Packers vs. Lions Showdown NFL DFS Lineup Advice for DraftKings & FanDuel
We’re ready for another week of football, and Week 4 of the NFL kicks off with a divisional rivalry matchup between the Lions and Packers. Detroit is favored by 2.5 points on the road here with the game total currently at 45.5, and both teams are returning fantasy-relevant players on offense. Detroit welcomes back David Montgomery who sat Week 3 with a thigh injury, while Green Bay should have Aaron Jones (hamstring) for the first time since Week 1, and Christian Watson (also hamstring) for the first time this season.
Both Detroit and Green Bay have playoff aspirations, and with both teams starting 2-1 and the other two teams in their division (Minnesota and Chicago) winless at 0-3, this game could have a big impact on the divisional race for a Week 4 matchup. There are large single-game contests out there for this matchup, and I’m here with some quick lineup advice on how to get an edge on the field in our FanDuel and DraftKings single-game DFS entries.
Packers vs. Lions Showdown DFS Lineup Advice
How I Plan to Beat the Field
The recent history for both of these teams is more important to consider in this game than most, with the Lions returning to a winning record last season for the first time since 2017, while the Packers are turning their franchise over to QB Jordan Love after more than a decade with Aaron Rodgers (which followed more than a decade of Brett Favre). I expect these factors and the Lions being favored by 2.5 points to lead to increased ownership on Detroit players, and I have some interest in being on the other side of that ownership.
Among QBs who have started the first three games of the season, Jordan Love is currently the 4th-highest scorer in average fantasy points per game, just below Tua Tagovailoa and just above Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. While reading into trends after just three weeks can be difficult, there is every reason to believe that as a former first-round pick who has had the benefit of studying from the sidelines for two seasons, Love could be underrated and under-owned in this matchup. With the return of two of his biggest offensive weapons in Aaron Jones and Christian Watson, his rushing ability, and the home field advantage, I’m interested in being over the field on Jordan Love in this spot and pairing him with at least one Green Bay teammate.
This is also a game that doesn’t set up particularly well for Detroit, with Green Bay ranking as a top-10 defense in passing yards both last season and over the first three weeks this season. Detroit’s favorite weapon is Amon-Ra St. Brown, but with a stationary QB and possibly splitting work between two RBs with David Montgomery’s return, fantasy production on the Detroit side could be hard to come by than it first appears.
Single-Game Rule I’m Willing to Break
While we’ll want to consider the scoring on each site and set some rules in LineupHQ if we’re building multiple lineups, setting our rules too strictly can prevent us from getting to winning lineups. Each week, I’ll aim to hit on “rules that can be broken” for our lineups.
This week, I’ll be going against one of my mostly tightly-held rules, and play more pass-catching RBs on FanDuel than DraftKings. The injury situations this week led to some interesting salary differences between the two sites, and this is especially prominent at the running back position. Jahmyr Gibbs is $500 cheaper than David Montgomery on FanDuel, while on DraftKings Gibbs is a whopping $2800 more expensive than Montgomery. Gibbs will have a very difficult time cracking the optimal lineup on DraftKings at that salary, but even splitting the work with Montgomery, he is a more appealing option on FanDuel, where he is priced more appropriately compared to the rest of the skill position players in this game.
Similarly, I wouldn’t be surprised if I get to a bit more Aaron Jones on FanDuel than DraftKings. Jones is the second-most expensive player on DraftKings after Amon-Ra St. Brown, sitting $600 more expensive than Jared Goff and $1000 more expensive than Jordan Love. Jones is only the fourth-most expensive player on FanDuel, and despite losing a half-point per reception compared to DraftKings, both of these RBs is much easier to fit in on a FanDuel roster.
DraftKings Strategy
The first key difference between DraftKings versus FanDuel is the salary multiplier for the Captain position. It’s not just that a Captain’s fantasy points get the 1.5x multiplier, but his salary counts 1.5x against our cap as well. The next important consideration is the difference in the scoring rules. DraftKings gives a full point per reception instead of a half point on FanDuel, making receivers and pass-catching running backs ideal for the DraftKings format.
I touched on some site-specific strategy in the section above, but another pricing difference that caught my attention is the discounted price tags for David Montgomery ($6800) and Jayden Reed ($5600) on DraftKings. Montgomery’s scoring isn’t ideal for the DraftKings format, but he did catch at least 3 passes in 8 games last season, and at $6,800 he has a lot of leeway to land on the winning lineup if he finds the end zone while putting up a decent yardage total. Reed is simply priced too low for a second-round rookie who received 20 targets over his first three games, and it appears DraftKings may be over-correcting for the return of Christian Watson – who may not even get a full workload of snaps.
One final DraftKings-specific note that may have a bigger impact than it seems, our kickers this week seem to be getting a bump in pricing. While the kickers in previous weeks (and years) have generally sat in the $3800 to $4400 price range, both Riley Patterson ($4800) and Anders Carlson ($4600) are more expensive this week. This could make the now-cheaper defensive units of both the Lions ($4000) and Packers ($3600) more appealing this week compared to past showdown slates.
FanDuel Strategy
The flip side to the DraftKings scoring is the half-point awarded for receptions on FanDuel and no salary multiplier in the MVP position. This can make it very difficult to get away from the highest projected player at the MVP spot but makes it critical to have some intelligent differentiation in the AnyFLEX spots.
The salary lists have more differences between the sites than usual for tonight’s contest, and in addition to Jahmyr Gibbs who I touched on above, Luke Musgrave stands out as a value on FanDuel. Musgrave is curiously priced below each of the kickers and defenses on FanDuel, while on DK, he is priced just below David Montgomery. Jordan Love is also a bit more difficult to get to on FanDuel as the most expensive player on the salary list while he is just the 4th-most expensive player on DraftKings. I love the idea of being overweight the Green Bay QB, but I will have some rosters that skip over him completely for my multi-entry lineup set.
Good luck to everyone tonight, and enjoy – RotoGrinders has been on a great string of million dollar wins, and hopefully someone pulls down a million dollars again tonight!