Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Game 5 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Phillies Odds | -130 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | +110 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Sat, Oct. 21 |
| Time | 8:07 p.m. |
| TV | TBS |
Following an electric come-from-behind win yesterday, the Arizona Diamondbacks have resurrected their season to even the National League Championship Series at two games each against the Philadelphia Phillies. Tonight, these two clubs will play a pivotal Game 5 at Chase Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:07 p.m. ET, with Zack Wheeler and Zac Gallen on the bump for their respective teams.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Phillies as -130 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 9.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Philadelphia Phillies
Zack Wheeler gets the ball for Philadelphia in Game 5
On Saturday, Zack Wheeler will be making his 10th career postseason start, hoping to build on what has been an incredible start to this year’s postseason. In three trips to the mound, Wheeler owns a 2.37 ERA and has allowed only 12 baserunners in 19.0 innings of work. In his career, Wheeler owns a 2.63 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in 54.2 innings during the playoffs.
Tonight, he has a tough task facing the same Arizona lineup for the second time in less than a week. Nevertheless, Wheeler has proven himself capable of effectively navigating hyper-proximity matchups. Most recently, he completed 6.0 innings while allowing only one earned run to the Atlanta Braves on September 18 in a hyper-proximity situation.
The Diamondbacks offense is nowhere near as talented as the Braves. Wheeler has been throwing the ball extremely well and is more than capable of delivering another strong performance this evening.
Phillies offense looking to take series lead
Philadelphia has been the best offensive team in this year’s postseason, and it has not been particularly close. Their .875 OPS is nearly 100 points higher than the next best team. Philadelphia has hit an MLB-best 20 home runs and scored a league-high 52 runs in their first 10 playoff games. They also lead all teams with 12 stolen bases.
This lineup has a rare combination of speed and power, which makes them a threat to explode on a nightly basis. After struggling in Game 3, the Phillies’ bats scored five runs and had three extra-base hits in Game 4. Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and company are likely to do their part this evening as Philadelphia seeks a 3-2 series lead.
Thomson forced to answer for inexplicable bullpen management
In yesterday’s game preview, we mentioned that Craig Kimbrel was unlikely to be available after throwing 24 pitches on Thursday in Game 3. During the second half of the regular season, Kimbrel posted a 5.00 ERA when pitching on consecutive days, making him a poor option on zero days of rest. Nevertheless, Thomson went to Kimbrel to protect a two-run lead in the eighth inning, and then left Kimbrel out on the mound long enough to allow three earned runs in an eventual loss.
It’s not the first time that Thomson has mismanaged his bullpen during these playoffs, but this was certainly the costliest mistake – especially because he went to Jose Alvarado for the final out of the eighth inning anyway after claiming to be saving him for Game 5.
Heading into tonight, Philadelphia has used Craig Kimbrel, Jeff Hoffman, Jose Alvarado, and Orion Kerkering in back-to-back games. Seranthony Dominguez threw 23 pitches yesterday. Matt Strahm and Gregory Soto each tossed at least 14 pitches in the loss as well.
There is a lot of talent in this Phillies bullpen, but none of it is well-rested for Saturday’s action. The late innings should be an adventure for this unit.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Zac Gallen hoping for bounce-back performance
Zac Gallen was hit hard in the series opener against Philadelphia, surrendering five earned runs in five innings of work. However, he has a great opportunity to make amends for that effort on Saturday, pitching in his home ballpark.
During the regular season, Gallen was at his best at home – posting a 2.32 FIP and a 1.03 WHIP across 102.0 innings of work. Gallen’s strikeout rate was 7.7% better at home than on the road, and his walk rate was 2.0% better.
Gallen has a tough matchup tonight against Philadelphia, but he has as many factors in his favor as possible. Expect him to have a long leash tonight after Arizona’s bullpen game yesterday in Game 4.
Arizona offense still struggling
In our Game 1 preview, we said that, “Unquestionably, the Diamondbacks have the worst offense remaining in the playoffs.” We doubled down on that statement ahead of Game 2, tripled-down on that statement ahead of Game 3, and we went all-in on that statement going into Game 4. If there is a way to be even more emphatic with that statement ahead of Game 5, that’s how I feel.
Following the All-Star break, the Diamondbacks ranked 23rd in OPS and 26th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Though Arizona managed six runs in Game 4, four of those six runs came primarily as a result of manager Rob Thomson misusing his bullpen, which was overtaxed.
Arizona, once again, did not even attempt a stolen base in yesterday’s win. Facing a much better pitcher in Game 5, this lineup is likely to struggle early. The late innings could be a different story, depending on who Philadelphia uses out of their bullpen.
Arizona bullpen in poor shape heading into Game 5
Heading into Game 5, manager Torey Lovullo has an interesting internal debate to settle: Does he sacrifice tonight’s battle to give himself a chance to win the war (also known as the NLCS)? The Diamondbacks have only two talented relievers in their bullpen, Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel. Both Sewald and Ginkel have thrown in back-to-back days, which makes it particularly risky to use them in Game 5. Ryan Thompson is a respectable arm in this bullpen, but he has also thrown in back-to-back days. Andrew Saalfrank, Miguel Castro, Kyle Nelson, Luis Frias, and Joe Mantiply each tossed at least 14 pitches in yesterday’s win.
Simply, there are zero rested arms behind Zac Gallen tonight. The arms that have not thrown in consecutive days are not arms that home fans want to see on the mound in Game 5 of the NLCS. It will be interesting to see how Lovullo manages this unit on Saturday.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks – Picks & Predictions
Despite losing back-to-back games, there is still little doubt that the Phillies are the more talented team in every aspect of the game in this series. Philadelphia once again has the better starting pitcher, the better offense, and the better bullpen heading into Game 5. If manager Rob Thomson simply gets out of the way tonight, Philadelphia should have a 3-2 series lead heading back home with a chance to punch their ticket to the World Series on Monday.
PICK: Phillies Moneyline (-130, Fanatics Sportsbook)