Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Game 4 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Phillies Odds | -135 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | +115 |
| Over/Under | 9.5 |
| Date | Fri, Oct. 20 |
| Time | 8:07 p.m. |
| TV | TBS |
On Friday, the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks will play Game 5 of this year’s National League Championship Series. Philadelphia will hand the ball to Cristopher Sanchez as they look to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. Arizona will open with Joe Mantiply, looking to even the series. The first pitch is set for 8:07 p.m. ET on TBS.
Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Phillies as -135 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 9.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Philadelphia Phillies
Cristopher Sanchez gets the ball for Philadelphia in Game 4
Cristopher Sanchez has thrown only nine pitches in the last 25 days, but he will be entrusted with starting Game 4 for the Phillies on Friday. Sanchez performed well during the month of September, with a 3.33 ERA, 3.13 FIP, and 1.07 WHIP across four starts and five appearances. However, it seems as though he will be in for a short outing in this game, with Matt Strah, Taijuan Walker, and a deep Philadelphia bullpen behind him.
At most, Sanchez is likely to face the order one time today. During the regular season, opponent’s batting average jumped from .231 to .265 from his first time through the order to his second time through the order. Sanchez also saw his strikeout rate plummet and his walk rate double when facing the order for the second time. He should be on a short leash in this spot.
Phillies offense hoping for bounce back on Friday
Yesterday, Philadelphia’s offense scored only one run, and it came on a wild pitch late in the game. Reportedly, the Phillies did not take batting practice on the field prior to Game 3, which is not uncommon for an afternoon start time. Nevertheless, it could have played a factor in Philadelphia’s offensive struggles, especially with them transitioning from an outdoor venue to an indoor venue, which is much darker, making it harder to initially pick up the ball according to some players.
Overall, there is no reason to panic for Philadelphia fans. The Phillies have an .883 OPS as a team in nine games during October, which is substantially better than any other offense. Philadelphia also has 11 stolen bases in those eight games, which is three more than any other team.
We said it yesterday, but it is worth repeating – this group possesses a rare combination of power, speed, and camaraderie. They will bounce back sooner rather than later.
Philadelphia bullpen in good shape
Other than an Austin Riley eighth-inning home run in Game 2 of the Wild Card round, Philadelphia’s bullpen has been phenomenal to begin these playoffs. Heading into the Game 3 of the NLCS, Jose Alvarado, Orion Kerkering, Craig Kimbrel, Seranthony Dominguez, and Matt Strahm had combined for 21.0 scoreless innings in relief during the team’s first eight postseason contests.
Yesterday, Craig Kimbrel had command issues in the ninth inning, which led to him blowin the game. Still, this group received two scoreless frames from Jose Alvarado and Jeff Hoffman bounced back with a scoreless appearance. Manager Rob Thompson has plenty of high-caliber arms at his disposal in Game 4, with only Kimbrel likely to be unavailable or available as a last resort.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Bullpen game for Arizona
Joe Mantiply will be the first arm on the bump for Arizona on Friday, in what is likely to be a bullpen game. Mantiply had a 4.62 ERA, 3.82 xERA, and 3.84 FIP during the regular season. He has a fastball that sits in the low 90s and is among the slowest in all of baseball. He was exceptionally strong against left-handed batters this year, with a 1.92 FIP, but had a 5.49 FIP against right-handed hitters – likely making him a candidate to face only the first three batters of the game today.
Arizona offense is nowhere to be found
In our Game 1 preview, we said that, “Unquestionably, the Diamondbacks have the worst offense remaining in the playoffs.” We doubled down on that statement ahead of Game 2, tripled-down on that statement ahead of Game 3, and we are going all-in on that statement going into Game 4.
Following the All-Star break, Arizona ranked 24th in OPS and 27th in ISO against left-handed pitching. During that time period, they ranked 23rd in OPS and 26th in ISO against right-handed pitching.
More concerning for the Diamondbacks has been their lack of aggressiveness on the basepaths during the first three games of the NLCS. Yesterday was the latest example in which Arizona proved themselves completely incapable of out-hitting Philadelphia.
Arizona has scored only five runs in 27 innings to begin the NLCS. Even in a favorable matchup against Sanchez and a bulk reliever in Game 4, expectations for this lineup should be very low.
All-hands on deck for Game 4
Brandon Pfaadt changed the trajectory of Arizona’s series on Thursday by covering 5.2 innings of work in Game 3. As a result, Manager Tony Lovullo did not have to completely eviscerate his bullpen with three consecutive days of games lined up.
Still, Paul Sewald threw 21 pitches and both Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson made their way on the field as well. Everyone is available again for a pivotal Game 4, but it is never easy for relief pitchers to throw on back-to-back days, especially against a talented lineup.
Asking this arm barn to cover nine innings on Friday evening is a tall order.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies – Picks & Predictions
The Philadelphia Phillies lost yesterday, but they played their worst game of the postseason and still managed to hold a lead into the seventh inning. The Phillies are not sending their best arms to the mound in Game 4, but they still have the better offense and Manager Rob Thompson is better equipped to handle a bullpen day than his counterpart. Philadelphia is once again a worthwhile risk.
PICK: Phillies Moneyline (-135, Fanatics Sportsbook)