NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, March 7th

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2018-03-07 18:58:50 Premium Content Part of the product Combo Lite

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Team Ranking Key
CF = Corsi For = shot attempts generated
CA = Corsi Allowed = shot attempts allowed
xGF = expected goals scored
xGA = expected goals allowed
Numbers in parentheses denote the league ranking for the particular metric.

Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres

Calgary Flames					Buffalo Sabres
			Jon Gillies					Chad Johnson
			Record					Record
			32-25-10					21-34-11
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.78	2.90	17.83	80.62	Team Stats	2.41	3.23	17.50	78.87

Flames Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj): 64.97 CF/60 (2) | 58.24 CA/60 (16) | 2.45 xGF/60 (8) | 2.29 xGA/60 (17)

Among teams playing tonight, the Flames are the second best offense. They don’t have a great draw despite playing a Buffalo team firmly lodged in the cement of the foundation of the league basement. Buffalo has been a surprisingly competent defensive team, slowing the game down and limiting the chances that opposing offenses get. They shouldn’t be confused as a good defense, necessarily, but that bottom third 5v5 rate of expected goals allowed is impressive nonetheless.

All that being said, I’m not sure this is a spot to be overly concerned with Calgary’s offense. They have been a productive group, posting the second best rate of shot attempts at 5v5 and sitting inside the top ten for expected goals at 5v5. They have a dangerous top six and should be able to exploit Buffalo’s lack of depth with a decent-enough third line (for a short slate, anyway).

The toughest on-ice matchup will go to the best line Calgary has: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Micheal Ferland (or Troy Brouwer?). The third linemate is a punt as Monahan and Gaudreau run the show. Buffalo’s top line has two solid defensive forwards in its midst, and they are an ultra-low event line at 5v5. On a short slate the dynamic duo are going to be hard to ignore, but in GPPs they will likely be popular given that they are very #good and Vegas (the books not the team) will like the Flames.

If high ownership doesn’t sound great to you, then a pivot down to the 3M line of Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk, and Michael Frolik is for you. This line is highly dominant at 5v5 and they should smash the Buffalo middle six and bottom four defenders. They don’t have the high-end finish of the top line but they underlying numbers are all still highly favorable for this group. In close to 600 5v5 minutes together, they are averaging over 70 shot attempts and 12 high-danger shot attempts per hour.

Those looking to go even cheaper for punt plays to finish off a roster need to consider the third line. Mark Jankowski, Sam Bennett, and Garnet Hathaway are a cut-and-dried third line, but they have strong offensive numbers together. In nearly 300 minutes together they are creating over 13 high-danger shot attempts per hour and 32+ scoring chances. Don’t expect the world here, but as far as punts go, they should win their matchups against Buffalo’s weak depth.

Flames Special Teams Outlook
The Sabres are a middle of the pack defensive team when they go shorthanded. They allow a slightly elevated rate of overall shot attempts but they are right in the thick of the pack with scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts allowed. They go shorthanded just under three times per game, so a lower rate compared to many other teams. Calgary has been strong on the advantage this year, but this is mostly a neutral matchup for them.