NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week Three - Page 3

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-22 14:44:23

St. Louis at Dallas

St. Louis Rams						Dallas Cowboys
Sun – 1:00PM ET						AT&T Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4	47	21.5				-4	47	25.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	25.5	11	4	25		Off.	26.0	10	16	26
Def.	27.5	25	27	6		Def.	24.0	18	24	11
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Bradford	24.32	24.32	28	27.21		Romo	15.82	15.82	24	20.52
Richardson	11.30	11.30	8	14.05		Murray	13.20	13.20	23	20.50
Austin	13.75	13.75	27	40.65		Bryant	14.40	14.40	31	44.70
Cook	14.55	14.55	18	11.90		Witten	12.85	12.85	6	5.70

Dallas

• Tony Romo is frustrating. Not only from the perspective of his own fantasy production, but he will have a favorite WR one week and then completely ignore them the next. Romo always has the potential for big weeks though and the Rams have let QB’s score over 20 fantasy points per game against them. Rating = 6
• DeMarco Murray is doing what he always does, racking up the yards and failing to find the endzone. The Rams haven’t been very good against RB’s so far this year, but I just don’t know if Murray can score. I’m expecting around 100 yards from scrimmage. Rating = 6
• Dez Bryant really took over that first half and then in the second half Romo threw it to him even if he wasn’t open. It was definitely frustrating for Miles Austin owners. I think Dez is the way to go if you want to take a Cowboys WR this week, he has that 100 yard 2 TD type of potential.
• Jason Witten has the value of well, Jason Witten. Expect a lot of targets and a lot of catches. Rating = 7

St. Louis

• Sam Bradford has to love his new weapon Tavon Austin. Bradford is averaging a surprising 24 fantasy points per game through the first 2 weeks and the Cowboys have given up big games to opposing QB’s. Bradford makes a nice play this week. Rating = 6
• Daryl Richardson is only averaging 11 fantasy points per game thus far and the Cowboys run defense has been pretty solid. Rating = 4
• Tavon Austin is the man of the hour, he caught 2 TD’s last week and looks like he will be getting 6+ receptions per game. They like to use him in different formations and guys like that are always reliable because you know the receptions will be there.
• Jared Cook was shut down by the Falcons last week and the Rams were passing the ball the whole second half. It think his weekly production will fall somewhere in between his production from the first 2 weeks. Rating = 5

Detroit at Washington

Detroit Lions						Washington Redskins
Sun – 1:00PM ET						FedExField
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		1	49	24				-1	49	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	27.5	6	7	22		Off.	23.5	14	8	19
Def.	24.5	20	15	15		Def.	35.5	31	23	32
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Stafford	19.10	19.10	32	30.21		Griffin III	22.73	22.73	4	11.18
Bush	17.75	17.75	29	26.85		Morris	11.45	11.45	31	31.65
Johnson	16.15	16.15	30	43.65		Garcon	17.10	17.10	6	22.00
Pettigrew	2.15	2.15	23	15.45		Davis	2.00	2.00	5	4.65

Washington

• Robert Griffin III turned in another decent fantasy performance but almost all of his production has come when the Redskins were down big and had to throw the ball to make a comeback. It’s hard to tell if that hurts or helps his value this week, but the Lions have an awful secondary that RGIII should be able to exploit. Rating = 8
• Alfred Morris has been pretty quiet this year, but that’s what happens to RB’s when you get down big in both of your first two games. This week should be a much different story for Morris and I think a lot of people will sleep on him. His price tag is very affordable. Rating = 7
• Pierre Garcon had a big game last week and is really RGIII’s go to guy. I really like his chances of beating this secondary deep.
• Fred Davis and Jordan Reed are both splitting catches at the TE position. I hate timeshares. Rating = 4

Detroit

• Matthew Stafford comes into this game with as big of expectations as any other QB this week. At least, that’s how I feel about his matchup. The Redskins rank dead last against opposing QB’s through 2 weeks. Stafford is affordable and has huge upside. Rating = 9
• Reggie Bush has been ruled out. Get Joique Bell in all of your lineups as he should be in for a monster game against these Redskins. Rating = 9
• Calvin Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Calvin Johnson. After a big week last week against a tough defense, he gets to go up against this Redskins defense who has gotten torched the first two weeks. This is the week to pay for Calvin.
• Brandon Pettigrew has been quiet so far. Take a tight end that you know you can get production from. Rating = 3

