NHL Tournament Plays: Saturday, March 21st
What is up RotoGrinders! Today is a big night in the hockey industry, and it is especially big for me. Tonight will be a chance of a lifetime in the DraftKings hockey finals. However, I will not that let me stop from sharing my insight, and hopefully that leads to some good karma. Anyways, let’s get right into it.
Goaltenders
If you have read my articles in the past, you will be aware that picking a goaltender has two philosophies. You can either target the goalie who won’t hurt you, or the goalie who can catapult you ahead of the field. If you want to take the safe route, taking a goalie against a team who you project will fire very little shots is an ideal strategy. If you want the high upside goalie, you should take a guy in a game which you expect to be fast-paced and likely to be the beneficiary of more save points, and goal support from his team. Tonight I will focus on the upside goalie. The “safe” play is typically ideal for your cash games and the “upside” goalie is better for your tournaments as a bad goalie play can really hurt in your head to heads.
Safe Plays
Pekka Rinne, Andrew Hammond, Marc-Andre Fleury
GPP Plays
Cam Talbot – Talbot faces a very underrated Canes hockey team that continue to fire shots and generate numerous scoring chances nightly. However, they are where they are because they don’t finish these chances. While many see the Rangers as an overwhelming favourite in this one, I see this being a really tight game, but with Cam Talbot being one of the hottest goalies in the NHL (.937 ADJ save %), and he has been fantastic for the Rangers this year, while on the flip side, Khudobin has been very inconsistent. I see this being a fast paced game with many chances for both sides, with the better team and goalie prevailing.
Jaroslav Halak – Halak is a great option tonight against a Devils team on a back to back. The Islanders have their best line back intact, and I expect Halak to receive plenty of goal support. With some of the easy plays in goal, Halak provides some cap relief, and a very good shot at a win tonight. The Devils are a team that score at a very low rate, and Halak has not lost to these guys all year.
Other Options – Corey Crawford, Steve Mason
Forwards
As always, if I recommend a player, I am recommending his linemates. If you are having trouble picking a linemate, let the tie go down to power play time. If two guys play together at even strength and on the power play, give the edge to the those pairings.
Jonathan Toews – Toews is a guy who has big upside every single night, and it increases when playing with the linemates he has the most success with. Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp and Jonathan Toews combine to have a 60% Corsi for, and face a very stingy Dallas defense. Despite Dallas being the top Corsi team in the NHL, they play at such a fast pace, that they give up numerous chances to score nightly, and any line this good is matchup proof. Toews has owned Seguin this year, as Seguin has posted a sub 40% Corsi in three of their four meetings and I expect the Toews line to shine once again, with Toews being the easiest to work in.
David Perron – Perron is a guy who has slowed down a lot playing with the Penguins, but I have reason to believe his fortunes will turn for the better tonight. Perron had great chemistry with Crosby when he first arrived, but his production has dropped big time. I believe this had to do with playing with the injured Patrick Hornqvist. In 127 minutes of ice time with Hornqvist, Perron had a 57% Corsi for, but took just 10 shots on net. This adds up to 5 individual shots per 60 minutes, roughly, and that is well below his season total. Hornqvist’s injury not only allows for Perron to be the main sniper on his line, but it also gets him a bump to the top power play unit, against the NHL’s worst penalty killing group.
Josh Bailey – The trio is back! The big three of Josh Bailey, Anders Lee, and John Tavares, who combine to attempt 70 shot attempts per 60 minutes on the ice together, will face an old, banged up Devils team, on a back to back. My only concern here is facing Cory Schneider, but with these three back together, you can expect for their volume of shots to pay off their modest salary. Bailey gets the slight edge over Anders Lee, as Bailey is slated on the top power play, though the Islanders power play is in flux, so we cannot be sure. However, any of the three on this line make for great plays this evening.
Bobby Ryan – Ryan gets the luxury of helping the Leafs sink their ship even further down. No team has given up more scoring chances than the Toronto Maple Leafs have since the trade deadline, in which they basically raised the white flag and traded all of their players. Ryan’s line is cold, but because of that they are cheap, and this is the perfect spot for them to bounce back. The Leafs are playing backup goaltender, James Reimer, who barely has a .900 save percentage. Ryan and Hoffman have terrific chemistry, and I expect Ottawa to win this in a route.
Other Options – Eric Staal, Taylor Hall (If he plays), Kyle Turris.
Defense
As always, I like to look for defensemen who play on the power play, and generate shots. That’s all you can really do.
Kris Letang – Letang gets a chance to QB the power play against the worst penalty kill, with Mike Smith as the last line of defense. The Coyotes penalty kill is brutal. Letang shoots a ton, blocks a lot of shots, and is very gifted offensively. Letang should see huge minutes, against this horrible Arizona team, and I like his potential at even strength as well
John Carlson – Carlson comes into this game averaging 6 power play points per 60 minutes. Carlson is slotted to play on the top unit, and he is facing the team that takes the most penalties, and have given up the most shot attempts per 60 minutes since the middle of February. This is an elite play if you can afford it.
Other Options – Erik Karlsson, Aaron Ekblad, Shea Weber, Morgan Rielly, Patrick Wiercioch