Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Game 2 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds
| Marlins Odds | +140 |
| Phillies Odds | -160 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Wed, Oct. 4 |
| Time | 8:08 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Tonight, the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies will play Game 2 of their National League Wild Card series from Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia took home a win in the series opener by a final score of 4-1 and can punch their ticket to the next round with a win this evening. Miami will send Braxton Garrett to the hill with their season on the line, who will be opposed by Aaron Nola for Philadelphia. The first pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Phillies as -160 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 7.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Miami Marlins
Garrett in a tough spot with Miami’s season on the line
Following the All-Star break, Braxton Garrett posted a 3.61 ERA, 4.06 FIP, and 1.16 WHIP across 13 trips to the mound. Though his surface-level statistics are respectable, it is evident that a career-high 159.2 innings of work led to some late-season fatigue, which is likely to carry over into the postseason. In his last nine turns through the rotation, Garrett rarely missed bats, with an 8.0% swinging-strike rate. He allowed contact on 92.9% of pitches that were swung at in the strike zone, which was 7.1% higher than his numbers prior to that point. Though his velocity remained strong into September, his spin rates on every pitch other than his slider took a slight downturn in the final month of regular season action. Facing a dangerous Philadelphia lineup on Wednesday, Garrett could be looking at an early exit.
Fish offense hopeful for bounce-back performance in Game 2
In the final month of the regular season, the Marlins’ offense ranked 7th in OPS, 10th in ISO, 20th in walk percentage, and 10th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Yet, bettors did not see anything close to a top-10 offense show up on Tuesday night for Miami. The team scored only one run and did draw a single walk against the entire Philadelphia pitching staff. Aaron Nola had an uneven season, offering hope that this offense can put together a better showing in Game 2. However, Luis Arraez is clearly not at 100 percent health, and the rest of this lineup lacks significant playoff experience. There is a wide range of potential outcomes for this offense on Wednesday.
Expect to see Tanner Scott on Wednesday
In yesterday’s game preview, we highlighted Tanner Scott and mentioned that he was named National League Reliever of the Month for September, collecting nine saves in 14 appearances to help Miami secure a playoff position. Since the beginning of August, he has allowed only three earned runs in 27.1 innings – which translates to a 0.99 ERA, 1.76 FIP, 0.70 WHIP. Well, he did not get to pitch in Game 1, with Miami never threatening to gain a lead. In Game 2, all bets are off with the season on the line.
Overall, the Miami arm barn ranked only 18th in FIP, 25th in WHIP, 15th in strikeout rate, and 8th in walk percentage across the final month of the regular season. Similar to the way Tito Francona used Andrew Miller in 2016, it would not be surprising at all to see Scott enter this ballgame as early as the fifth inning, if the moment presents itself.
Philadelphia Phillies
What to expect from Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola had, perhaps, the most befuddling season of any pitcher in the big leagues. Coming off of another dominant campaign in 2022 and entering his free agency season, Nola has posted career-worst numbers across the board. Though he still flashed brilliance at times with 13 starts of two earned runs or less, he also proved himself wholly unreliable with 15 outings in which he allowed at least four earned runs. Nola had a 4.92 ERA and a 3.65 FIP across his final 11 regular season starts, allowing at least four earned runs five times in that span. It is anyone’s guess which version of Nola shows up on Wednesday. One thing is for sure – Miami’s offense has plenty of power potential, which is a concern for Nola, who allowed a career-worst 32 home runs in 2023.
Phillies’ hope to continue dominance against left-handed pitching
Philadelphia posted impressive season-long numbers against left-handed pitching, ranking 8th in OPS and 5th in ISO. Yesterday, the Phillies’ offense scored three runs off of Jesus Luzardo in the first four innings of the ballgame. Tonight, they have the familiarity of having seen a left-hander less than 24 hours ago, coupled with the fact that Braxton Garrett has struggled mightily in recent weeks. Bryce Harper and company should be able to put some runs on the board this evening.
Philadelphia’s bullpen in good shape to close out the series
During the final month of the regular season, Philadelphia’s arm barn ranked 6th in FIP, 8th in WHIP, 4th in strikeout rate, and 19th in walk percentage. In Game 1, this unit delivered 2.1 scoreless innings, allowing only two baserunners while throwing 24 of 36 pitches for strikes. Notably, none of the relievers used on Tuesday threw more than 17 pitches, meaning that everyone should be ready to go if needed to close out a series win in Game 2.
Phillies vs. Marlins – Picks & Predictions
We recommended the under in yesterday’s ballgame, which cashed, but the game script is likely to be much different in Game 2. The Phillies had 14 at-bats with runners in scoring position last night but managed only three hits. Zack Wheeler looked as good as he had all season yesterday, utilizing all of his pitches to keep Miami off-balance. The caliber of tonight’s starting pitchers is significantly worse than it was in Game 1, and the weather conditions are slightly more favorable, with slightly warmer temperatures and a modest wind blowing out towards left-center field. If either Braxton Garrett or Aaron Nola struggle tonight, this game could fly over the total.
PICK: Over 7.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)