NHL Grind Down: Friday, March 9th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-03-09 19:53:34 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Detroit Red Wings at Columbus Blue Jackets

Detroit Red Wings					Columbus Blue Jackets
			Jared Coreau					Sergei Bobrovsky
			Record					Record
			26-30-11					35-28-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.59	2.98	18.75	77.78	Team Stats	2.60	2.73	14.52	77.33

Red Wings Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 54.41 CF/60 (27) | 57.98 CA/60 (18) | 2.14 xGF/60 (24) | 2.32 xGA/60 (15)

The Red Wings are hardly an interesting offense for DFS purposes. They play slow, they don’t generate a high rate of shot attempts or scoring chances, and they have an overall lack of talent on the roster. On a short slate, however, they deserve a bit of our attention.

Columbus has mostly been playing pretty well at 5v5. They’ve been limiting overall shot attempts quite well of late, though they do struggle a bit with high-danger shot attempts allowed. As the Red Wings don’t tend to generate a volume of such attempts, they may struggle to exploit the Jackets’ weakness. Detroit also loses out by having to deal with Sergei Bobrovsky as he got the night off last night.

In yesterday’s Grind Down, we discussed how Henrik Zetterberg and Gustav Nyquist suffered a net loss to their value when Anthony Mantha was replaced by Tyler Bertuzzi. All offensive metrics decline rather substantially for Zetterberg and Nyquist without Mantha. The top line also still tends to draw defensive attention, and that could be a problem tonight as the Jackets have a few strong defensive pieces (top line, Seth Jones).

Mantha’s loss from the top line was fine with Dylan Larkin. The second line also because much more intriguing with Martin Frk getting summoned from the depths of the roster. Frk-Larkin-Mantha are a very talented group of young forwards and have great appeal together. Larkin and Mantha drive play very well and create plenty of shot attempts. Frk is relatively green but has looked good when given an opportunity. It’s not a high floor spot but this line is great for tournaments as they are the best bet to capitalize on Columbus’s struggles with high-danger shot attempts allowed at 5v5.

Red Wings Special Teams Outlook
Detroit hasn’t been a great power play team this year, but Columbus hasn’t been a shut down penalty group either. The biggest issue for the Wings, perhaps moreso than dealing with Bobrovsky, is the fact the Blue Jackets are one of the least penalized teams in the NHL. Columbus only goes shorthanded about 2.6 times per game, so power play opportunities figure to be limited for Detroit.

Red Wings Goaltending Outlook
With Jimmy Howard playing last night, the Wings will likely turn back to Jared Coreau. We last saw Coreau getting roasted by the Bruins, certainly a forgivable sin at this point. Columbus’s offense is playing very well at the moment, and Detroit could struggle to slow them down. The Wings like to play a slower game to limit chances and shot attempts, but that may be hard to do against one of the most productive offenses over the last month.