NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, November 1st

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-11-01 18:05:39 Premium Content Part of the product SimLabs+

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System (Offense):

Green : Friendly matchup at 5v5 and/or on the power play; multiple lines worth stacking
Yellow : Line specific matchup at 5v5 and/or friendly power play matchup
Orange : Stacking is best left for GPPs, secondary scoring units and/or power play in tough matchup
Red : Difficult 5v5 and/or power play matchup, stacking not advisable

Stackability Rating System (Goalies):

Green : Goalie has a plus draw and is playable in all formats
Yellow : There is risk at 5v5 or the penalty kill; iffy for cash games and better for GPPs
Orange : Realistic risk at 5v5 and the penalty kill; not advisable in cash games but viable in GPPs
Red : Elevated risk in all situations and not a recommend crease to chase

Philadelphia Flyers at Chicago Blackhawks

Philadelphia Flyers					Chicago Blackhawks
			Brian Elliott					Corey Crawford
			Record					Record
			6-5-1					5-5-2
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.42	2.92	23.26	79.07	Team Stats	3.17	2.83	12.73	82.69

Flyers Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj) (12 games): 54 CF/60 (24) | 56.26 CA/60 (25) | 2.08 xGF/60 (23) | 2.09 xGA/60 (27)

The Flyers draw a favorable matchup against a struggling Chicago defense tonight. Of course, Philadelphia’s offense is no juggernaut, but the top line figures to be in a nice position to continue their strong play.

Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier, and Jakub Voracek have been one of the top lines in the league at generating shot attempts while at 5v5. Their likely dance partner will be Jonathan Toews and the top Chicago line. This is not a matchup to fear as Toews isn’t the shutdown center he is perceived to be. This should be a high-event 5v5 matchup in both directions, and given Chicago’s overall poor numbers, the Flyers can used confidently tonight.

Secondary scoring has been an issue for Philadelphia. The second line of Valterri Filppula, Wayne Simmonds, and Jordan Weal will be playing catchup to Patrick Kane and the second line. While Chicago’s second line isn’t a takeover unit, they are boosted by the recent addition of Brandon Saad. This line can also push the play. Despite Chicago’s overall struggles defensively, Philadelphia’s second line is a risky play given their offensive issues. Even Wayne Simmonds hasn’t been a reliable one-off of late.

With Nolan Patrick out of the lineup it seems unlikely that the third line can take advantage of a friendly matchup. Travis Konecny and Matt Read get a major downgrade with Jori Lehtera as center (and Read is a low end option to start).

Ivan Provorov gets a massive boost to his value as Shayne Gostisbehere will be out again tonight. Provorov was highly successful (and highly owned) taking the expanded role for “Ghost Bear” on Monday night. Look for Provorov to be both again tonight.

Flyers Special Teams Outlook
On the power play, look for the Philadelphia top line to continue to get their shot volume. Both the Flyers’ power play and Blackhawks’ penalty kills are around leage median. Note that in the last game, the Flyers kept the top line together (as opposed to moving Sean Couturier to the second unit) along with Wayne Simmonds and Ivan Provorov filling in. So far this season, Chicago has averaged the second highest time on ice while shorthanded on a per-game basis, so there should be plenty of opportunity here.

Flyers Goaltending Outlook
Brian Elliott was given a get-right draw in Philadelphia’s last game, but he failed to capitalize on home ice against the Arizona Coyotes. Michal Neuvirth should draw in tonight, and Neuvirth has been significantly better than Elliott to start the year. He’ll have his work cut out for him tonight against a Blackhawks offense that has been dangerous so far this year, even if they don’t have the best possession numbers. Chicago is flirting with a top ten xGF/60 at 5v5 and are always dangerous on home ice. The Flyers have played well defensively, but they come in to a hostile barn a bit shorthanded on the blueline. This is a crease to avoid.

Blackhawks Offensive Outlook

5v5 (adj) (12 games): 63.36 CF/60 (5) | 65.6 CA/60 (1) | 2.45 xGF/60 (11) | 2.8 xGA/60 (2)

The Blackhawks have been a high-event team to start the year. Their defense has been one to pick on on an almost nightly basis, and their offense has a very dangerous top six. Chicago’s matchup may not seem like a great one tonight as Philadelphia has a low xGA/60, but they are a bit undermanned on defense and the game is being held in Chicago.

Chicago mixed their lines up a bit in recent practices, with Alex DeBrincat joining Jonathan Toews on the top line and Richard Panik returning from the second line. This line is almost guaranteed to see most of their 5v5 time against Philadelphia’s top line, which limits their upside tonight. Though the Flyers’ top line has also been high-event, they are one of the better units are pushing play. With Brandon Saad gone (more in a second) this line loses some goal upside. It’s hard to get too excited by this line even on a five game slate.

Saad, however, remains a nice play tonight as he shifts down to play with Nick Schmaltz and Patrick Kane. Saad is an outstanding driver of play and will surely be a boost for Kane, and Kane’s playmaking (plus the attention he absorbs) will surely help Saad. Win-win (win). Going against a poor Philadelphia second line, this line has massive upside with a strong floor tonight. Avoiding Ivan Provorov would make the matchup that much better.

The remainder of Chicago’s forwards are less interesting, mostly because they don’t see a healthy amount of time on ice. Patrick Sharp has been “complaining” (in true hockey player form, which means barely audibly) about his ice time while Ryan Hartman is down on the fourth line. The Flyers depth has some holes in it, to be sure (Jori Lehtera) but these players remain risky fantasy tournament darts.

Blackhawks Special Teams Outlook
Chicago’s power play has generated a fair number of shot attempts but notsomuch on scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts. Some of their own inefficiency can be mitigated tonight by taking on a Philadelphia penalty kill that has so far killed penalties mostly poor (79.5%) and has allowed a fair amount of shot attempts and scoring chances.

Keep an eye on if the power play assignments change to correspond with the 5v5 line changes. As it stands, the top line plus Brandon Saad and Brent Seabrook play on unit, while Patrick Kane, Ryan Hartman, Nick Schmaltz, Patrick Sharp, and Duncan Keith play on another.

Blackhawks Goaltending Outlook
Corey Crawford will need to deal with one dangerous scoring line tonight, but gets a break as Philadelphia’s secondary scoring options haven’t been great. The Flyers have one of the lower expected goal rates at 5v5. Normally we would be thankful of the matchup as one line can typically be contained, but the Blackhawks have been disturbingly poor defensively this year. They have allowed the most shot attempts at 5v5 and have the highest expected goals-allowed rate by a fairly (un)healthy margin. Crawford can’t be trusted in cash games, but makes for a good tournament play on the hopes that the Philadelphia top line gets slowed up and the secondary scorers stay quiet.

Flyers Elite Plays: Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux, Ivan Provorov
Flyers Secondary Plays: Wayne Simmonds
Stackability: Yellow
Goaltending: Orange / Red

Blackhawks Elite Plays: Brandon Saad, Patrick Kane
Blackhawks Secondary Plays: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Ryan Hartman (GPP)
Stackability: Yellow / Orange
Goaltending: Yellow / Orange