NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, April 4th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-04-04 14:11:03 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres

Ottawa Senators					Buffalo Sabres
			Craig Anderson					Chad Johnson
			Record					Record
			27-41-11					25-42-12
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.70	3.46	17.01	75.68	Team Stats	2.38	3.33	18.70	77.63

Senators Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 55.55 CF/60 (26) | 64.71 CA/60 (2) | 2.06 xGF/60 (27) | 2.44 xGA/60 (6)

I would like to have a word with the person in charge of scheduling at the NHL corporate office. Another short slate featuring Sabres and/or Senators, really?

With two bad teams meeting up, anything can happen, I guess. But the Senators haven’t been a very good offense this year or of late, and they are going to be without their key puck moving defenseman. Though Mark Stone may return, there aren’t a ton of high end options here and the loss of Karlsson is huge.

In the last month the Senators sit near the bottom of the league creating shot attempts and scoring chances. The Sabres had previously been a defense that was bad but not terrible and on home ice they held their own. Over the last month as the season has waned, the Sabres metrics have deteriorated. They have allowed top ten rates of shot attempts and scoring chances at 5v5 and goaltending hasn’t been great.

In addition to Karlsson’s absence tonight, we get a potential bummer with Mike Hoffman and Matt Duchene split up. In theory one of them should get to play with Stone if he can suit up (though he’ll be rusty). At practice yesterday Duchene centered Ryan Dzingel and Bobby Ryan with Hoffman working on the second line with Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Tom Pyatt.

There’s not a ton to like with that setup. At least one of these lines, likely the Duchene line, will need to deal with Ryan O’Reilly at 5v5. ROR has played a solid defensive role this year. Duchene is in good form at the moment though, with two three point games in his past four efforts. Hoffman is also playing well but the two key forwards would be best served on a line together. The lack of Karlsson’s abilities hurts their value a bit.

Senators Special Teams Outlook
The Sabres are not anything special when they are shorthanded, so in theory this is a spot in which the Senators could do well. Buffalo allows a fairly high rate of shot attempts and their scoring chances are middle of the pack. Of course, Ottawa is going to be missing their power play quarterback, so that doesn’t help matters. It does open the door for Thomas Chabot to be a value play. Note that the Sabres don’t go shorthanded at a high rate, just 2.9 times per game, so opportunities could be limited.