NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, December 6th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-12-06 19:34:15 Premium Content Part of the product SimLabs+

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs

Calgary Flames					Toronto Maple Leafs
			Mike Smith					Frederik Andersen
			Record					Record
			14-12-1					17-10-1
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.89	3.26	20.43	75.28	Team Stats	3.50	2.96	23.17	82.02

Flames Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 62.96 CF/60 (4) | 58.45 CA/60 (12) | 2.37 xGF/60 (10) | 2.28 xGA/60 (13)

The Flames are in a bit of a lull at the moment. Before heading east they dropped two straight games on home ice. The Leafs represent a tricky matchup for Calgary as the team has been middle of the pack defensively, but they tend to play a bit fast. That opens up the defense a bit, but there are some matchup concerns and Frederik Andersen has been strong.

Calgary’s best bet here is that the Leafs oblige and open the game up. That’s because the Flames have two strong 5v5 lines. Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, and Micheal Ferland have a 5v5 CF% on-par with the 3M line (Mikael Granlund, Michael Frolik, Matthew Tkachuk).

The Monahan line carries the higher upside as they are a much more explosive line. The 3M line pushes play quite well and is quite well-rounded. Look for the Monahan line to see Nazem Kadri ‘s line and Morgan Rielly on the blueline at 5v5. This matchup sets up to be one that the Calgary top line can get some shot attempts off, but they will likely be of diminished quality. The second line will likely see the ice against Auston Matthews. Matthews has the ability to dominate play but his lines have also posted some favorable defensive metrics for opposing offenses.

As short slate rules apply, we have to touch on Calgary’s third line, which has been playing some strong hockey under the cover of the top six. Mark Jankowski, Jaromir Jagr, and Sam Bennett should work against Toronto’s third line, which is typically sheltered as they can be a defensive liability. In over 100 minutes this line has a HDCF/60 of 15.79. The matchup will suffer some if William Nylander slots in for Tyler Bozak, but it’s still one that has potential for Calgary.

The Leafs tend to allow offensive defensemen to find some success, so Dougie Hamilton and Mark Giordano should be able to activate tonight.

Flames Special Teams Outlook
Calgary’s strong power play may not matter too much tonight. The Leafs don’t go shorthanded very often and when they do they’ve been pretty strong defensively. The Flames have been a top ten team in terms of generating shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts while on the power play.

Flames Goaltending Outlook
Bad Mike Smith has been making a regular appearance for Calgary. While the Calgary defense has been underachieving this year, they haven’t been completely worthless. Tonight they will be challenged by a deep and very dangerous Toronto offense. Smith will be busy, but he’s also likely to allow a few pucks to sneak past him.