NHL DFS Slate Summary: Tuesday, March 19th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NHL DFS Slate Summary. In this article, we’ll concentrate on the key elements of DFS success while delivering analysis on the upcoming slate of NHL games for DraftKings and FanDuel. We’ll discuss today’s NHL DFS player projections, player correlations and NHL stacking, NHL starting lineups, differentiation tactics using NHL projected ownership, and recommendations on ways to create lineup diversity if entering multiple lineups using LineupHQ.
NHL DFS Picks: Slate Summary for Tuesday, March 19th
Slate Overview
There are 13 games on tonight’s slate, which, frankly, is too many games. The Oilers immediately jump to the top of the list with their 4.4 implied team total as -380 favorites against the Canadiens at home. I’ve been willing to fade them at spots this year, especially on the road, but this one seems like the stars are aligning for an eruption. The Predators join them on the brink of tier 1 thanks to the tastiest of matchups versus the Sharks at home. The Avalanche officially make up their own tier if you believe the implied team total, but I’ll be lower than consensus and think they belong with the seven other teams with implied team totals of 3.6 to 3.7. The Wild should be the most popular of this bunch. Other than the Oilers/Predators/Wild, I expect ownership to be evenly distributed.
From an injury or contest standpoint, there’s not a lot worth pointing out as of now. If anything changes, you can be sure it’ll be covered in the RG NHL Discord.
Top Skaters
Two of the highest owned players of the slate will be Filip Forsberg and Kirill Kaprizov. I obviously like them both and they’ll be in consideration for my SE lineup. I didn’t end up writing them up, but know that they are excellent plays both as one-offs and as part of stacks.
Connor McDavid
DraftKings $10,000
Some people don’t believe that home/road splits are statistically significant and that they are too noisy or too small of a sample size to be meaningful. I disagree, especially in hockey, where there is literally a tactical advantage in being at home due to the second change. McDavid’s splits are about as extreme as they come for a superstar with 51 points at home compared to 30 on the road, despite playing one more game away from home.
Prior to being shut down in a difficult matchup against the Avalanche, McDavid had back-to-back 3-point contests. He isn’t shooting at an astounding rate, but the efficiency and number of assists have more than made up for it. His salary is $10,000, or $500 less than Nathan MacKinnon. At a minimum, they should be swapped tonight, but you could argue McDavid should be priced at $11,000. The matchup is a little complicated because Montreal isn’t good, but their goaltending has been. Ultimately, I don’t think it’ll be enough to matter, as Edmonton should still be able to net 4+ goals tonight.
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