NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Raiders-Lions DraftKings Picks

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NFL Showdown season continues with the Raiders at Lions on Monday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.

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Coming off a blowout loss to the Ravens last week, the 5-2 Lions will look to bounce back in a big way at home against the 3-4 Raiders, who are also coming off a blowout loss to the Bears. Amon-Ra St. Brown popped up on the injury yesterday and is questionable with an illness (Update: ASB is now probable), while David Montgomery remains out with his ribs injury. Jimmy Garoppolo returns for the Raiders after missing time with a concussion.

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NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Raiders at Lions Week 8

Currently, this game is sitting at a 46.5 total, with the Lions favored by 7.5 points. This big of a spread seems to suggest than Amon-Ra is likely to play, along with the expectation that the Lions are much better than what they showed against BAL last week, and with the home crowd behind them on another National stage, should handily beat the Raiders.

Quarterback

With a projected team total of 27, Jared Goff ($10,400) is a cash game must-play in my opinion. There is a chance that the Lions D + Gibbs put up a bunch of points early, and the Lions don’t have to throw much late, but I think the Goff to Gibbs connection makes it very risky to not include Goff in at least a flex spot, as we could see something similar to the Chargers yesterday where the Herbert-Ekeler connection was needed to cash.

The matchup and likely game script is definitely in the favor of Jimmy Garoppolo ($9,400), as the Lions are a pass-funnel defense allowing under 80 rush yards/game and over 240 pass yards/game. As a big road underdog, Jimmy G will likely be forced into 40+ pass attempts playing from behind most of the game, and with a variety of weapons, I think he’s a solid cash game target.

Running Back

Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,600) is one of the biggest mis-pricings of the season for a Showdown slate and is a slam dunk cash game play that I like using in the captain spot. He’s coming off a 20-touch, 126 total-yard game with a TD, and that includes 9 receptions on 10 targets against a tough Ravens defense. He should absolutely be priced closer to $10k in this matchup with Montgomery out again, as the Raiders are allowing 129 rush yards/game, and the Lions could be feeding Gibbs late with a big lead.

Josh Jacobs ($8,400) is cheap but is in a tough spot tonight against a 2nd ranked Lions rush defense. The matchup plus the likely scenario where he’s game-scripted out of 15+ carries is making him just a GPP target for me, and I prefer going with a couple of bring-backs from the Raiders pass game in cash games.

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams ($10,800) is expensive and hasn’t gone for over 16 FP in four straight weeks, but this is a matchup where he could definitely break out again. If you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry) he should absolutely be in plenty of captain spots and other lineup variations with and without Garoppolo, and if you can fit him in cash games and like your overall lineup, then jam him in. Jakobi Meyers ($8,200) is one of the best values of the game, as he’s seen 10+ targets in four of six games, has a TD in three straight games, and comes at a huge discount to Adams. In cash games, I’m leaning towards a Garoppolo/Meyers stack for my Raiders exposure, and if you need the salary savings, I don’t mind Meyers in the captain spot too.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($11,200) is the most expensive player tonight but is questionable with an illness, so I will likely be spending my salary elsewhere in my main build. If St. Brown is active, he is obviously a potential game-breaker and should be used in GPPs, but with the chance of the Lions getting a big lead, his illness limiting his usage, plus the fact that the Raiders pass defense is actually ranked 7th in yards allowed, I think there are too many ways for him to not pay off his price and I’m not loving enough extreme value to fit him in easily. Josh Reynolds ($6,200), Jameson Williams ($5,200), and Kalif Raymond ($2,800) would all be excellent targets if St. Brown ends up out, but even if he plays I don’t mind using a couple of them to stack with Goff in cash games.

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Tight End

Sam LaPorta ($7,400) is about as steady as it gets for TEs, with a likely 6 target floor and a good shot at a TD. If Amon-Ra is out I think he’s close to a must-play in cash games, and makes for a solid contrarian captain play in GPPs.

Michael Mayer ($3,800) disappointed last week, so his salary has stayed in check, and with the likelihood of the Raiders having to throw a lot this game, I think he’s a fine cash game value target if you need to fill a final flex spot for under $4k. Austin Hooper ($800) is just a GPP flier who hasn’t seen more than 2 targets in any game this year.

Defense / Special Teams

I’m not looking to use the Raiders DST or their kicker in cash games or many GPP teams for that matter, but the Lions DST ($5,000) and Riley Patterson ($4,800) are definitely worth having GPP exposure to and are both fine flex plays in cash games.

Monday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy

My favorite builds tonight are 4-2 Lions stacks, with the Garoppolo/Meyers stack as the best value bring back from the Raiders. I think Gibbs in the captain spot will be the optimal play most of the time in this game environment, especially at his super cheap salary, and I like using a couple of cheap Lions WRs or LaPorta over St. Brown in cash games to help fit in both QBs.

DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings

1. Jahmyr Gibbs – He’s about $2k too cheap, and is one of the easiest cash game locks for a showdown slate this year. Fantastic captain play too.

2. Jakobi Meyers – My favorite Raiders value for cash games, and should be a big factor if this game stays competitive with the Lions defense focusing on Adams.

3. Jared Goff – Great shot at a couple of short passes to Gibbs going for long TDs, and I think he has a 2-3 TD floor today.

4. Jimmy Garoppolo – Matchup and likely game script should help him reach value. There’s a good chance he’ll be needed in optimals if he throws for 2+ TDs.

5. Sam LaPorta / Cheap Lions WRs – I prefer using a couple of guys from this group over St. Brown in cash games, as the salary savings are needed to fit at least three of the four guys ranked above.

NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Monday Night Football

Check out LineupHQ for this Showdown slate! It’s your one-stop shop for all of the tools you need to build and edit multiple lineups with one click, such as excluding certain players, adjusting your ownership and stack preferences, and doing any mass late-swap edits.

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About the Author

naapstermaan
Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan)

Erik Wardenburg (aka naapstermaan) has been playing fantasy sports since 2005 and DFS since 2010. He went to UC Davis, majoring in Economics, and began working with RotoGrinders in 2015. He currently manages the lineups page for MLB, NBA, and NFL, provides Consensus Value Rankings for MLB and NBA, and manages The Situation Room for NBA. Erik has made multiple Live Finals in MLB, NBA, and NFL on a variety of sites and enjoys grinding small/medium stakes every day. Follow Naap on Twitter – @naapstermaan