Nuggets vs. Suns Odds, Preview, Prediction: Will Phoenix Cover the Spread?
Nuggets vs. Suns Odds
| Nuggets Odds | +6 |
| Warriors Odds | -6 |
| Over/Under | 223 |
| Date | Wednesday, Oct. 20 |
| Time | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
On Wednesday evening, the Denver Nuggets and the Phoenix Suns will battle at the Footprint Center, each playing their first game of the 2020-2021 NBA season. Last year, Denver was eliminated in the second round of the postseason by Phoenix, getting swept in four games. Phoenix made it all the way until the NBA Finals, where they lost to the Milwaukee Bucks. Oddsmakers anticipate a tightly-contested affair between these two teams this evening, pricing the Suns as six-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a closer look at the matchup between the two teams and see where NBA bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this late game in Los Angeles.
Denver Nuggets Preview
Unquestionably, the biggest storyline surrounding the Nuggets entering the new campaign is that they will be without their second-best player, Jamal Murray for the foreseeable future. After averaging 21.2 points per game last season, Denver will turn to a combination of Monte Morris, Will Barton, Facundo Campazzo, and Austin Rivers in the backcourt to try to replace Murray’s scoring contributions. The Nuggets have one of the best frontcourts in the NBA with reigning Most Valuable Player Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr. all being supremely talented options. Still, the lack of talent in the backcourt could hurt a Denver offense that ranked sixth in offensive efficiency last year.
The Nuggets ranked 11th in defensive efficiency during the 2020-2021 regular season, but this group was better defensively than their season long numbers indicate. The Nuggets were atrocious to begin the year on the defensive side of the ball, but ranked eighth in defensive efficiency over their final 15 games and should be able to carry those improvements into the new season.
Phoenix Suns Preview
It might be surprising to some bettors to see Phoenix favored by six points on Wednesday night, but the Suns covered this spread in each of their four postseason games against the Nuggets. Last year, Phoenix had one of the deepest offensive attacks in the NBA with eight players who averaged at least 8.4 points per game. Devin Booker is the unquestioned first option for this unit after averaging 25.6 points per contest. Chris Paul is coming off an outstanding season during which he averaged 16.4 points and 8.9 assists. Deandre Ayton made news earlier this week after failing to reach an agreement on a contract extension with the Suns. He could be poised to build on a breakout 2020-2021 year.
Phoenix ranked sixth in defensive efficiency last season, but they struggled mightily down the stretch of the regular season, ranking 26th over their final 15 games. In the postseason, Phoenix was inconsistent, at times looking like a defensive fortress, but at other times appearing incapable of stopping anyone. Head Coach Monty Williams will undoubtedly attempt to get his team to lock-in on this end of the floor this winter as they look to build a team capable of making another deep playoff run.
Pick and Prediction
In their conference semifinals series last year, the Nuggets and Suns game totals hit 227, 221, 218, and 243, respectively. The 227 average on the total is skewed slightly by the higher-scoring affair in Game 4. I have this game priced at 222.5, leaving little value on the current market price of 223.
Instead, bettors should turn their attention to the spread in this one. Phoenix is completely healthy and likely eager to get back in the win column after losing four consecutive games in the Finals to the Milwaukee Bucks. The Suns have covered six points in each of their last three wins overall dating back to last year, and they covered six points in each game of their playoff series against Denver. Bet on the team that is healthy and playing at home in this one.
PICKS: Phoenix -6 (-110)
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