Panama vs. Netherlands: World Baseball Classic Odds, Picks and Predictions
Panama vs. Netherlands Odds
| Panama ML | +165 |
| Netherlands ML | -195 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Wed, Mar. 8 |
| Time | 11:00 p.m. |
| TV | FS2 |
On Wednesday, Panama and Netherlands will each be playing their second pool play contest in the 2023 World Baseball Classic when they meet at the Taichung Intercontinental Baseball Stadium at 11:00 p.m. EST on FS2.
Both teams won their first game, with Panama defeating Chinese Taipei and Netherlands taking care of business against Cuba. Tonight, Panama will hand the ball to Jaime Barria, who will be opposed by Shairon Martis.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced Netherlands as heavy -195 favorites on the moneyline, with over/under on the total set at 8.5 runs.
Panama
Off of the schneid
Prior to yesterday’s 12-5 victory over Chinese Taipei, Panama had been winless in five career World Baseball Classic contests. Before their victory, they were averaging 1.4 runs scored per game while allowing 7.2 runs per game to their opponent – making their upset win even more improbable.
Jaime Barria looks to sustain positive momentum for Panama
Last season, Jaime Barria tossed 79.1 innings for the Los Angeles Angels, posting a career-best 2.61 ERA being used primarily as a reliever. However, his expected statistics suggest that he was far more lucky than good in 2022 – benefitting from an abnormally fortunate .227 BABIP. As a result, he had a 4.11 xERA and a 4.39 FIP.
Barria has good command, but rarely misses bats. His primary strength is that he is adept at getting right-handed batters to hit the ball into the ground. Lefties had much more success getting the ball in the air against Barria in 2022, with a 48.5% fly ball rate.
Barria features a slider that he used for nearly half of his offerings, occasionally mixing in a four-seam fastball, sinker, and a changeup as well.
What to expect from the bats
Panama does not have a wealth of elite offensive talent, making it all the more surprising that they scored 12 runs in their opening game against Chinese Taipei. Jonathan Arauz had two hits and three runs-batted-in (RBI), batting in the 2-hole. Christian Bethancourt, another MLB hitter, had two hits and an RBI in the 3-hole. Overall, the team was 8-for-21 with runners-in-scoring-position, striking out only eight times in 46 plate appearances.
It is highly unlikely that this group will be able to sustain this success against better pitching, but they certainly have bettors’ attention after their performance on Wednesday.
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Netherlands
Martis gets the nod
Shairon Martis will take the ball for Netherlands to begin this contest. In 80.1 innings of work last season with two teams, he posted a 1.68 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 24.5 strikeout percentage, and a 6.6% walk-rate.
Still, Martis, a former member of the Minnesota Twins and Washington Nationals, is a volatile option tonight for this group. As recently as 2019, he played Indy ball, where he had a 6.44 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 13.2 strikeout percentage, and a 10.1% walk-rate. It remains to be seen how he fares against this level of competition in the Classic.
Left-handed hitters set up to do damage
In 2022, Barria had a lower strikeout percentage, higher walk-rate, worse opponent batting average, allowed more traffic on the basepaths, and surrendered more hard contact to left-handed batters than he did to right-handed batters.
In their opening game against Cuba, Netherlands had Jurickson Profar, Roger Bernadina, and Didi Gregorius – three left-handed batters – in the top four spots in their lineup. Josh Palacios is another left-handed batter that was slotted lower in the order in their first game of the tournament.
Left-handed hitters will have an advantage against Barria in the early portion of this contest against Barria. If Netherlands is going to have a strong day at the plate, they will need these members of their lineup to produce.
Panama vs. Netherlands – Picks & Predictions
Updating the venue statistics after yesterday’s action – in the history of the World Baseball Classic, eight games have been played at Taichung Intercontinental Baseball Stadium. In those eight contests, six games have finished with six total runs or fewer.
As a result of their blowout victory on Wednesday, Panama was able to save some of their better relief options for this matchup against Netherlands, in hope of securing an improbable 2-0 start to the tournament. Netherlands still has pitching depth available as well, and their offense faces a difficult early task against Barria if their left-handed bats do not deliver.
The under is the smart lean here.
PICK: Under 8.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Image Credit: Getty Images