Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Game 6 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Rangers vs. Astros Odds
| Rangers Odds | +100 |
| Astros Odds | -120 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 22 |
| Time | 8:03 PM ET |
| TV | FS1 |
On Sunday night, the Houston Astros will have an opportunity to secure their second consecutive pennant when they host the Texas Rangers for Game 6 of the American League Championship Series. Framber Valdez will get the ball for the Astros, who will be opposed by Nathan Eovaldi for the Rangers. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03 PM ET on FS1.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Astros as -120 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Texas Rangers
What to expect from Nathan Eovaldi
Nathan Eovaldi has performed exceptionally well during his first three postseason starts this season, but this will be his toughest test yet, facing a dangerous Houston lineup for the second time in less than a week.
Eovaldi has a diverse pitch mix, which theoretically makes him better equipped to handle a hyper-proximity matchup than other pitchers who rely more extensively on only one or two pitches. However, his most recent hyper-proximity matchup does not support that conclusion, with him allowing 7 earned runs in 3.1 innings to the Seattle Mariners on September 29.
Eovaldi will be on an extremely short leash this evening, with the Rangers’ season hanging in the balance. Do not be surprised if his postseason dominance comes to an end tonight.
Texas offense with their backs against the wall
Following a strong start to these playoffs, Texas has seen their bats go cold in the ALCS. Entering play on Sunday, the Rangers offense has an underwhelming .678 OPS in this series, which is the 2nd-worst mark of any team remaining in baseball’s version of the Final Four. The only team with a lower OPS than them is Arizona, which faces a similar hole heading into Game 6 against Philadelphia.
In Game 5, Texas was a disappointing 2-for-11 with runners in scoring position, as they continued to struggle in key situations. Their ability to execute with men on base could determine whether they go home tonight or whether they get to play again tomorrow.
Trust issues in Texas
At this point in the postseason, it is abundantly clear that Manager Bruce Bochy has zero confidence in anyone other than Josh Sborz, Aroldis Chapman, and Jose Leclerc in his bullpen. The problem with that situation is that the Rangers are overly reliant on their starting pitcher getting through 6 innings, and even then, they have no margin for error in the latter frames. Leclerc was asked to get 4 outs in Game 5, which proved to be too tall of a task for him. He allowed 3 runs and threw 30 pitches, blowing Texas’ chance at a 3-2 series lead.
Tonight, all hands are on deck for this relief corps. Whether Bochy wants to or not, he is likely going to need to go the bullpen prior to the 7th inning, with Eovaldi facing the same lineup for the second time in less than a week. This is an area of concern for Texas fans.
Houston Astros
Framber Valdez gets the ball for Houston in Game 6
Framber Valdez has struggled in each of his first two starts this October, but he has performed well in the postseason prior to 2023, offering hope for a rebound performance this evening. Last season, Valdez had a 1.44 ERA across 25 innings of work, helping to lead Houston to the World Series. He has an 11.57 ERA through two starts this fall, but he can make amends quickly in Game 6 if he is able to deliver 5 or 6 quality innings.
Facing the same lineup twice in the same week is always a challenge for a pitcher, who does not have the same element of deception, with the batters having seen his stuff so recently. In Valdez’s most recent hyper-proximity start, he allowed 6 earned runs to the Kansas City Royals on September 22.
Valdez is talented enough to put together a strong outing this evening, but there are obvious risks here, considering his general body of work from the last month.
Can Houston bats stay hot at home?
In four home games during these playoffs, Houston is averaging only 3 runs per contest. During the regular season, the Astros ranked 25th in OPS and 22nd in ISO in their home ballpark, which was in stark contrast to their production on the road.
Houston has scored 23 runs in their last three games, but all of those swings were taken on the road, a place where this lineup has been significantly more comfortable so far this season. Reportedly, there has been a change to the batter’s eye at Minute Maid Park, which has negatively impacted Houston’s offense in 2023.
All eyes will be on this offense to see how they respond in Game 6 against a pitcher who dominated them earlier in this ALCS.
Astros bullpen ready to punch ticket to World Series
Following a scheduled off day on Saturday, Houston’s relief corps is in great shape heading into Game 6. Ryan Pressly threw 24 pitches on Friday, which was the most of any member of the Houston bullpen. Manager Dusty Baker was able to avoid using any of his relief options in consecutive days while on the road in Texas, which means there are no fatigue concerns to be worried about with this group coming home with a chance to win the pennant. Baker has all of his arm-barn options rested and available for the next two days, if necessary.
Rangers vs. Astros – Picks & Predictions
If there is anything bettors learned during the last three games of this series, it is that neither of these bullpens can be trusted to do their job in relief of the starters. As a result, we are isolating the first 5 innings again on Sunday. Following an off day on Saturday, both of these offenses could find themselves slightly out of sync to start the game. The Astros have the better offense on paper, but they have struggled mightily at Minute Maid Park in 2023. The under in the first 5 innings appears to be a strong look.
PICK: Under 4.5 – First 5 Innings (-105, Fanatics Sportsbook)