Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors, Prediction, & Pick
Nuggets vs. Warriors Odds
| Nuggets Odds | -3.5 |
| Warriors Odds | +3.5 |
| Over/Under | 235 |
| Date | Thu, Jan. 4 |
| Time | 10:00 p.m. |
| TV | TNT |
Thursday’s TNT double-header will conclude with a marquee matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors. This evening, Nikola Jokic and Stephen Curry will go head-to-head for the second time in less than two weeks, with the Nuggets earning a 120-114 win on Christmas Day.
Ahead of tip off this evening, the Nuggets are favored by 3 points on the spread. The total is set at over/under 235 points.
Below, we break down the matchup for both teams and offer a free pick for the betting community!
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Denver Nuggets
Nuggets looking to improve travel splits
Though the Nuggets are the defending NBA champions and they own the 3rd-best record in the Western Conference again this season, they are far less intimidating of a team on the road than they are at home.
Playing in front of their home fans, the Nuggets are 14-3 and have outscored their opponents by 10.9 points per 100 possessions. On the road, Denver is 10-8 and has outscored their opponents by only 0.8 points per 100 possessions.
Playing on the road on 2 days of rest this year, the Nuggets are 2-1 SU, but they rank 21st in spread differential per Cleaning the Glass.
What to expect from Nikola Jokic
Nikola Jokic has historically performed well against the Warriors, scoring 26+ points in three of their last four meetings, with at least 12 rebounds in each of those games as well. This season, Jokic has scored at least 25 points in three of the five games in which he has 2 days of rest leading up to tip off. In only one of those games has he recorded fewer than 10 rebounds.
Facing an undersized Golden State frontcourt this evening, Jokic should have every opportunity to put together a strong performance – especially after playing only 28 minutes in his most recent contest.
Golden State Warriors
Playing without Draymond Green
Since Draymond Green last played on December 12, the Warriors are 6-4 SU and rank 15th in Net Rating, outscoring their opponents by 1.1 points per 100 possessions. During that stretch, they rank 9th in offensive rating and 21st in defensive rating.
Though the Warriors are above .500 in their most recent run without Green in the lineup, it is worth noting that they are 1-2 against teams that rank in the top 10 in point differential this season.
Klay Thompson poised for big night
According to RotoGrinders CourtIQ, Klay Thompson (+1.3%) sees the largest increase in usage of any player on the Warriors roster this season when Green is out of the lineup. In those situations, Thompson is averaging 21.7 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per 36 minutes.
In 18 games without Green this year, Thompson has scored 15+ points 14 times and 20+ points eight different times. Five of those 20-point performances have come at home. Thompson could be a difference-maker for the Dubs this evening.
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction
Under 235, -110 FanDuel
Though it’s a small sample size, the Nuggets have performed admirably defensively when playing on 2 days of rest on the road this season – ranking 9th in defensive rating. If expanding the parameters to include all games, Denver ranks 3rd in defensive rating overall when playing on 2 days of rest this year.
The Warriors rank 9th in offensive rating since Draymond Green last played, but that number is likely inflated due to a weak schedule. During that stretch, Golden State ranks only 11th in eFG%, 14th in TS%, and 15th in turnover rate. Facing a tougher opponent on Thursday, they are likely to experience difficulties getting open looks.
The math favors the under in this prime time affair between the Nuggets and Warriors.
Image Credit: Getty Images