NHL Grind Down: Friday, February 2nd

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-02-02 19:19:58 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins

Washington Capitals					Pittsburgh Penguins
			Braden Holtby					Matt Murray
			Record					Record
			30-15-5					28-21-3
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.04	2.80	20.89	80.36	Team Stats	2.96	2.96	26.67	82.22

Capitals Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 55.8 CF/60 (21) | 59.67 CA/60 (7) | 2.14 xGF/60 (22) | 2.49 xGA/60 (3)

Washington is coming off a nice win over the Flyers, but they don’t have a great spot for a follow up. The Penguins, after being one of the worst defenses in the league, have become a difficult opponent. In the past month, the Penguins have been among the best teams limiting shot attempts and scoring chances at 5v5. Their high-danger attempts allowed are up a bit, but the Penguins are controlling play and haven’t been the defensive liability they used to be.

Washington, meanwhile, isn’t the offensive powerhouse many think. Driving play and controlling possession has been a major issue, and the quality of chances performed has been lacking. Washington’s expected goal rate as 5v5 is just a smidge over two goals per game, certainly a number that disappoints given the Caps’ makeup.

It’s not necessarily a problem with the top six, as the Caps have capable scorers on each of their top two lines. Evgeny Kuznetsov is centering Alex Ovechkin and Tom Wilson while Nicklas Backstrom works between T.J. Oshie and Andre Burakovsky. While Ovi and his line tend to get the love, the Backstrom line has just as much upside and just as much — if not more — floor. The reason is that Oshie and Backstrom are both strong drivers of play while Kuznetsov are Ovi are a bit more reliant on their linemates.

This is a game that Pittsburgh could very well control from start to finish. Washington’s 5v5 issues introduce a bit of risk and negate the issue of HDCA/60 with Pittsburgh’s defense.