Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Odds, Prediction & Pick
Lions vs. Packers Odds
| Lions Odds | -2 |
| Packers Odds | +2 |
| Over/Under | 45 |
| Date | Thu, Sep. 28 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | Prime Video |
Week 4 of the NFL regular season will begin tonight with an NFC North showdown between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Both teams enter play at 2-1, with the winner of tonight’s contest set to take sole possession of first place in the division.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Lions as 2-point favorites on the spread in this matchup. The total for this contest is set at over/under 45.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Detroit Lions
Halapoulivaati Vaitai ruled out
According to Tim Twentyman, right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai did not practice at all this week and was ruled out for Thursday Night Football, following the release of the final practice report ahead of kickoff. Vaitai is one of the league’s premier offensive lineman, and has not allowed a single pressure on 61 pass-blocking snaps this year, per PFF. Fortunately for the Lions, Graham Glasgow, who played in place of Vaitai in Week 3, has shown himself to be capable of holding down the fort in the interim. Glasgow did not allow a single pressure in 37 pass-blocking snaps last weekend, though he did struggle as a run blocker.
Assuming Glasgow can perform at a high level again this evening, Jared Goff and company should be able to move the football against a Green Bay defense that has been mediocre so far this season, ranking 14th in EPA/play.
Next man up for Detroit defense
Similar to the offensive line, Detroit is operating at less than 100 percent health on the defensive side of the ball as well right now. However, also consistent with the offensive line, the defense has played well even in the absence of key players, such as safeties C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Kerby Joseph.
Joseph was listed as a limited participant in Wednesday’s walkthrough, which means that there is still a chance he can suit up for this important divisional matchup. Even if he does not suit up, the secondary unit appears to be in good shape, one week after limiting the Atlanta Falcons to six points and 201 passing yards. As long as this unit is able to get pressure on Jordan Love tonight, they should have success in getting off of the field.
Green Bay Packers
Offensive line missing key pieces for Thursday Night Football
According to The Athletic, starting left tackle David Bakhtiari and starting left guard Elgton Jenkins have both been ruled out for tonight’s matchup against the Lions. Bakhtiari and Jenkins have combined to allow only one pressure on 71 pass-blocking snaps in 2023. Backups Rasheed Walker and Royce Newman combined to allow five pressures in Week 3 alone, facing the New Orleans Saints. If the left side of the offensive line struggles in protection again on Thursday, it could make life extremely difficult for Jordan Love.
Love has been pressured on 23 of his 107 dropbacks so far this fall, and the results have been extremely different than when he is kept clean. Per PFF, Love has completed 58.8% of his pass attempts, averaged 7.2 yards per attempt, and thrown six touchdowns without an interception from a clean pocket. He has completed only 25.0% of his pass attempts, averaged 4.9 yards per attempt, and has a 1-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio when under pressure.
Defensive injuries piling up for Packers
Heading into tonight’s action, the Green Bay defense will be without linebacker De’Vondre Campbell. They have also listed cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Carrington Valentine as questionable due to injury. The Packers’ secondary unit had success in Week 3, despite suffering from the injury bug. However, they also had the benefit of playing backup quarterback Jameis Winston for nearly the entire second half – after which they had allowed 17 points in the first half.
Tonight, this defense will face a tougher test with Jared Goff and company coming to town. The Lions have speed, athleticism, and the ability to attack the seam downfield in a way that New Orleans simply does not. Green Bay could struggle in this matchup.
Lions vs. Packers – Picks & Predictions
The Detroit Lions will be without some key contributors on both sides of the ball on Thursday, but this roster has quality depth and has already proven this season that they are capable of performing at a high level when missing players. The Green Bay Packers will be without two of their starting offensive lineman, which is a major concern against a Detroit pass rush that figures to make life difficult for Jordan Love. The Lions are the deeper football team, which should pay dividends this evening on a short week with limited practice time. The road favorites should be able to get the job done here.
PICK: Lions -2 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)