NHL Grind Down: Tuesday, April 3rd

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-04-04 01:28:26 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Detroit Red Wings at Columbus Blue Jackets

Detroit Red Wings					Columbus Blue Jackets
			Record					Record
			30-38-11					44-29-6
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.56	3.04	17.04	78.05	Team Stats	2.85	2.70	15.35	77.72

Red Wings Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 54.66 CF/60 (27) | 57.73 CA/60 (18) | 2.15 xGF/60 (23) | 2.28 xGA/60 (17)

Despite some recent outbursts, the Red Wings remain a subpar offense. They play a slow game and are a low event group as whole. They also have questionable line assignments, often featuring washed veterans at the expense of young talent.

Though the Blue Jackets have a high expected goals allowed rate at 5v5, they are not a favorable matchup for the Wings. For one, Detroit lacks the high tempo needed to capitalize. For another, Columbus enters this game in great form, particularly on defense. They have limited shot attempts and scoring chances against well. There have been some HD attempts creeping in, but note that the Wings have the sixth lowest rate of such chances produced per hour in the last month. At home and with a Vezina quality netminder, Detroit is likely to struggle.

We saw some in-game line assignment changes last game for Detroit, so maybe there is some hope that Jeff Blashill will do something right with his forward group tonight. It also means there is a little uncertainty as to who will play with who. Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha were split up in-game last time out, with Mantha working alongside Andreas Athanasiou and Evgeny Svechnikov. Hey now, that’s not too bad. Larkin, Mantha, and Athanasiou were also used together for a few minutes, which would be an intriguing contrarian line as they would actually be able to take advantage of the HD attempt issue Columbus has had. The only consistent line was Gustav Nyquist, Henrik Zetterberg, and Tyler Bertuzzi, and they aren’t the most exciting line.

Red Wings Special Teams Outlook
The Red Wings are unlikely to get their power play team out tonight as Columbus is the second least penalized team in the league. They are averaging just less than 2.6 times shorthanded per game. Detroit’s power play hasn’t been anything special anyway, so there would be much of a value bump even if they were likely to get on the ice more. Columbus has been about middle of the packin their shot metrics defensively while shorthanded.

Red Wings Goaltending Outlook
Given how well Columbus is playing right now, neither Jimmy Howard nor Jared Coreau make interesting starts. The Jackets have a fairly potent offense, as evident from their league best xGF/60. The Red Wings lack talent on their blueline, and a slow paced game is about the only trick they have in their arsenal. Expect the Jackets to push the play a bit here and control this game at 5v5.

Blue Jackets Offensive Outlook