NL Wild Card Game Preview and Picks
For four Major League Baseball teams, it’s time to do or die. The four teams – the Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs from the National League and the Oakland Athletics and New York Yankees from the American League – will be featured in the MLB’s two wild-card games. For the two teams that win, they’ll be off to the rest of the MLB Playoffs. For the two that lose, it will be time to pack up your locker and head home.
Let’s break these games down to help you out from a bettor’s perspective. starting with the NL Wild Card between the Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs.
NL Wild Card Game: Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs
Tuesday, October 2, 2018, at 8 p.m. ET
Wrigley Field
Chicago, IL
Colorado Starting Pitcher: Kyle Freeland – 17-7, 2.85 ERA
Chicago Starting Pitcher: Jon Lester – 18-6, 3.32 ERA
Pitching Matchup
The Colorado Rockies have opted to go with their ace, Kyle Freeland, who had a very impressive regular season with a 17-7 record and a 2.85 ERA. Freeland will be working on three days’ rest, though, and that has been known to hurt pitchers in the past. Being a youthful 25 and having a strong bullpen behind him, Freeland supporters shouldn’t be too worried about his ability to provide a few very good innings in this matchup. Freeland’s stock goes up if the Cubs don’t go with a lot of right-handed batters in their lineup, as he’s been very good against left-handed hitters this year.
On the other side is the savvy veteran, Jon Lester. The 34-year-old has been in this position before and he’ll have the home crowd backing his every pitch. Lester does bring the higher ERA of the two pitchers to the table, but he’ll be working on normal rest.
Both pitchers have been hot to close out the season. In a normal case where we’d give the nod to Freeland and the incredible season he’s having, the short rest and playoff inexperience could very well sway things back in favor of Lester.
Keys for the Rockies
Colorado’s bats didn’t pop when they faced the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday. The Rockies have also hit worse on the road than they have at home, which is no surprise given the team plays at Coors Field. It’s these bats that will need to pop against the Cubs if they want to see another postseason game.
Colorado should have the advantage in the bullpen for this one, as most of their bullpen pitchers are throwing very well right now. The bullpen is going to be a big key for the Rockies, especially if the short rest gets to Freeland early. That said, you should feel confident in the momentum this bullpen is carrying into the postseason and the notion that they’re the better unit than Chicago’s bullpen.
Keys for the Cubs
Anytime you’re going against a pitcher on short rest, you’re going to want to jump on him early. That’s what the Cubs will want to do here, at home. Make Freeland work and do your damage in the early innings knowing that you have a veteran pitcher in Lester on the mound who can, hopefully, control things on the other side. Chicago’s offense has been very hit or miss this season, no pun intended. They either hit very well and score a bit or they just don’t hit at all. If Freeland starts dealing and comfortably makes it to this Rockies bullpen, it’s not going to be good for the Cubs.
Additionally, Chicago’s bullpen is going to need to overperform. Colorado’s bullpen is the better of the two, but this is where this game, and the postseason in general, will be won or lost.
Does Home Field Matter?
It matters because Colorado’s home field is such a different animal. At Coors Field, the balls carry a lot in the thin air and it’s wide open. Heck, they had to install humidors at the ballpark to store the baseballs so that more moisture could be absorbed in the balls and they’d have more weight. According to many, this is one big reason why the Rockies hit much better at home and worse on the road. In a confined ballpark like Wrigley Field without a ton of open space and where the winds can have a big effect on things, we could see the Rockies bats fail to pop for the second night in a row. That’s not a given that the Cubs will hit, though, just as they failed to when they played the Milwaukee Brewers Monday night and lost at home, scoring just one run off three hits.
SharpSide’s Picks
Take the underdog in the Colorado Rockies here. Both teams are hitting lefties about the same and doing well with it, but the Rockies have the pitching edge all around. Although he’s on short rest, Freeland shouldn’t be asked to go more than five innings and he should be able to produce a very solid five innings. In turn, that will allow Colorado to get to the bullpen confidently in order to put the game away.
The public is also heavily favoring the Cubs, and it’s generally best to fade the public. Look to grab the Rockies at +120 or higher for a nice play.
You can also look to grab the under on the runs total, as this should be a low-scoring affair.
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