Padres vs. Dodgers Preview: Odds, Picks & Prediction — Tuesday, Sept. 28
Padres vs. Dodgers Odds
| Padres Odds | +164 |
| Dodgers Odds | -196 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Date | Tuesday, Sept. 28* |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
On Tuesday evening, the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers will begin a three game set at Dodger Stadium. Earlier this summer, many pundits had this game circled on the schedule, thinking that the National League West division might be decided in this series. However, the Padres have completely collapsed in the second half of the campaign and have already been eliminated from the postseason. The Dodgers are surprisingly in a dog fight with the San Francisco Giants for the division crown, trailing them by two games heading into the final week of the regular season. Tonight, San Diego will send Yu Darvish to the hill, who will be opposed by Walker Buehler. Oddsmakers are confidently projecting Los Angeles to emerge victorious, pricing the Dodgers as -196 home favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Padres Preview
In his first season with the Friars, Darvish has been underwhelming with a 4.21 ERA, 3.29 xERA, and a 3.91 FIP. He has been especially bad since the beginning of July—posting a 6.78 ERA and a 5.15 FIP in his last 13 trips to the mound. In that span, his ERA is 69 percent worse than the league average pitcher. Darvish has allowed an abundance of hard-contact, evident by a 12.8 percent barrel-rate, and has struggled to work ahead in the count, only throwing 58.7 percent of first-pitch strikes. Life will not get any easier against a dangerous Los Angeles lineup on Tuesday.
Since the All-Star break, it is hard to find a team that has hit the ball worse than the Padres. Since the trade deadline, this lineup ranks 25th in OPS and 26th in ISO. “(player-popup #fernando-tatis)Fernando Tatis Jr has opened the door in the National League Most Valuable Player race, allowing our “+3000 long-shot Bryce Harper to emerge as the frontrunner for the award. Tatis has had a very pedestrian second half of the year with only a .283 batting average, 13 home runs, and 35 RBI since July 16.
More than anything, Manager Jayce Tingler is to blame for San Diego’s collapse. His insistence on going with multiple bullpen games per week overtaxed his relievers, turning one of the best bullpen units in baseball into one of the worst. After a stellar first half, the Padres relief corps ranks 19th in bullpen FIP since the All-Star break. Having an off-day on Monday is not likely to be enough rest to recharge a group of arms that has been completely burnt out for the better part of a month.
Dodgers Preview
Buehler is unlikely to win the National League Cy Young award this year, but he has firmly cemented his status as one of the best young pitchers in the league with a dominant 2021 campaign. Through 31 turns in the rotation, he owns a 2.58 ERA, 3.16 xERA, and a 3.25 FIP. On the season, he ranks in the 60th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, strikeout and walk percentage, and chase rate. Buehler has been even better in his last 14 starts with a 2.68 ERA and a 2.91 FIP. He will look to continue building on a dominant year when he takes on an anemic San Diego offense this evening.
It is hard to imagine that a lineup featuring Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Will Smith, Justin turner, and A.J. Pollock could be mediocre, but that is exactly what the Dodgers have been since mid-July. Los Angeles ranks only 16th in OPS and 11th in ISO since the All-Star break. Still, this is a group that should be able to generate plenty of run-scoring opportunities against Darvish, who has struggled mightily down the stretch.
Fortunately for Dodgers fans, Los Angeles can afford to have a mediocre offense thanks to their elite pitching staff. On top of having arguably the best starting rotation in the league, Los Angeles also has the best relief unit in baseball—ranking first in bullpen FIP since the All-Star break. It is going to be difficult for San Diego to score runs on Tuesday.
Padres vs. Dodgers Picks
Entering play, the Padres have lost 13 of their last 16 games. The Dodgers have won 12 of their last 15 contests. In tonight’s matchup, Los Angeles has the better starting pitcher, the better bullpen, and the better offense.
The money line is heavier than most bettors care to wager on. Instead of playing the full game run line, bet on Buehler and the Dodgers to have the lead after the first five innings at a much more reasonable price.
PICK: Dodgers -0.5, First 5 innings (-135)
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