NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, February 7th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-02-08 00:07:28 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs

Nashville Predators					Toronto Maple Leafs
			Pekka Rinne					Frederik Andersen
			Record					Record
			32-12-7					31-19-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.08	2.49	23.89	82.11	Team Stats	3.18	2.78	20.92	82.42

Predators Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 59.6 CF/60 (14) | 55.7 CA/60 (26) | 2.1 xGF/60 (24) | 2.22 xGA/60 (19)

The Predators may not have strong offensive numbers, but they get a matchup enhancement tonight that should be able to boost their outlook here. The Maple Leafs are back to playing fast paced, back and forth hockey that exposes them a bit in their own end. The Leafs have one of the highest per-hour rates of scoring chances allowed at 5v5 over the past month, and their high-danger attempts are elevated as well.

Nashville’s offense doesn’t really move the needle much with Filip Forsberg out. Their top two centers don’t possess high end point-getting skills and the system has produced a mediocre expected goal rate. Since January 1, the Predators have one of the worst rates of scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts generated at 5v5.

There’s also a bit of a matchup concern with Toronto’s Kadri line and Morgan Rielly. With Forsberg out there’s no obvious top line here, but attention still seems likely to go to Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson. The second line of Kyle Turris, Craig Smith, and Kevin Fiala have the numbers under the hood. They should be able to generate plenty of chances, especially in a high-event matchup with the Matthews line. (Of course, the Leafs could just as easily recognize the Turris line is a bit more dangerous than the top line without Forsberg.)

Predators Special Teams Outlook
The Leafs aren’t a great matchup for opposing power plays. Coach Mike Babcock keeps the team pretty well disciplined, as Toronto goes shorthanded just three times per game on average. The Leafs also rank near the bottom of the league in shot attempt quantity and quality allowed, so volume will be an issue for the Predators — they don’t drum up attempts and chances in high quantities.