NLCS Game 1 Preview: Dodgers vs. Braves Odds & Prediction
Dodgers vs. Braves Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -112 |
| Braves Odds | -104 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 16 |
| Time | 8:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
On Saturday evening, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves will battle for the second consecutive year in the National League Championship Series at Truist Park. Los Angeles will be making their fifth trip to the NLCS in the last six years. In Game 1, the Dodgers will send Corey Knebel to the hill as the opener for a bullpen game. He will be opposed by Max Fried. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair in the series opener, pricing Los Angeles as -112 road favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 1 of the NLCS.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-104)
Knebel is likely to only pitch one or two innings in this contest, considering that he has not faced more than eight batters in any appearance all season, and has only faced more than six batters in an outing one time in 2021. Knebel was strong down the stretch in the regular season with a 0.71 ERA, 1.67 FIP, 29.8 strikeout percentage, 6.4 percent walk rate, and a 0.79 FIP over his last 11 appearances. In the postseason, he has delivered 2.1 scoreless innings across three trips to the mound. Tony Gonsolin is likely to see an extended run out of the bullpen in this game. Across 55.2 innings of work this season, Gonsolin posted a 3.23 ERA, 3.68 xERA, and a 4.53 FIP. However, he struggled to a 4.05 ERA and a 4.67 FIP after returning from injury in September. Manager Dave Roberts would be smart to minimize Gonsolin’s exposure to the middle of the Atlanta lineup tonight.
The Los Angeles lineup features big names such as Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Will Smith, A.J. Pollock, and Cody Bellinger. However, this group underperformed expectations by a wide margin this summer and were only slightly better than mediocre at the plate for the majority of the campaign. Still, this offense started to come alive over the final month of the regular season—ranking seventh in OPS and third in ISO after September 1. Inconsistency remains an issue, as the group was shutout twice in the division series against the San Francisco Giants, but also had two games in which they scored seven or more runs. This is still a collection of talented hitters capable of generating a number of run-scoring opportunities, but they have become an unpredictable option for bettors. Against a tough lefty this evening, run-scoring opportunities could be few and far between.
After a hard-fought opening round against the Giants, the Dodgers bullpen is less rested than they would like for it to be heading into the NLCS. A bullpen game to start the series against Atlanta is a bold decision, considering the fatigue implications it could have if this series lasts six or seven games. Nobody in the Los Angeles relief unit has thrown more than 22 pitches in the last three days, so everyone should be available for Roberts to deploy as needed in Game 1.
Atlanta Braves (-104)
In 28 starts for the Braves this year, Fried posted a 3.04 ERA, 3.49 xERA, and a 3.31 FIP. However, even those excellent numbers insufficiently describe how great Fried was in 2021. After dealing with a groin injury early in the year, Fried returned from the injured list at the beginning of May and delivered a 2.44 ERA and a 3.09 FIP across his last 25 outings. In his last 12 trips to the mound during the regular season, Fried delivered 12 quality starts, including a 1.56 ERA and a 2.65 FIP. In his only start during the division series, Fried was outstanding, holding the Milwaukee Brewers scoreless across six innings of work. Bettors should expect another strong outing from Fried on Saturday.
Against right-handed pitching this year, Atlanta ranked sixth in OPS, fourth in ISO, 13th in walk rate, and 23rd in strikeout percentage. Their proclivity for striking-out makes them overly-reliant on hitting home runs to generate offense. This is especially true in matchups against pitchers, such as those in the Dodgers bullpen, that generate a lot of swings-and-misses. The Braves are good enough to put runs on the board in this one, but they are going to struggle to blow this game open against a revolving door of elite arms in the Los Angeles bullpen.
Manager Brian Snitker does not trust many arms in his relief corps, evident by his extreme reliance on Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, and Will Smith in the division series. Having not played in a game since Wednesday, these talented arms at the back-end of this bullpen are rested and available tonight if needed to protect a late lead. Los Angeles is going to struggle to score runs in the latter frames if Stinker once again relies heavily on his three best relievers.
Game 1 Pick
If Atlanta hopes to stay competitive in this series, tonight is a must-win game for them. In Game 2, 3, and 4, they are likely to see Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler, and Julio Urias. The off-day for travel in between Game 2 and 3 makes it likely that this will be Atlanta’s only opportunity to see extended innings against Gonsolin, who has not pitched since September 30. Fried has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball since the middle of May. Expect him to have another strong outing and for the Braves offense to do just enough to emerge victorious tonight.
PICK: Braves ML (-104)
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