NHL Grind Down: Thursday, March 8th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-03-09 03:36:32 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Colorado Avalanche at Columbus Blue Jackets

Colorado Avalanche					Columbus Blue Jackets
			Semyon Varlamov					Joonas Korpisalo
			Record					Record
			35-24-7					34-28-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.11	2.94	20.33	83.26	Team Stats	2.60	2.73	14.52	77.33

Avalanche Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 55.47 CF/60 (25) | 60.45 CA/60 (5) | 1.85 xGF/60 (30) | 2.14 xGA/60 (22)

Colorado is another team that is pretty easy to break down in any given night. They have one dominant line, and not a lot much after that. They are only bested by Buffalo for worst 5v5 expected goal rate, and the quality of forwards they have in the middle six isn’t impressive. Systems issues also seem to a problem.

Tonight they have a matchup with a Columbus team that can play a bit fast and does have a high expected goals allowed rate at 5v5. It would seem that they are a team to pick on but that hasn’t really been the case of late. In the last month, they Blue Jackets have one of the lowest rates of shot attempts allowed. High-danger attempts are elevated a bit, but for a team like Colorado that doesn’t create many overall shot attempts (or quality ones), the matchup may not be exploitable.

Outside of the top line of Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen, the Avalanche have a collection of low floor, low ceiling plays. Tyson Jost, J.T. Compher, and Alexander Kerfoot aren’t getting it done as secondary options. The MacKinnon line is doing it all, but they may have a very difficult matchup here. Columbus’s top line doesn’t always skate against opposing top lines, but they do — and did last game. They are very sound defensively. The MacKinnon line is typically one we prefer at home. They are hot, they may not see the Dubois line all the time, and the Jackets have had some issues withh HD shot attempts, so it’s not a complete fade spot, but it’s also probably not a ceiling game.

Avalanche Special Teams Outlook
Optimism for the top line is extended a bit via their power play matchup. The Blue Jackets sit 12th in all of shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts allowed per hour while shorthanded. The caveat is that Columbus is one of the more well disciplined teams in the league, going shorthanded the second fewest times on the year (2.6 times per game on average). So while the MacKinnon line won’t get a ton of opportunities on the advantage, they should get a few good looks when they get there.

Avalanche Goaltending Outlook