Best PrizePicks NBA Player Picks Today: Value on Thomas, Gafford, and Melton
Just 6 games on the board, which is light work for a typical NBA Wednesday. We could see some moving and shaking with several key players listed as questionable coming into the day, so it could be advantageous to get your PrizePicks squares in early before the news hits.
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NBA PrizePicks Predictions Today
Cam Thomas More Than 26.5 Points
Because the Nets are apparently resting regulars tonight against the Bucks, I’m scratching Mikal Bridges more than 1.5 made 3-pointers off the board. Instead, I’ll be pivoting to Cam Thomas, who is going to get all of the usage tonight for Brooklyn. Cameron Johnson, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Nic Claxton have already been ruled out, and there’s certainly a chance Mikal Bridges hits the bench for the night after starting the game in order to keep his consecutive games streak alive.
Regardless of what happens with Bridges, Thomas is going to eat offensively. He’s already the Nets’ usage leader for the season at north of 31%. He’s seen a 2.7% usage boost up to 34.1% with Dinwiddie and Johnson on the bench. Taking Bridges off the floor would presumably send even more usage flowing Thomas’ way.
This game is almost surely going to get out of hand in the Bucks’ favor, but I still expect Thomas to shoot the ball enough to do damage while he’s out there. “Passing” isn’t in Thomas’ dictionary.
- Play: Thomas – More Than 26.5 Points
Daniel Gafford More Than 11.5 Points
I expected Daniel Gafford to really take off this season with Kristaps Porzingis no longer hogging center minutes for the Wizards. Gafford is in the midst of a solid season, averaging 11.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, and more than 2 blocks per game for Washington.
It’s a bit disappointing to see he’s only averaging about 25 minutes per game, but the playing time is on the rise. Gafford is playing 27 minutes per game so far in December, and he’s topped 30 minutes in 3 of the last 5 games. That includes last night’s 31-minute effort against the Magic. He’s not a major source of usage with guys like Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole handling most of the offense, but he’s converting the few attempts he gets. Gafford’s 70% field goal percentage is the second-highest in the league behind only Jakob Poeltl (70.6%).
The Raptors have been one of the NBA’s worst defensive teams this month, and the Wiz have a healthy 116.5 implied team total in this one. We have Gafford projected for 27 minutes here, but there’s certainly room for a little upside there if things break his way.
- Play: Gafford – More Than 11.5 Points
De’Anthony Melton More Than 3.5 Assists
I originally had a Nic Claxton blurb here, but the Nets decided to give him the night off. So, let’s pivot to De’Anthony Melton assists, shall we? Melton plays a big role for the 76ers with Joel Embiid sidelined, as he will be tonight in Orlando. We saw Melton log 36 minutes on Christmas in Miami with Embiid, and there’s room for upside on his current 32-minute projection tonight.
Tyrese Maxey takes the keys to the offense without Embiid, but Melton still features prominently. His 21% assist rate is the third-highest on the team with Embiid off the floor, behind only Maxey (25.2%) and Patrick Beverley (22.3%). Melton is averaging 4 assists per game in the 4 games Embiid has missed so far this year, including a 5-dime effort just the other day.
The minutes should be there in what should be a competitive game, so this is a solid value tonight.
- Play: Melton – More Than 3.5 Assists
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