Patriots vs. Bills Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Monday Night Football
NFL Week 13 concludes with a marquee matchup between two AFC East rivals, the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills. Follow along as Nick Galaida breaks down the odds, looks at the weather, and gives you his Monday Night Football pick and prediction.
Patriots vs. Bills Odds
| Patriots Odds | +3 |
| Saints Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | Under 41 |
| Date | Monday, Dec 6. |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Tonight, the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills will battle in a highly-anticipated contest at Highmark Stadium. New England has won six consecutive games, with their most recent defeat coming in overtime to the Dallas Cowboys on October 17. The Patriots’ recent surge has catapulted them to the top-seed in the AFC ahead of this evening’s kickoff. Buffalo began the fall slate with wins in four of their first five games, but they have not won back-to-back contests since Week 5. Oddsmakers are expecting that trend to come to an end in this one, pricing the Bills as a field goal favorite on the spread.
Patriots +3
New England has not just been winning games–they have been dominating their opponents over the last two months. Of New England’s last six victories, only one has come by less than 18 points. In that span, the Patriots have scored 54 points in a game against the New York Jets, and three times held their opponent to seven points or less–including holding the Atlanta Falcons scoreless.
Mac Jones has been excellent as a rookie for this offense. On the season, Jones is completing an astounding 70.3 percent of his pass attempts. In a run-heavy scheme, he has still managed to throw for the 14th most passing yards and 16 passing touchdowns. During New England’s winning streak, Jones has a sterling 9-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Patriots have one of the best offensive lines in the league, which has also enabled their running game to flourish. On Monday, bettors should expect another efficient showing from this unit, despite some weather concerns.
It is difficult to find a team that has been more dominant than the Patriots on the defensive side of the ball. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown only 14 touchdowns against 19 interceptions this season, which has resulted in a dreadful 70.6 passer rating. New England has been slightly more vulnerable on the ground, permitting 4.5 yards-per-carry, but this weakness has not impacted the scoreboard much of late. In their last six games, the Patriots have held their opponent to 13 points or less all but once. Even against a strong Buffalo offense, New England’s defense should once again have an impressive showing.
Bills -3
Josh Allen is an interesting MVP candidate as the regular season enters its final leg. Allen ranks ninth in passing yards, fourth in passing touchdowns, and sixth in QBR. However, he ranks 22nd amongst qualified signal callers in interceptions. In Buffalo’s last four trips to the field, Allen has only eight touchdowns against seven interruptions, which can partly explain why his team has only won two of those four matchups. Playing behind a mediocre offensive line has certainly not helped matters either. Devin Singletary has been strong on the ground this year, averaging 4.7 yards-per-carry, but he has failed to record more than 15 carries in any game this fall. If given a full workload, there is no guarantee that he would be able to sustain his strong per-carry numbers.
Defensively, Buffalo has been strong against pass-heavy teams, but they have struggled against strong running attacks. In Week 6, Derrick Henry ran for 143 yards and three touchdowns in a Bills loss. Two weeks ago against the Indianapolis Colts, Jonathan Taylor totaled 185 yards on the ground and four rushing touchdowns in an embarrassing loss for Buffalo. The Bills grade as one of the strongest run defenses in football, permitting only 3.9 yards-per-carry, but that is likely far more a result of a weak schedule than due to elite talent on the defensive line. Other than Jerry Hughes, there is no member of the run defense with a sustained track record of strong performance. New England could give this defense problems tonight.
Monday Night Football & Prediction
New England has been the best team in the NFL over the last two months, albeit against weaker competition. Still, their dominance against those weak opponents can only be discounted so much. Buffalo has struggled this season against teams that place strong emphasis on their running game. The Patriots are likely to win the battle at the line of scrimmage this evening. If weather impacts the passing game, the Patriots are in even better shape in this one. Take New England to cover the spread here.
PICK: Patriots +3 (-110)
Image Credit: Imagn