseason was about Foster and Tate, but Matt Schaub has been the Texans best player so far. He’s averaging over 23 fantasy points per game. I’m not sure he will reach that many this week though, the Ravens looked much better against the pass last week than they did in Week 1. Rating = 5
• Kubiak can say all he wants about Arian Foster and Ben Tate being in a time split, but when the game is on the line, Foster is going to be the guy. Foster is still fairly priced across the board and I could see him having another good game this week similar to last week’s production. Rating = 6
• Andre Johnson suffered a concussion last week but says that he will be ready to go by the time Sunday rolls around. This is another situation to monitor. If he doesn’t end up playing, it will be a great opportunity for the rookie DeAndre Hopkins who has really played well early on.
• Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham have 5 TD’s between the two of them, I don’t know if anyone could have predicted that at the beginning of the season. I like Daniels more than Graham this week. Rating = 6

Cleveland at Minnesota

Cleveland Browns						Minnesota Vikings
Sun – 1:00PM ET						Mall of America Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		5.5	41	17.75				-5.5	41	23.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	8.0	31	22	29		Off.	27.0	8	20	10
Def.	18.5	12	12	4		Def.	32.5	30	25	26
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Hoyer			25	20.74		Ponder	11.76	11.76	7	13.61
McGahee			32	35.20		Peterson	20.15	20.15	7	13.80
Gordon			11	25.45		Jennings	7.85	7.85	19	32.60
Cameron	16.65	16.65	25	16.45		Rudolph	7.70	7.70	7	5.75

Minnesota

• Christian Ponder is not a good fantasy option. Not this week, not next week, not the next week. He just isn’t a QB that is going to get you 300 yards and a few TD’s. Rating = 2
• Adrian Peterson is off to a slow start in his campaign to break the rushing record. While the Browns have been good against the run, AP is a different animal. If this game stays close, I think Peterson will get 25+ carries and that’s a scary thing for an opposing defense. Rating = 8
• Greg Jennings had a much better week last week, but he still has Ponder throwing him the ball. He’s cheap all around though and could be a decent 50/50 play.
• Kyle Rudolph is very talented, but has yet to show it this year. I think you can expect a better performance out of him this week, but he still has very limited upside. Rating = 4

Cleveland

• It looks like Brandon Weeden is going to sit out this week’s game against the Vikings, so Brian Hoyer is going to get the start. That doesn’t bode well for this offense, but that boosts the Vikings defense value ten-fold. Rating = 1
• Not only will the Browns be without their QB this week, but it was just announced that the Browns have traded Trent Richardson to the Colts! You rarely see star players get traded in the NFL, especially this early in the season. We will have to wait and see who is going to be their feature back now that Richardson is gone. Rating = TBD
• Josh Gordon is off of his suspension, but he doesn’t have Weeden to throw him the ball. You can ignore Gordon, Little, and Bess.
• Jordan Cameron is the one interesting play here. I could see Hoyer leaning on him heavily. I still don’t love the matchup, but he’s still a viable GPP play. Rating = 5

NY Giants at Carolina

New York Giants						Carolina Panthers
Sun – 1:00PM ET						Bank of America Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		1.5	45.5	22				-1.5	45.5	23.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	27.0	8	1	32		Off.	15.0	28	30	6
Def.	38.5	32	19	16		Def.	18.0	10	22	22
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Manning	23.14	23.14	13	15.82		Newton	15.23	15.23	19	18.70
Wilson	-0.20	-0.20	27	24.70		Williams	9.00	9.00	25	22.95
Nicks	12.10	12.10	24	34.95		Smith	10.90	10.90	19	32.60
Myers	13.25	13.25	3	4.10		Olsen	13.00	13.00	29	19.45

Carolina

• Cam Newton has had a very slow start to the season. I was expecting a lot out of him last week and while he didn’t have a terrible game, he definitely wasn’t in the top 5 scoring for QB’s. I don’t know what it is about Cam, but I think he plays well this week. The Giants are giving up over 18 fantasy points per game to opposing QB’s and I think Cam can get to that number. Rating = 7
• DeAngelo Williams was another Panther with a disappointing week last week against the Bills. He ended up with 85 yards, but no catches and no TD’s. Hopefully he can find the endzone this week. The fact that he is getting 20+ carries is certainly promising. Rating = 6
• Steve Smith is really the only receiver on my radar for the Panthers, he is Newton’s favorite target.
• Greg Olsen had a nice week and the Giants have struggled to stop opposing TE’s so far this season. They are currently ranked 29th against TE’s. Rating = 7

NY Giants

• Eli Manning forgot which team he played for last week with his 4 interceptions. He already has 7 on the year. He has a pretty decent matchup this week against the Panthers, but Andy Dalton is around the same price and has a much better matchup. The one thing Eli has going for him is that the Panthers are really good against the run so they may end up abandoning the run game altogether this week. Rating = 6
• The RB situation hasn’t gotten any better for the Giants. Until it does, just avoid it. Rating = 1
• Hakeem Nicks is really cheap on certain sites this week. I think he makes a good H2H and 50/50 play on sites where he is under priced. As always, Victor Cruz provides the home run threat and is a good play as well.
• Brandon Myers has 13 catches over the first two weeks. Not many people are talking about him which could be a good thing. Rating = 5

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