Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Player Props: Best Best for Game 4
What kind of performances can we expect on Friday from Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jokic, and Jamal Murray? Follow along as our NBA betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NBA prop bets for today — Friday, June 9, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NBA player props, at ScoresandOdds.
On Friday, the Miami Heat will host the Denver Nuggets for Game 4 of the NBA Finals, with Miami looking to avoid a dreaded 3-1 deficit before heading back to Colorado for Game 5. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. EST on ABC.
In three games to begin the Finals, Denver has been dominant on the boards and overall looked like the far better team. As a result, the market is expecting Denver to come away with a victory tonight, pricing them as 3.5-point favorites on the spread. The over/under is set at 211 points.
We swept our recommendations in Game 3 to improve to 96-86-1 on player prop recommendations to begin these NBA Playoffs. For those who would prefer to attack the player prop market rather than a side or total, we have three leans below for tonight’s action!
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Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Player Prop Bets
- Jimmy Butler u27.5 points
- Nikola Jokic o12.5 rebounds
- Jamal Murray more than 8.0 assists
Jimmy Butler u27.5 points (-115), BetMGM
In Game 3, we took the over on the points prop for Jimmy Butler, citing the fact that he averaged 24.2 points per game at home compared to 21.6 points per game on the road during the regular season. We cashed at that market number, but a subsequent market increase to over/under 27.5 points ahead of tip-off in Game 4 has us leaning back toward the under. Butler had 28 points in Game 3, but it took him 24 shot attempts and he only managed six free throw attempts. Denver has played exceptional defense to begin this series and the slow pace of play by both teams makes an under in this spot far more likely than an over.
Nikola Jokic o12.5 rebounds (-125), BetMGM
In both Game 1 and Game 2, Nikola Jokic had 20 rebound chances. Yet, he had only 10 and 11 actual rebounds in those two contests. Ahead of tip-off in Game 3, we mentioned that positive regression in terms of actual rebounds was coming – commenting that Jokic was converting 59.1% of his rebound chances into actual rebounds during the postseason. On Wednesday, Jokic ended with 20 actual rebounds, nearly doubling his pre-game market number for his rebound prop. Tonight, bettors should expect Jokic to continue dominating the glass against an undersized Miami frontcourt – take the over again.
NBA PrizePicks Prediction
Jamal Murray more than 8.0 assists, PrizePicks
Jamal Murray had 17 potential assists in the series opener, followed by 21 potential assists in Game 2. In Game 3, Murray had another 16 potential assists. Simply, Murray’s volume in the assists department is more than enough to continue flirting with double-doubles. The market continues to be slow to adjust here, leaving plenty of opportunity for those who use sportsbooks or DFS sites such as PrizePicks. Run it back here for Game 4.
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