New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Patriots vs. Steelers Odds
| Patriots Odds | +5.5 |
| Steelers Odds | -5.5 |
| Over/Under | 30.0 |
| Date | Thu, Dec. 7 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | Prime Video |
Week 14 of the NFL regular season will begin with a marquee matchup featuring Bailey Zappe and the New England Patriots against Mitch Trubisky and the Pittsburgh Steelers! Entering play, the Patriots have lost five games in a row and are in sole possession of the worst record in the AFC. The Steelers are 7-5, but are the only team in the league this season to have a winning record and a negative point differential.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Steelers as 5.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 30 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
New England Patriots
What to expect from Bailey Zappe
Bailey Zappe made his first start of the season last weekend against the Chargers, completing 13-of-25 pass attempts for 141 yards. Among 28 quarterbacks with at least 15 plays in Week 13, Zappe ranked 27th in EPA/play, 19th in success rate, and (surprisingly) 5th in air yards per attempt.
Still, the fact that Zappe was looking to push the ball downfield does not mean he had any success on such attempts. Per PFF, Zappe is 1-for-10 on throws 20+ yards downfield this season and 38 of his 64 pass attempts have been within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Perhaps most concerning about Zappe is the fact that he has been so underwhelming in limited action this year, despite playing some of the worst pass defenses in the NFL – namely, the Chargers, which still rank 28th in passing yards allowed per play this fall, even after holding the Patriots to zero points last Sunday.
Adding insult to injury, running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been ruled out for tonight’s action. Stevenson leads the Patriots in carries (156), rushing yards (619), first downs (38), and receptions (38) this season. He is third on the team in targets (51) and fifth on the team in receiving yards (238).
New England defense stout against the run
Since linebacker Matt Judon and defensive back Christian Gonzalez last played in Week 4, the Patriots defense ranks only 18th in EPA/play, but they are 9th in success rate. They have been at their best defending the run, ranking 2nd in rush EPA/play and 2nd in rush success rate during that stretch. Opposing passing attacks have found success against New England’s secondary unit, which ranks 28th in dropback EPA/play and 27th in dropback success rate across their last eight games.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh offense hobbled heading into Week 14
Pittsburgh’s offense is decimated by injury in nearly every way imaginable heading into Thursday’s contest against New England. Starting quarterback Kenny Pickett left last weekend’s game early due to an ankle injury and will not be able to play tonight. Running back Najee Harris has played at least 31 snaps in every game this season for the Steelers, but did not practice on Wednesday and is thus more likely to sit than suit up tonight.
On the offensive line, starting center Mason Cole is questionable with a neck injury, but is trending towards playing after a limited participation in Wednesday’s practice. However, starting left guard Isaac Seumalo is legitimately questionable with a shoulder injury after not practicing at all this week. If Seumalo is unable to go, Nate Herbig is the presumptive replacement at left guard, which is a tremendous downgrade in pass protection for Mitch Trubisky, who is already not the team’s first option to be under center.
Steelers linebacker corps decimated by injury
Heading into Week 14, the Steelers have linebackers Kwon Alexander and Cole Holcomb on injured reserve, with linebacker Elandon Roberts listed as questionable to play on Thursday due to a groin injury. Alexander was one of the better coverage linebackers in the NFL prior to landing on injured reserve, and his absence has left Pittsburgh’s defense extremely vulnerable in the middle of the field against tight ends. In the last three weeks alone, Pittsburgh has allowed a combined 15 catches and 145 receiving yards to Trey McBride and David Njoku.
Patriots vs. Steelers – Picks & Predictions
Entering play on Thursday, the Patriots have held four consecutive opponents to 20 points or fewer, and each of their last three opponents have failed to eclipse 10 points. The larger issue for New England has been their offense, which has scored only 13 points total in their last three games and only 40 points total across their last four games. Each of Pittsburgh’s last three games have totaled 34 points or fewer as well, with two of those contests finishing with 26 points or fewer.
Through the first 13 weeks of the season, the Patriots rank dead last in offensive points per game and the Steelers rank 28th in offensive points per game. Tonight, the Patriots will be without their top running back and are starting a backup quarterback. The Steelers are without their starting quarterback, and they could be without their starting running back and starting left guard.
It feels incomprehensible to bet the under on a game with a total at 30 points. Yet, somehow, the data and the injury report suggest that the total for this game should be priced even lower than is currently available on the market. Defensive scores and special teams blunders are always a risk in these situations, but we are likely in store for an ugly offensive game on Thursday – the under makes sense here.
PICK: Under 30 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
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