Atlanta at Miami

Atlanta Falcons						Miami Dolphins
Sun – 4:05PM ET						Sun Life Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		0	44	22				0	44	22
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	24.0	13	6	26		Off.	23.5	14	14	28
Def.	23.5	16	29	9		Def.	15.0	3	20	13
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Ryan	21.66	21.66	15	16.10		Tannehill	14.52	14.52	26	24.53
Rodgers	3.60	3.60	13	15.65		Miller	8.00	8.00	19	18.20
Jones	22.40	22.40	8	24.00		Wallace	12.00	12.00	28	40.75
Gonzalez	8.20	8.20	30	19.70		Clay	13.70	13.70	20	12.00

Miami

• Ryan Tannehill had a great start to last week’s game, but then Miller and Clay both got rushing TD’s so that hurt his production a little. I think Tannehill is in play again this week against the Falcons who are giving up 24 fantasy points to opposing QB’s this season. Rating = 5
• Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas are still in a time split. You know how I feel about time splits. Of the two, Miller has the better upside, but neither makes a great play. Rating = 4
• Mike Wallace was one of my better picks last week. I expected him to have a better week and he really played well. I think he has another good week ahead of him against the Falcons.
• Charles Clay is no longer the super sleeper. His price has risen which makes him much less appealing. Rating = 4

Atlanta

• Matt Ryan may be required to throw the ball a lot more this week. Without Steven Jackson, I think the Falcons are going to be a pass first, pass second kind of team this week. I think you can bump him up a bit this week against the Dolphins. Rating = 7
• With Steven Jackson out, you could go with Jacquizz Rodgers, but I just don’t think he will get that many carries. Rating = 3
• Julio Jones had a big week last week and should see plenty more targets his way against the Dolphins. Roddy White is still banged up which really helps Julio’s value.
• Tony Gonzalez production hasn’t been great, but it will pick up as the season goes on. I like him this week. Rating = 6

Jacksonville at Seattle

Jacksonville Jaguars						Seattle Seahawks
Sun – 4:25PM ET						CenturyLink Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		19.5	40.5	10.5				-19.5	40.5	30
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	5.5	32	28	30		Off.	20.5	18	24	7
Def.	23.5	16	2	31		Def.	5.0	1	1	23
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Henne	7.99	7.99	3	10.79		Wilson	13.74	13.74	8	13.68
Jones-Drew	3.90	3.90	1	8.40		Lynch	19.60	19.60	30	27.55
Shorts	9.40	9.40	1	11.90		Tate	4.75	4.75	4	17.80
Lewis			10	7.00		Miller	4.45	4.45	2	3.25

Seattle

• The real question in this game is if the Jaguars are going to be able to keep it close enough that the Seahawks won’t have to put in their backups. And to be honest, that could very well happen early in the third quarter. When you see a spread that is close to -20, the immediate reaction is to avoid both sides of this game with the exception of the defense. Russell Wilson has an amazing matchup, but if they get up big, he likely won’t do much in the second half. Rating = 7
• The same goes for Marshawn Lynch and the rest of the Seahawks. They all look like they could be great plays, but the Jaguars are really that bad. Of all the Seahawks, my favorite play would be Lynch because even if they get up big, he will likely still get a lot of carries. Rating = 9
• The WR’s for the Seahawks have been awfully quiet in the first 2 weeks. Baldwin, Tate, and Rice are all number two WR options at best this week.
• I think Zach Miller could have a nice game and he is a guy that likely wouldn’t get taken out in a blowout. He is a nice sleeper TE. Rating = 5

Jacksonville

• Oh how bad are my Jaguars are. They managed to take a step forward by scoring their first touchdown of the year last week though, so they are trending in the right direction. In all seriousness, I can’t recommend anyone from the Jags against this tough defense. Chad Henne Rating = 1
• Maurice Jones-Drew has really hurt anyone that has taken him in the first two weeks. He is questionable this week, but that injury shouldn’t affect many fantasy decisions. I don’t think MJD or his backup Todman are in play. Rating = 1
• I could keep explaining how bad the Jaguars are going to lose, or I could just say that their WR’s and TE’s are not viable fantasy options. That sounds much better anyway. Rating = 1

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