PGA Betting Trends to Spot a Winner at The Masters
It might be a little cliche to compare Masters week to Christmas Eve, but that is exactly how it feels. Throughout the course of the year, I look forward to trips, plans with friends and family, and other sporting events, but nothing quite compares to The Masters.
With this being such a special week, I decided to put together a sports betting trends article to help spot the golfer that will be donning the green jacket on Sunday.
Before we go any further, know that trends are made to be broken and that this article is meant to be more entertaining than predictive. With that said, how great would it be if were able to identify the winner?
There are a million trends that out there this week, but many are far from predictive. For instance, I don’t care how many characters are in the name of past winners. I tried to select trends that I felt made the most sense when it comes to predicting a winner.
I will note that I will be going through these trends and crossing off names in the field as I am writing this article, so I have no idea how the results are going to turn out. I hope we can narrow down the list to a single golfer or at the very least, to a few names that could potentially win this year’s Masters.
PGA Betting Trends – The Masters 2022
- No amateur has ever won
- The oldest winner was 46 years old
- No first-timer has won since 1979
- The last 10 winners were ranked in the top 25 of the OWGR
- Only three golfers have successfully defended their Masters title
- 10 of last 11 winners made the cut at the previous Masters
- 8 of last 10 winners have played in at least three Masters
- The last 10 winners had a top 30 in one of their last two starts
- 9 of the last 10 winners had a top 10 at a major the previous two years
- The last 10 winners gained strokes around the green the three months prior to winning
- 12 of the last 13 winners were in the top 50 in driving distance the year they won
For starters, let’s group together the first five trends and start to narrow down the field. We are looking for golfers in the top 25 of the OWGR, golfers that aren’t amateurs, golfers that are too old (46 years or younger), and golfers that have played the Masters at least one time.
Right off the bat, we narrow down our list of potential winners to 23 golfers. Some of the notable names that we had to exclude were Will Zalatoris, Sam Burns, Tiger Woods, Adam Scott, and Hideki Matsuyama. I’m feeling good about the list so far, but let’s keep digging.
We are now looking for golfers that made the cut at the previous Masters and have at least three appearances at Augusta National. We are forced to make some big cuts this time around — Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Daniel Berger, Joaquin Niemann, and Abraham Ancer all failed to make this round of cuts.
The next trend is having a top 30 in one of two previous starts. Naturally, we have some more cuts to make. Louis Oosthuizen, Jordan Spieth, and Bryson DeChambeau get the axe in this round. We are now looking for golfers with a top 10 in a major sometime in the last two years. Most of the remaining candidates met this requirement with the exception of Billy Horschel, Tyrrell Hatton, and Matt Fitzpatrick.
While we are running out of trends, we are also running out of golfers. Next up, we need a golfer that has gained strokes around the green in the three months. This takes out Jon Rahm and Tony Finau, who both have excellent track records at The Masters.
Ladies and gentlemen, we are officially down to four potential winners:
- Cameron Smith
- Justin Thomas
- Xander Schauffele
- Paul Casey
We only have one trend remaining — we are looking for a golfer that is in the top 50 in driving distance this season. Unfortunately, this eliminates Cameron Smith (110th) and Paul Casey (57th).
PGA Betting Picks – The Masters 2022
Clearly, the winner of this year’s Masters will be Justin Thomas (+1500 on FanDuel Sportsbook) or Xander Schauffele (+2400 on DraftKings Sportsbook). I had already placed a wager on Schauffele prior to writing this article, so I am thrilled to see him make the final two.
Best of luck with your bets and your PGA DFS lineups this week. More importantly, enjoy the best week of golf we get all year.
Image Credit: Imagn