PGA DFS Core Plays: U.S. Open
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
The year’s third major is upon us. The golf season is so long, yet it somehow goes by way too fast. Given the iconic course and the fact that many of the world’s best come into the week in great form, this should be a U.S. Open to remember. We have plenty of storylines heading into the week. Scottie Scheffler is going for his 6th win in 9 starts, Rory McIlroy is looking to win his first major in 10 years, Collin Morikawa is looking for the third leg of his career grand slam, Bryson DeChambeau is looking for his 2nd U.S. Open win, and Brooks Koepka is never someone that we should count out in these events.
Pinehurst No. 2 is not your typical U.S. Open course. Rather than thick rough guarding the fairways and greens, this course has sandy waste areas and run-offs that are going to cause a lot of havoc for this field. The course is a Par 70 that measures 7,548 yards. There are only two par 5s, and they both measure over 580 yards. The fairways are generous, but hitting them will be paramount. If golfers do stray too far off line, they will be at the mercy of lady luck. You can draw a good or a bad lie in the sandy waste areas. Some patience will certainly be needed given the added variance of these waste areas.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the U.S. Open
The greens at Pinehurst No. 2 seem large (6,800 square feet), but they will play a lot smaller than that. Due to their dome shape and the fact that there’s no rough to stop the ball, we will see a lot of balls roll off the green (sometimes as far as 40 yards). We’ve already seen several videos on social media of golfers dropping a ball on a certain part of the green and watching it roll all the way off and back into the fairway or waste area. This places an emphasis on precise iron play. It’s worth noting that even the longest hitters in the field are going to have plenty of approach shots from 175+ yards, so proximity with long irons should play a big role.
Ultimately, I am looking for good total drivers, good long iron players, good scramblers, and good putters on bermudagrass. Experience in majors and on difficult golf courses is certainly a positive. Let’s have ourselves a week!
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PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the U.S. Open
Field Size:
- 156 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 60 and ties
Weather Forecasts
Pinehurst Resort & Country Club (Course No. 2)
- Location: Pinehurst, North Carolina
- Par 70 — 7,548 yards
- Designer: Donald Ross (1907), Coore and Crenshaw renovation (2011)
- Recent U.S. Open winners: Clark (2023), Fitzpatrick (2022), Rahm (2021), DeChambeau (2020), Woodland (2019)
- Number of holes with water hazards: 1
- Green type: bermudagrass
- Green size: 6,800 square feet
Event and Course Notes
- First time Pinehurst No. 2 has hosted the U.S. Open since 2014 (Martin Kaymer won)
- Kaymer famously used the “Texas Wedge” anytime he was off the green
- Slightly different test than we see for a typical U.S. Open
- While the course is long, it should play firm and fast
- Rather than thick rough, golfers will have to contend with sandy waste areas
- A lot of luck comes into play when hitting into these areas, can get good or bad lies
- Golfers will have options off the tee, can be aggressive or lay back
- Total driving should be more important than raw distance
- Golfers will have a ton of long irons this week, even the bombers
- Only two par 5s on the course and both are over 580 yards
- Raised greens that are also contoured, they will repel errant approach shots
- Very little rough around the greens, which creates tricky tight lie chips
- Scrambling from the fairway might be something to look at this week
- I’m expecting this to be a test of precision and mental fortitude
What to Look For
- Strokes gained approach
- Total driving
- Proximity with long irons (175+ yards)
- Bogey avoidance
- Strokes gained around the green (or scrambling from the fairway)
- Major experience
Core Plays
Scottie Scheffler
DraftKings: $13,000 / pOWN%: 37%
FanDuel: $13,500 / pOWN%: 35%
Total Driving: 2
Strokes Gained Approach: 1
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 2
Strokes Gained Putting: 38
Birdie or Better %: 1
Bogey Avoidance: 1
Even before factoring in the soft DFS pricing this week, Scheffler was a core play for me. He has won 5 of his last 8 starts, has finished in the top 10 in 11 straight starts, and hasn’t finished outside of the top 31 since October of 2022. He’s head and shoulders above everyone when it comes to tee-to-green play, and since switching to a mallet putter, he has now gained strokes putting in 7 of his last 8 events. He’s also one of the best course managers on TOUR. Get him on a golf course, and he is a cheat code. While I have a hard time betting him to win at +333, he will be a staple in my DFS lineups. There’s so much value, that you can pair him with another high-end golfer and still build a quality lineup.
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