Notre Dame vs. Duke Odds, Prediction & Prop Pick
Notre Dame vs. Duke Odds
| Notre Dame Odds | -5.5 |
| Duke Odds | +5.5 |
| Over/Under | 52.5 |
| Date | Sat, Sep. 30 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. |
| TV | ABC |
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup and some college football betting tips as we try to find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
College football fans have plenty of exciting action on tap for Saturday’s Week 5 slate, but arguably no game is more highly-anticipated than tonight’s affair between #11 Notre Dame and #17 Duke. Notre Dame enters play 4-1, with their only loss being a last-second heartbreaker against Ohio State. Duke is an unblemished 4-0 after wins against Clemons, Lafayette, Northwestern, and Connecticut.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced Notre Dame as 5.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 52.5 points.
In our Notre Dame vs. Duke betting preview, we break down the rosters for both teams, make a prediction for the game, deliver a free betting pick and a PrizePicks lean.
Notre Dame
What to expect from Sam Hartman
In Week 4 against Ohio State, Sam Hartman had his worst game of the season, throwing for only 175 passing yards and completing only 17-of-25 pass attempts. However, his struggles were part of a larger emerging theme – that Hartman struggles mightily when under pressure. According to PFF, Hartman owns a 12-to-0 touchdown to interception ratio from a clean pocket this fall, and has completed 74.5% of such passes for 11.6 yards per attempt. He has completed only 47.8% of his pass attempts for 6.5 yards per attempt and two touchdowns when under duress.
Fortunately for Hartman and the Notre Dame offense, they have a much easier matchup in Week 5 against a pedestrian Duke pass rush. Expect Hartman’s struggles against Ohio State to be short-lived, and for him to bounce-back in a big way in this spot.
Notre Dame defense looking to continue early season dominance
Through five games this fall, Notre Dame’s defense has allowed more than 17 points only once – on the road in Week 3 in a 45-24 victory over NC State. In that contest, NC State scored 17 of those 24 points in the second half against a relaxed Notre Dame defense that was simply looking to eat the clock.
Tonight, Notre Dame has arguably their toughest test of the season to date, considering Duke’s efficient offense, regardless of pressure on the quarterback. Defending the middle of the field and taking away the short game will be keys to victory for this unit on Saturday.
Duke
Riley Leonard off to strong start in 2023
Entering play on Saturday, Riley Leonard owns a 66.7% completion rate and has yet to throw an interception. He is averaging only 8.4 yards per attempt from a clean pocket and only 5.7 yards per attempt when under pressure, but he has avoided tight windows and put together a strong body of work through the first month of the season. Leonard’s primary talent is his dual-threat ability, evident by his 238 rushing yards and four scores on the ground through four games. Against Clemson, Leonard had 98 rushing yards and a score with his legs. Expect him to be aggressive as a runner once again in this spot against a tough defense.
Can Duke’s defense create chaos on Saturday?
Last year, Duke’s defense had the second-best turnover margin in the nation, finishing +16 for the year. In football, a turnover margin that high is typically unsustainable year-over-year, and more often than not leads to significant regression the following season.
In addition to general systems pointing to regression for Duke’s defense, this unit also lost their most impactful defensive player from the 2022 campaign, with Shaka Heyward gone. The secondary unit lost safety Darius Joiner, who led the defense in tackles last fall, and Datrone Young, who had seven pass break-ups last season. Duke is likely to have a tough time slowing down a strong Notre Dame offense on Saturday.
Notre Dame vs. Duke – Picks & Predictions
In their first four games of the season, Notre Dame looked like a legitimate national title contender, outscoring their opponents 184-47. If not for a narrow loss to Ohio State, Notre Dame would likely be a heavier favorite in this contest against a Duke team that is likely overrated at this point in the season. Duke won their season opener in an ostensibly convincing fashion, 28-7 against Clemson. However, Clemson actually out-gained Duke 422-374 in that game, but suffered from three turnovers. Notre Dame is the more talented team in this matchup and should find a way to win – it would not be surprising if they win convincingly.
PICK: Notre Dame -5.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Free PrizePicks Prediction
Sam Hartman More Than 246.5 Pass Yards (Combo), PrizePicks
Prior to last weekend against Ohio State, Sam Hartman had eclipsed this market number in all three games played that finished with less than a 50-point margin of victory. Ohio State was able to get pressure on Hartman in a way that Duke simply is not built to do. Throwing from a clean pocket, Hartman should find success through the air, making him an appealing option at such a low market number here.
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