NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, March 14th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-03-15 00:42:41 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs

Dallas Stars					Toronto Maple Leafs
			Kari Lehtonen					Frederik Andersen
			Record					Record
			38-26-6					40-22-7
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.81	2.58	19.81	83.26	Team Stats	3.22	2.83	21.81	82.65

Stars Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 58.57 CF/60 (16) | 55.59 CA/60 (26) | 2.26 xGF/60 (15) | 1.91 xGA/60 (30)

The Stars haven’t really been able to harness the full firepower of their weaponry, and at this point Dallas is nothing more than a mediocre offense overall. The good news for us is that they look to have the top line loaded with the DFS relevant names we know.

Defensively the Leafs aren’t a shutdown unit, but they also are not a blueline sieve. They’re pretty much middle of the pack at 5v5 in allowing shot attempts and scoring chances. It’s not a great matchup for Dallas because their offense lags away from the top line. A fast style of play from Toronto will enhance the outlook for the Dallas top line, however.

That top line consists of Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, and Alexander Radulov, of course. They are the only reliable group of forwards for the Stars. They figure to see a fair amount of the Kadri line for Toronto but that hasn’t been the shutdown matchup is used to be. This line is explosive and should do their part to turn this game into a track meet. They’re unlikely to get “overlooked,” per se, but with attention more likely to go to the Leafs side of the game plus the Penguins, this line could come a bit underowned in GPPs.

Stars Special Teams Outlook
Dallas may not see their highly talented power play get to the ice very much as Toronto only goes shorthanded about 2.8 times per game, on the lower end of the scale compared to other teams. Defensively the Leafs have been solid while shorthanded, doing a good job limiting shot attempts and scoring chances to opposing power plays.

Stars Goaltending Outlook
With Ben Bishop still hurt, the Stars will give Kari Lehtonen a start for the second straight night. That’s not exactly ideal for a veteran netminder, especially with the starts coming on the road and tonight’s matchup against a potent offense. This will be Lehtonen’s third start in four nights as Bishop is on the mend, and he didn’t play particularly well just last night. He’s a highly risky play tonight in a game that could be one of the faster paced, higher scoring games of the night.