Notre Dame vs. Louisville Odds, Prediction & Prop Pick

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2023-10-07 18:08:16

Notre Dame vs. Louisville Odds

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup and some college football betting tips as we try to find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

College football fans have plenty of exciting action on tap for Saturday’s Week 6 slate, including a highly-anticipated matchup between #10 Notre Dame and #25 Louisville at 7:37 p.m. ET. Notre Dame enters play with only one loss, to the Buckeyes, and still has their national title hopes alive. Louisville is an unblemished 5-0 and looking to make a statement against one of the best teams in he nation.

Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced Notre Dame as 5.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 52.5 points.

In our Notre Dame vs. Louisville betting preview, we break down the rosters for both teams, make a prediction for the game, deliver a free betting pick and a PrizePicks lean.

Notre Dame

What to expect from Sam Hartman

Following an exceptional start to the 2023 campaign, Sam Hartman has posted back-to-back lackluster performances for Notre Dame against Ohio State and Duke. Against Ohio State, Hartman was 14-of-18 from a clean pocket, but only 3-for-7 when under pressure, per PFF. In Week 5 against Duke, Hartman was 10-of-15 from a clean pocket, but only 5-of-16 when under pressure. Hartman’s struggles under pressure have continued to hold strong on a week-to-week basis this fall, which makes him difficult to trust against teams that have a strong pass rush.

According to PFF, Louisville ranks 14th out of 133 schools in defensive pass rush grade this season. In five games, they have generated 106 total pressures and have tallied multiple sacks in back-to-back weeks. Hartman and the Notre Dame offense are likely to struggle for the third consecutive week this evening.

Notre Dame defense looking to continue early season dominance

Through six games this fall, Notre Dame’s defense has allowed more than 17 points only once – on the road in Week 3 in a 45-24 victory over NC State. In that contest, NC State scored 17 of those 24 points in the second half against a relaxed Notre Dame defense that was simply looking to eat the clock.

Last weekend, this unit faced their toughest test of the season against Duke, but still allowed only 14 points. They held Riley Leonard to only 134 passing yards and forced two turnovers. Notre Dame’s elite defense figures to be on full display once again in Week 6 against Louisville – a team that scored only 13 points last week against NC State.

Louisville

Can Jack Plummer step up on the big stage?

Jack Plummer leads a 5-0 Louisville offense into this marquee matchup on Saturday, but the offense has not been consistently excellent this fall. Though Plummer’s season-long statistics look good, he has an underwhelming 6-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio outside of a 56-point performance against Boston College, which was Boston College’s first road game of the year. Plummer has been strong when kept clean this season, with a 10-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 11.9 yards per attempt. However, he has a 1-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio under pressure and is averaging only 6.1 yards per attempt. Notre Dame has one of the better pass rushes in the country, which could make life difficult for this offense on Saturday night.

Can Louisville’s defense do enough to pull an upset?

Following an unexpected shootout in the season opener against Georgia Tech, Louisville’s defense has been magnificent. In Week 2, they pitched a shutout. In Week 3, they held Indiana to 14 points. The following week, Boston College scored 28 points, but the majority of the damage was done after the game was well out of reach. Last weekend, Louisville’s defense helped preserve the team’s perfect season, holding NC State to 10 points in a nail-biter, three-point victory.

If this unit can continue getting pressure at a high rate, they should be able to make life difficult for Sam Hartman and the Notre Dame offense. Entering the year, this defense had eight returning starters, giving them both experience and talent on their side in this high-stakes affair. The biggest concern for this group is how the linebackers will perform in the middle of the field.

Notre Dame vs. Louisville – Picks & Predictions

Nothing is ever a lock, but the under is an extremely strong look in tonight’s contest between Notre Dame and Louisville. Entering play on Saturday, Notre Dame ranks 116th out of 133 schools in pace. Louisville ranks 96th in pace through their first five games. Both of these starting quarterbacks have struggled mightily under pressure this fall and have to contend with strong opposing pass rushes tonight. It is difficult to see where 54 points could possibly come from in this matchup outside of high-variance special teams plays or defensive scores.

PICK: Under 53.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)

Free PrizePicks Prediction

Sam Hartman Less Than 239.5 Pass Yards, PrizePicks

Sam Hartman has been borderline elite from a clean pocket in 2023, but he is unlikely to have a clean pocket very often this evening against a strong Louisville pass rush. Hartman has easily had fewer passing yards than this market number in back-to-back weeks, making this a particularly poor number for this Week 6 contest. Do not be surprised if he struggles tonight.

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