NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, February 28th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-02-28 23:33:53 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning

Buffalo Sabres					Tampa Bay Lightning
			Robin Lehner					Andrei Vasilevskiy
			Record					Record
			19-33-11					43-17-3
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.40	3.25	17.28	79.26	Team Stats	3.54	2.67	24.32	77.78

Sabres Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 50.01 CF/60 (31) | 58.77 CA/60 (14) | 1.77 xGF/60 (31) | 2.2 xGA/60 (20)

The Sabres have the worst offensive numbers by any metric, across the board and without exception, in the entire league at 5v5. They “accomplished” this feat while having Jack Eichel and Evander Kane in their ranks. Well, Eichel (injury) and Kane (banishment) are no longer in the lineup. Oh, and Kyle Okposo may not play as his wife gives birth (congrats Okposo’s welcome to team #NoSleep). It’s hard to get excited by the Sabres offense, even in the deepest sense of the word contrarian.

As if having a horrible offense wasn’t bad enough, the Sabres also get a brutal road draw tonight. They will get to face a Lightning team that has played very well defensively this year, and they have a likely Vezina finalist in net (maybe they’ll luck out and get Domingue, though). Overall shot attempts and scoring chances will be highly limited tonight.

With Kane the Sabres mostly consolidated their talent to the top line. Ryan O’Reilly and Sam Reinhart will now look to have a new winger. Zemgus Girgensons practiced on the top line yesterday. This guy just can’t get out of the Buffalo top six (not that there are many options) and he has failed to produce despite often playing with Eichel. In any event, this line is going to get the Point line from Tampa plus one of Victor Hedman or Anton Stralman on the blueline. Hard pass.

Sabres Special Teams Outlook
The Bolts have an ugly 77% penalty kill efficiency, but it seems like that number has some bad luck depressing it. Tampa Bay has defended high-danger shot attempts well while shorthanded, and their rates of overall shot attempts and scoring chances allowed on the PK are middle of the pack or better. As Buffalo’s power play is not great and they are missing two of their better players (well three if Okposo can’t go), they are more likely to help push that 77% higher than they are to go one for four or whatever.

Sabres Goaltending Outlook
It sounds like Robin Lehner asked for a trade out of Buffalo, and as that didn’t happen, it’s fair to wonder if Lehner will be checked out down the stretch. It seems like he’s maybe not so vested now, as he has allowed 18 goals over his last five games. Chad Johnson hasn’t been any better this year, and has in fact been worse. Buffalo has mostly done well defensively, but a road game in Tampa against the juggernaut Lightning offense is a shy away matchup.