NHL Grind Down: Friday, March 16th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-03-16 18:18:54 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

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Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights

Minnesota Wild					Vegas Golden Knights
			Devan Dubnyk					Marc-Andre Fleury
			Record					Record
			39-24-7					45-20-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.06	2.87	20.95	79.32	Team Stats	3.34	2.76	21.96	80.10

Wild Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 53.77CF/60 (28) | 58.89 CA/60 (14) | 2.22 xGF/60 (20) | 1.86 xGA/60 (31)

Though the Golden Knights were destroyed by the New Jersey Devils in their last game, that seems more like an outlier than a new trend. Vegas remains a very strong defensive team, especially on home ice. They have a bottom third 5v5 rate of expected goals allowed and one of the lowest shot attempt rates. Some goaltending woes are working through the wire, but overall Vegas is not a pushover team for opposing offenses.

At the same time, Minnesota isn’t exactly a powerhouse offense. They have one of the worst shot attempts rates in the league, and they don’t exactly make up for it with a high rate of scoring chances or HD shot attempts. Their expected goal rate is in the bottom third of the league at 5v5 and outside of the top line, offensive contributions have been inconsistent. They are also a team that tends to play better at home as opposed to on the road.

Lately Minnesota’s offense has perked up a bit, mostly driven by the talented top line of Eric Staal, Mikael Granlund, and Jason Zucker. Zucker looks to be okay after taking an awkward spill last game so the top line should stay intact. While this line has been fantastic at 5v5, the usual disclaimer for Vegas is applicable: What happens in…wait, no. The top line is likely to get the treatment from the Marchessault line at 5v5, a strong line in their own right (especially defensively).

The better matchup will pass to the second line of Mikko Koivu, Charlie Coyle, and Zach Parise. Of course, this line doesn’t have the lid lifting ability of the top line. Parise is back to his high shooting ways, at least, after a slow start to his campaign. Koivu is a good playmaker so the line has that going for it. Nino Niederreiter gets a winnable matchup from the third line, but he’s skating with Tyler Ennis and Matt Cullen so… he’s pretty much on an island. It’s been a disappointing season for Nino, to be sure.

Wild Special Teams Outlook
The Golden Knights have been good this year in avoiding going to the penalty box, and also playing sound defensive hockey when they do find themselves shorthanded. Thus, the Wild don’t really get a great power play matchup in the desert.

Wild Goaltending Outlook
The Dubs is one of the most obnoxious goalies to try and call in any given night. Minnesota is a strong defensive team, so there’s a nice foundation to work with for Devan Dubnyk. They have a higher rate of CA/60 compared to their rate of quality attempts and scoring chances allowed. Just when it all adds up to look like a favorable setup, he does something like he did last game and allows five goals on just 22 shots — a GPP killing night. There is reason for optimism with Dubnyk as the Golden Knights have seen their offensive metrics tank in the last month, including HD shot attempts where they have been one of the worst teams at 5v5. Minnesota is a better defense at home compared to on the road but they still have elite overall shot suppression rates in the past month.

Golden Knights Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 59.92 CF/60 (13) | 55.48 CA/60 (29) | 2.24 xGF/60 (17) | 2.14 xGA/60 (24)

The Golden Knights have started to slow a bit as an offense. Their 5v5 rates of shot attempts and scoring chances were always just above the league median line, but lately they have slipped well past it. In the last month of play (14 games for Vegas), the Knights have the second worst HDCF/60 while settling in the bottom third of teams generating scoring chances.

Though the Wild defense comes down a peg when they are out of Minnesota, they are overall a solid defensive team nonetheless. They have the lowest expected goals allowed rate at 5v5 and while they allow a fair amount of overall shot attempts, they limit scoring chances and quality attempts quite well. They also have a pair of defensive centers that will gum things up against Vegas’s top six.

The Vegas top six could get a boost tonight if James Neal and/or Reilly Smith can return. It sounds like both are close, in particular Neal, who has been out with a hand injury since February 26. Keep an eye on the line assignments based on their statuses.

With Smith, the top line duo of Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson have been utilizing the services of Alex Tuch. Tuch is good but him returning to the third line would deepen the Vegas offense. The Marchessault line tends to take on enemy top lines, which means the dangerous Staal line for Minnesota tonight. This could be a situation where both top lines cancel each other out to some extent as both play well defensively.

In Neal’s place on the second line, Tomas Tatar has been working with David Perron and Erik Haula. Again, Tatar moving back to the third line suddenly makes the Vegas offense more dangerous as depth scoring has been their main issue this year. A 5v5 matchup with the Koivu line once again isn’t ideal. This line is less explosive than the Marchessault line so they have a little less room for error, if you will. Tatar and Tuch would conceivably skate with Cody Eakin on the third line and would get a much better matchup even if they do have to deal with Niederreiter at 5v5.

Golden Knights Special Teams Outlook
The Wild go shorthanded fairly regularly as they average 3.4 times shorthanded per game. Vegas has done alright on the power play, but the Wild maintain their system of quality control while shorthanded. The overall shot attempts are up but the quality of them is low, as are scoring chances allowed. On paper anyway, this game sets up as a tougher one for both offenses at both 5v5 and on the penalty kill.

Golden Knights Goaltending Outlook
Regular readers will no doubt know what’s coming here: talk of regression in Marc-Andre Fleury ‘s numbers. It’s been long overdue and MAF has had a controlled descent of sorts in his save percentage. Well, that changed last game. The larger point is that Fleury is now at .927 on the year and that still may be on the high side. Vegas’s defense is legit so at least he has help in front of him. But there are real concerns with a veteran, oft-injured goalie getting a huge workload, no? To be fair his previous three starts were solid, but Philly, Buffalo, and Detroit aren’t a murderers row of offense. While this game has the potential to be one of the lower scoring games of the night, Fleury’s not the slam dunk play he would have been a month or two ago going against a mediocre offense.

Wild Elite Plays: None
Wild Secondary Plays: Eric Staal, Jason Zucker, Mikael Granlund, Zach Parise, Nino Niederreiter
Stackability: Orange
Goaltending: Orange / Yellow

Golden Knights Elite Plays: Jonathan Marchessault
Golden Knights Secondary Plays: William Karlsson, Alex Tuch, Tomas Tatar, David Perron
Stackability: Orange
Goaltending: Orange / Yellow

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