PGA Golf Betting Picks for the 2021 Genesis Invitational

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2021-02-24 14:11:31

The California swing of the PGA Tour season continues as golfers make their way to Riviera Country Club for the 2021 Genesis Invitational. A star-studded field takes up the top of the golf betting board at online sportsbooks. Will experience and distance be key or can a young longshot make a name for himself on Sunday?

2021 Genesis Open PGA Golf Betting Preview

The Genesis Invitational will end the string of multi-course events on the PGA Tour schedule. With Bryson DeChambeau’s return to U.S. soil, Brooks Koepka winning the Waste Management, and Jordan Spieth in contention on back-to-back Sundays, there’s no shortage of storylines as golfers arrive at Riviera.

Last week, it was Daniel Berger who walked away with a two-shot victory at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Both Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth finished inside the top five, alongside second-year golfer Maverick McNealy, the solo runner-up. Spieth wasn’t able to grab the win, becoming the first golfer since Daniel Summerhays in 2008 to squander back-to-back 54-hole leads, but nevertheless it’s a good sign that Spieth is finding himself at the top of leaderboards again.

A victory won’t come easy for Spieth, or anyone else for that matter, at Riviera Country Club. This week’s event will be a doozy for all involved, including golf bettors and PGA DFS players. Hosted by Tiger Woods, the Genesis Invitational routinely presents one of the strongest fields of the season. Unfortunately, Tiger will have to sit this one out as he continues to recover from a back injury.

Without further ado, let’s breakdown golf odds and PGA betting picks for the 2020 Genesis Invitational at online sportsbooks.

The 2021 Genesis Invitational— Golf Course

• Riviera Country Club
• Par 71
• 7,322 Yards
• Field: 120 players
• Cut rule: Top 65 plus ties after 36 holes

Genesis Invitational — Past Winners and Runners-Up

• 2020 – Adam Scott (-11)
• 2019 – J.B. Holmes (-14)
• 2018 – Bubba Watson (-12)
• 2017 – Dustin Johnson (-17)
• 2016 – Bubba Watson (-16)
• 2015 – James Hahn (-6)
• 2014 – Bubba Watson (-15)

Course Notes

At 7,322 yards, Riviera Country Club plays longer than it appears on a scorecard. You probably noticed the trend of bombers, like Holmes, Watson and Johnson, finding success here.

Course history and experience at Riviera Country Club appear to play as major factors this week. Over the last 12 years, only one golfer has won the event without having four or more previous starts at Riviera.

The Country Club designed by George Thomas hosted its first professional event in 1951 and will be the home of 2028 Olympics golf. It presents golfers with a challenging test which also has its fair share of scoring opportunities, so long as those playing on the course can shape their shots to successfully navigate various doglegs and dangerous bunkers (no water is on the course).

Golfers can begin their round with a birdie on the 500-yard par 5. It’s the easiest scoring opportunity on the course, with birdies chirping at a massive 61.6% of attempts and bogeys coming in at only 1.8%. That’s as easy as things get, though. Golfers quickly move to a Par 4 that is only slightly shorter than No. 1. Two holes later, Riviera shows off a goliath of a Par 3 stretching 236 yards. Both hole No. 2 and No. 4 are bogeyed roughly one out of every four tries.

With a relatively equal amount of approach shots coming from 150-175, 175-200 and 200+ yards, you want golfers that are reasonably accurate off the tee, good ball strikers from said distances, and can scramble when/if they miss the green.

2020 Genesis Invitational – The Field

All odds referenced herein are from BetMGM and accurate as of Tuesday afternoon unless otherwise stated.

If you’re observant, you noticed the shortened size of this week’s field. As you also probably noted while perusing golf betting odds at online sportsbooks such as DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet, and BetMGM, the Invitational brings in a stronger pedigree than we’ve seen in previous weeks. With the Players Championship just a month away, one could say the Genesis marks the start of the true regular season on the PGA Tour.

2021 Genesis Invitational Betting Favorites

Eight of the top-10 ranked golfers worldwide make their way out to Santa Monica. Tyrell Hatton and Webb Simpson, currently No. 5 and No. 9 respectively, sit this one out. Here’s what the top of the betting board looks like.

Genesis Invitational PGA Golf Betting Picks

Rory McIlroy +1400

1 Unit to Win 14

Dustin Johnson is the best golfer in the world, not Rory McIlroy, but I can’t bite on Johnson’s short odds in this strong of a field. Instead, I’d rather take 14-to-1 odds on the Irishman. Rory hasn’t been gaining as many strokes on his approach shots as we’d like to see, but we know it’s only a matter of time before he dials in his irons. McIlroy also has strong finishes in each of his last two appearances (5th and 4th, respectively).

[Bet McIlroy +1400 at BetMGM]

Bryson DeChambeau +1800

1 Unit to Win 18

It’s kind of crazy to think about the odds we were getting on DeChambeau this time last year. At this very tournament, DeChambeau had just introduced his new physique and was getting very little respect in the golf betting markets. His current +1600 price tag is a bit shorter than the +6000 odd we were betting on a year ago, but that’s what happens when a golfer has as dominant of a season as he did in 2020. It also helps to know that Dechambeau finished 5th at Riviera, preceded by a 15th-place finish in 2019.

[Bet Dechambeau +1800 at FanDuel Sportsbook]

Bubba Watson +4500

Bet 1/2 Unit to Win 22.5

Bubba Watson is one of three golfers who have won three times at Riviera. His course history is top of the class, and he’s mostly been striking the ball well, except for his performance at the Farmers Insurance Open a few weeks ago. Watson is sure to be a popular DFS play. If you’re fading him in that format, one way to hedge is to bet on him at the sportsbooks. +4500 is much nicer than the +2000 odds he entered and subsequently missed the cut with last year.

[Bet Watson +4500 at BetMGM]

Scottie Scheffler +5000

1/2 Unit to win 25

Scottie started the year with a 13th-place at the Tournament of Champions before making a club change and missing back-to-back cuts at the American Express and Farmers. Scheffler appeared to be more comfortable with his new clubs at the Waste Management Open, finishing 7th. A couple of more weeks have passed, which could mean we’re in store for an even better performance from Scheffler and his new clubs.

[Bet Scheffler +5000 at PointsBet]

Longshot Golf Bets for the Genesis Invitational

Risking 0.10 Unit on each

Keegan Bradley +20000 at PointsBet

Cam Champ +25000 at DraftKings

2021 Genesis Invitational PGA Betting Card

2021 PGA Golf Betting Results: -12.3 Units

Image Credit: Imagn