NHL Grind Down: Friday, March 30th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-04-04 01:46:02 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals

Carolina Hurricanes					Washington Capitals
			Cam Ward					Braden Holtby
			Record					Record
			34-32-11
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.75	3.13	19.05	77.30	Team Stats	3.12	2.91	22.81	80.08

Hurricanes Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 63.22 CF/60 (3) | 53.45 CA/60 (30) | 2.44 xGF/60 (7) | 2.18 xGA/60 (22)

The Hurricanes have nothing to play for, but assuming they show up mentally, they have a nice matchup on tap. Though the Capitals do play a bit better at home, they are still a flawed defense. Their expected goals allowed rate is up to third highest in the league. They allow a high rate of shot attempts, including from quality spots, and scoring chances at 5v5 and while shorthanded. Goaltending has been a concern.

This is all good news for Carolina as Washington’s weaknesses align with Carolina’s strengths. The Canes dominate play at 5v5, can dial up scoring chances, have a strong power play, and have three competent scoring lines to challenge Washington’s depth.

Line assignments can never be taken for granted with Bill Peters, but they haven’t changed in a few games now (maybe that’s bad?). Valentin Zykov has fit in quite well with Carolina, and it certainly helps playing with Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. His success has allowed Jordan Staal to move to the second line with Justin Williams and Brock McGinn, while Jeff Skinner continues to work on the third line with Elias Lindholm and Phil Di Giuseppe.

The high end line is Aho-Zykov-Teravainen. Though the three of them don’t have a big sample together at 5v5 (just 44 minutes) they are dominating when they are on the ice. Wait, is a 67% CF% dominant? Yes, yes it is. This line figures to draw the Backstrom line at 5v5, so it’s a tougher matchup but not an impossible one. GPP players can look to Staal-Williams-McGinn as they will come at low ownership but will win their 5v5 matchups. They carry play very well and there is finishing ability here. Jeff Skinner gets arguably the best matchup against a weak Washington depth group, but his line doesn’t have the highest upside. Skinner is always in play as a one off, especially as his shot volume stabilizes at a nice rate. Best of all, on DK all of the Canes are quite affordable and won’t come heavily owned.

Hurricanes Special Teams Outlook
Being bullish on Carolina makes sense tonight. In addition to their strong 5v5 matchup, they get an A+ power play draw. The Capitals have struggled mightily while shorthanded, as their shot and chance suppression rates are all among the top ten (and top five in the case of scoring chances and HD attempts) worst in the league. Carolina’s power play has been great, so they should easily capitalize on the weak Washington defenders. The Capitals go shorthanded at an elevated rate (3.3) so the power play group will get on the ice.