Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Packers vs. Giants Odds
| Packers Odds | -6 |
| Giants Odds | +6 |
| Over/Under | 37 |
| Date | Mon, Dec. 11 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ABC |
Week 14 of the NFL regular season will conclude with a Monday Night Football double-header, with both games airing concurrently at 8:15 p.m. ET. One of those matchups features Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans against Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. Entering play, Tennessee is winless in six road games and Miami is undefeated in five home contests at Hard Rock Stadium.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Dolphins as 14-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 45 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love leading Packers offense to new heights
Since Week 9, Jordan Love has been among the best quarterbacks in the NFL, ranking 4th in EPA/play, 6th in success rate, and 8th in air yards. Love has excelled from both a clean pocket and when under pressure, ranking in the top-11 in passer rating in both contexts across his last five games.
Love and his newfound ability to deliver the ball accurately downfield have elevated Green Bay’s offense to new heights during the last month of action, but it remains to be seen how much Love sees his production fall off with Christian Watson out of the lineup. Watson had been a frequent target of Love in recent weeks, with at least seven targets in three of his last four games. The duo connected for four touchdowns in their last three games together, but Watson will be on the sidelines this evening.
Packers defense getting healthy at the right time
Ahead of kickoff in Week 13, Green Bay returned safeties Darnell Savage and Rudy Ford to the field, with the duo playing together for the first time since Week 7.
Ford played only seven snaps in the win but was removed from the team’s injury report altogether this week and figures to see an expanded role against the Giants. He ranks 19th out of 93 safeties in coverage grade this year, per PFF. Savage played 62 snaps in his return to the field last Sunday and looked good in the process. Savage ranks 17th out of 84 safeties as a run defender in 2023, making his presence a major boon to the Green Bay defense.
From Week 1 to Week 7, with Savage on the field, Green Bay’s defense ranked 13th in dropback EPA/play. This secondary unit is well-positioned for a strong showing tonight against an inferior Giants passing attack.
New York Giants
Tommy DeVito ready for the bright lights?
Since Week 9, Tommy DeVito has looked every bit like a third string quarterback – ranking 28th out of 28 qualified signal callers in EPA/play, 27th in success rate, and 19th in air yards per attempt. Only Aidan O’Connell and Will Levis have a higher turnover-worthy play rate from a clean pocket in that stretch among quarterbacks with at least 70 such dropbacks.
Nevertheless, DeVito and the Giants have won two of their last four games, raising the question: Can they compete again on Monday Night Football? The larger body of work says no, with the Giants offense ranking 31st in EPA/play and 31st in success rate across their last four contests. This group offers very little upside in terms of passing or running the football, which is reflected in the fact that they are 6-point underdogs this evening.
Dexter Lawrence listed as QUESTIONABLE
Defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence is officially listed as questionable ahead of kickoff this evening, hoping to make his first appearance since Week 11. According to PFF, Lawrence ranks 2nd out of 133 players at his position in run defense this year and 1st as a pass rusher. He has only four sacks this fall, but he is responsible for 20 more pressures than any other member of the New York defense despite the fact that he has not played in multiple weeks. Earlier today, ESPN reported that Lawrence is likely to play, which is noteworthy news for this unit.
From Week 1 to Week 11, with Lawrence on the field, New York’s defense ranked 23rd in EPA/play and 27th in success rate.
Packers vs. Giants – Picks & Predictions
New York scored 31 points in a victory over Washington in Week 11, but we have discussed why that result is likely to be an extreme outlier in the Tommy DeVito era of Giants football. In his other three games as the team’s starting quarterback, the Giants have scored 6 points, 17 points, and 10 points. Though New York’s defense is a concern, the return of defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence, coupled with the absence of running back Aaron Jones and wide receiver Christian Watson for the Packers makes it likely that both of these teams struggle offensively on Monday. The under is a worthwhile risk here.
PICK: Under 37 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
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